Member Info for JoeSoap

Adrianz, excellent interpretation but did you also note that Vertom (aka KO) had provided a $350,000 loan, that will have sweetened the cash flow [start of another confetti option, or will it be written off as his share of the joint $5M loan?]
and that the current production is less than the H1 average per day.

Who are they advancing the drilling capital to? Do they not own enough functioning rigs, or are they contracting labour? I have previously questioned how many wells they can man 24/7, but this now seems to suggest they are capital constrained, as the "board maintained the temporary cost reduction first introduced in H1 2020." and the wells need continual maintainance to flow at the "rated capacity", hence the falling production. The new Block 8 went from upto 800 -> c.110, without a detailed time interval.
Is the $5M in the accounts? Loans provided is - cf 271 in H1/21.

pauldrayton, think you have missed the context of the post; the comparison with Longboat was not about their respective fields, rather about the communication and, as stated, their reasoning. Their drill failed to meet their objective. Period.
However, they have communicated an understanding of the situation and therefore plan a sidetrack with the learning applied. The PI can now make informed decisions.
Compare to i3E, where they announce the spud and yet resolutely declined to comment on the reason for the change of plan to add a sidetrack well which had been RNSed by their partner 'in the success case' and was included in the permit paperwork, now visible to all.
imo, that is an own goal by a management team trying to engender investor confidence and show that they are not the same guys that failed with Liberator and that they can be trusted.

Many here and on EOG have made reference to the 'success' of this drill, even if they had not appreciated that the 'success case' would likely have a longer timeline to first oil than a shared link with Tain to the Bleo Holm fpso, assuming Serenity and Tain were both considered to be commercial.
Indeed, Thursday afternoon even Spike said 'Let’s see - hope first for Serenity success.' amongst his interesting conjectural postings.

But what does 'success' mean? What is the "success case"?
Sure, on time to budget and no LTIs but beyond that?

afaik, all i3E have said is they need to show an average of 40ft from the 11ft at SA01 to the western edge of the field, to give the 200mmstb case'.
EOG have been more forthcoming.[Meet the Team, June 2022]
o The reservoir is made up of high quality channel sands and the key uncertainty of the
appraisal well is reservoir presence, quality and thickness
and
o Objective is to prove another 130ft of oil column in
the Captain Sandstone sequence at the SA-02
location over that encountered in the discovery well 13/23c-10
o 130 ft oil column with a prognosed sand thickness of
40ft will support the Serenity field P50 case of 197MMstb STOIIP

What would 30ft mean?
Is that success or failure for you? Or for their model prognosis, and for the western appraisal SA-03 case, and in SP terms??

Some may have seen the Longboat RNS on Friday and their reasoning for going for a sidetrack.
[https://investegate.co.uk/longboat-energy-plc--lbe-/rns/oswig-well-delivers-positive-initial-results/202209230700073791A/] Their SP closed up.

Then we have the spud RNS with the information that "the well will be plugged and abandoned after completion of all drilling operations” which caused much consternation. And still no word from the BoD about a possible sidetrack that EOG had RNSed on 9th September as the reason for their funding arrangement from fellow Wressle partner, UJO.
But now we can see that while we were posting about the spud, it seems that Petrofac were submitting amending documentation for the sidetrack.
A sidetrack that was mentioned in the base approval dated 9th September, submitted in July and obviously planned earlier.
Majid had spoken of two vertical appraisals and then two horizontal producers previously.

The sidetrack cost would be 75/25 split, assuming that the cost is on top of the £15M cap [budgeted cost $US 17.7 million (GBP£14.2 million) ie GBP£16 million today], together with the fall in oil price, that will be eating into that cash pile which some expect to share in this year.

So why are the BoD trying to run a covert operation with information suppressed from PIs but available to those in the industry, in both Canada and the UK?

jimo
joe

@Dan1605, they were awarded to Turner Pope, together with 'fee shares' totalling 2,692,308, for the Feb/Mar 2021 raise.

However, it seems you have overlooked the 12,142,667 Broker Warrants issued for the March 2022 raise, where TP got a further 417,667 and Tennyson 11,725,000. There are still many to come, and we will not know which tranche were cashed in until we see the accounts and as they were after their financial year end, then that could be October 2023 by which time all of them could have been converted!

@ Aimster & donalb, this is a repost from 24 August:
"Stena Don has been anchored at this location for several weeks where it is working for Repsol Sinopec Resources on the producing Blake field.
It is very close to the wellhead for 13/24a-B2Z which is being re-entered and for a sidetrack, -B2Y.
The well programme for -B2Z was foreshortened as it was found to be a dry hole with no commercially viable hydrocarbons.
The nearby i3E Liberator East drills similarly disappointed, leading to the relinquishment of their P1987 Licence.

The Serenity find that EOG have farmed into is in the P2358north licence. The 13/23c-10 well is around 7 miles further north than Stena Don's current position and the proposed appraisal drill, SA-02, that EOG is co-funding is a couple of miles to the west of Well SA-01 (13/23c-10).

Reference to the map on page 10 of the June presentation 'Meet the Team' shows all of these locations.
Co-ordinates for wells are available here: https://itportal.nstauthority.co.uk/edufox5live/fox/edu/WONS_WELLBORE_SEARCH_PUBLIC

Hope that clarifies the current situation: more patience needed."

Did you find the Proactive Transformational Serenity interview?
Majid outlines the need to establish the whether the field is also connected to Tain and the development.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/905864/i3-energy-team-discuss-transformational-discovery-at-serenity-905864.html
He also shares their confidence in well 11 on Liberty having reworked the data set...
The Licence was relinquished.

Some big movers today on potential in advance of the actual statement
https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/sectors/fossil-fuels/

KK it looks like they had to chip the 250 off that large iceberg sell before declaring yours as they couldn't risk the bid rising as a result of your purchase before actually closing the sell and thereby eliminating their commission!
We don't know how big the iceberg is, or who owns it, but it keeps feeding the buys. jimo

@Ambiguity Historically the local oil traders have 'paid' for the oil in advance of delivery, which has kept the company afloat.

So what was in that RNS that meant it could not be released earlier and that it had to be delayed until the Friday before a Bank Holiday?
No, me neither: there was no current news!
The expected weather conditions were responsible for the delays to the projects and together with pricing volatilty has resulted in a necessary re-forecasting of NOI, down 17% from 241 to approx 200 [note they dare not suggest it begins with a 1, lol].
A 9.4% decrease is attributed to the softening in full-year 2022 commodity pricing predictions since the May forecast, and while inflationary pressures are predicted to increase costs (royalties, opex, transportation and processing) by 3.0%, it suggests that the remainder is due to reduced production from the delays, even though they will still deliver peak 2022 production above 24,000 boepd after adjusting well-timing.

afaik, the company did not suggest a boe/d figure for the year, but WHI have and state that they remain comfortable with their 2022 full year production estimate of 21,077 boe/d.
If Q1 delivered 18095 and Q2 19502, then Q3&4 would need to be >23,300.
If the whole of July delivered 20000 and all of August 20500, then the final 4 months have to run at 24870 per day, and whilst possible, given today i3E said a material percentage of the associated production is expected to come onstream in late Q3 or Q4 2022, it seems a remote possibility.

G_G_G and Tony comment on Serenity spud in mid-September which suggests that Repsol Sinopec Resources have had more luck with this well than the previous where the well programme was foreshortened as it was found to be a dry hole and i3E will get Stena Don towards the end of the window, but they were never going to spud on day 1 of the contract start.
But there was also the reminder "Any well costs exceeding £15 million will be funded by the companies in proportion to their respective working interests."
The EOG presentation had an interesting line on costs:
30 day well (dry hole) budgeted cost $US 17.7 million (GBP £14.2 million).

If the current $/£ rate of 1.18 is used, $17.7M is £15M.
As a dry hole is not expected, it would seem that the costs could exceed the cap, especially with inflationary pressure.
i3e have never said how they will pay for the drill, or whether they have had to put the necessary into an escrow account,ie no longer free cash, but they have suggested that another farm in could happen prior to spud.
The 2022 Capex declared and subsequently increased up to $97 million, was titled 2022 Canadian Capital Programme, and then Enlarged Capital Budget, but still for "the expansion and acceleration of i3's key Canadian development opportunities."

Patiently waiting for real news...

Stena Don has been anchored at this location for several weeks where it is working for Repsol Sinopec Resources on the producing Blake field.
It is very close to the wellhead for 13/24a-B2Z which is being re-entered and for a sidetrack, -B2Y.
The well programme for -B2Z was foreshortened as it was found to be a dry hole with no commercially viable hydrocarbons.
The nearby i3E Liberator East drills similarly disappointed, leading to the relinquishment of their P1987 Licence.

The Serenity find that EOG have farmed into is in the P2358north licence. The 13/23c-10 well is around 7 miles further north than Stena Don's current position and the proposed appraisal drill, SA-02, that EOG is co-funding is a couple of miles to the west of Well SA-01 (13/23c-10).

Reference to the map on page 10 of the June presentation 'Meet the Team' shows all of these locations.
Co-ordinates for wells are available here: https://itportal.nstauthority.co.uk/edufox5live/fox/edu/WONS_WELLBORE_SEARCH_PUBLIC

Hope that clarifies the current situation: more patience needed.

Stena Don is anchored at this location which is very close to the wellhead for 13/24a-B2Z (compare ship data with data here https://itportal.nstauthority.co.uk/edufox5live/fox/edu/WONS_WELLBORE_SEARCH_PUBLIC ) which also shows that it is outside the Blake field but not in i3E's Licence. It is working on another sidetrack for Repsol Sinopec Resources, 13/24a-B2Y, as at the previous drill, 13/24a-B2Z, the well programme was foreshortened as it was found to be a dry hole with no commercially viable hydrocarbons.
HTH

uncertain, you seem to have been obsessed with getting the spellling correct and forgot to close out the sentence.
Allow me:
"... presentation is b*&&*^"x again."
HTH

ELSteve- here is a taster for you, from our partner released yesterday:
At Marten Hills, the final eight-leg multi-lateral well of the four (2.0 net) well winter drilling program was rig released in early April. Two of the four winter drilling program wells reached the end of their initial 30-day production periods, recording IP30 rates of 142 bbl/d and 139 bbl/d as compared to the Marten Hills type curve(1) IP30 of 120 bbl/d. The remaining two winter-program wells reached the end of their initial 30-day production periods during May, also performing slightly stronger than the Marten Hills type curve with average IP30 rates of 186 and 179 bbl/d. With the rig racked on location at Marten Hills over spring break up, dry field conditions permitted the spud of two additional horizontal multi-lateral wells in June prior to re-locating the rig to Figure Lake. The two new wells were drilled at the Marten Hills Area’s after payout working interest of 30%. The first well was rig released in mid-June, reached full recovery of its oil-based mud load fluid on July 6th and achieved an average IP30 rate of 188 bbl/d. The second adjacent well rig released in early July, reached full recovery of oil-based mud in late July and is performing positively, commensurate with the neighboring well.
HTH

uncertain, plenty of time yet today or tomorrow for the perfunctory voting RNS to drop - academic though that may be with the KO CP holdings.

But what a c0ck-up!
Fancy announcing the AGM before the FR would be available, and then not rescheduling it to meet the delay and having to organise a second. Anyone would think they were scared of the SP dropping in the event they had to do announce a change...
It's not just the drilling that's fubar here!

Anyone know?- How large is the drilling workforce?
Can they manage 24/7 operational drilling at more than one location?

jimo
joe

Paul, noted your post and your Liberator comments.
Wondering if you had read the Relinquishment Report for P1987 and how it stacks up with your view Pre drill and
their earlier view.

https://datanstauthority.blob.core.windows.net/external/relinqs/2021_06/P1987_13_23d_i3_RelReport_Mar2021.pdf

DM - I think you are overthinking it.
If your shares are held by a nominee broker, they will all be lumped together and your broker will be just one of the holders on their register.
Which would mean that there are many more shares than that per broker, esp if KK and DD share a broker...

Were there any gaps that need filling from when PMO was trading in the 15's??

Resolution 13 is only an extension of the same 10% rule that was voted in last year, but the volume has increased due to the number of shares now in issue, primarily from the option take-up.
What they want is Resolution 11, then they can award themselves some more options.
Move up the trough!

The three years has passed.

According to the Circular for the Conversion, she only held them 'beneficially'.

Notes:

The currently held Ordinary Shares noted in the table above held by the various members of the Oraziman Family Concert Party are held beneficially by the family member concerned. The underlying shareholdings are managed by Akku Investments, a Kazakh entity with Kuat Oraziman as the sole director and decision maker. 100,021,432 Conversion Shares will be issued to Akku Investments and 19,854,007 and 19,854,007 will be issued directly to Aibek Oraziman and Aidana Urazimanova respectively. Aibek Oraziman and Aidana Urazimanova are the sole beneficiaries of Akku Investments and own the Ordinary Shares of Akku Investments equally.

HTH
;-)

KK, no.
I'll look at the statement tomorrow (an assumption on my part: still not seen the AGM Circular on the website) and see where the spin is now!
I know the CAB is important for a divi, but imo the CAB number has been manufactured by selective borrowing, opportunistic purchases and timely debt repayments, and as others have said, it could now be increasing rapidly.
But it might not ;-)

Clarity and not doublespeak is needed. Sure, it's a risk business and statements are forward looking so caveat emptor, and dyor should not have to rely on Bico!
We have not heard about the decline rates in the wells, just sporadic flowrates. We know workovers are needed, but what is the trend for the horizontals?
I note particularly the insertion of the word capacity in recent docs.
4000bopd production capacity is not 4000bopd revenue!

The debacle with 3AB, still no renewal, no payment of dues, and no reclaim of 2/3 of the indemnities starts to look like a quick rinse through of RO's assets. How can the new partner be responsible for the next work, when licence terms are unknown? It's been written off the books, how long before it follows Beibars?

enjoy your pret.