Member Info for JoeSoap

Uncertain, don't forget that there are DRIPs also providing support here...

G_G_G, the results, or in their parlance, the update is anxiously awaited, and now overdue to their scheduled expectation.

"Q20: When do you expect to issue the Q4 update.

We expect to issue this in the first half of February."

Last year it came on the 24th, so why would it be earlier this year? Especially so in the continuing absence of a CFO, or named responsible interim. Is it all down to Majid now? Or, has the role of the Canadian President been expanded with the plc directorship from that when his brother was overworking as CFO?

Some may have noticed that, although the recent presentation confirmed Ryan Heath's Board position and title, it was some time before the website was similarly updated. However, he is still to appear as a Director at Companies House, even though Graham was updated to 'Resigned' in January and Majid changed address this month.

Who presides over this lax attention to details of information available to thepublic ? It took BB shareholders' emails to get the blurb updated for the investor meeting to a pertinent status - only for it to then be cancelled.

DYOR, DYOC.

Dartron, you have misunderstood the SCS RNS.
It states the reason as "An event changing the breakdown of voting rights".
This is due to their buy back of shares and the consequent reduced number of voting rights increasing the percentage holding of PMI to over the 5% threshold on Friday.
HTH

So the large trades noted yesterday have appeared after hours tonight, each a few seconds later and at a miniscule premium.
Who is shuffling these around??
30-Jan-23 10:06:29 5.99 484,040 Unknown* 5.80 6.00 28.99k O
30-Jan-23 09:20:26 5.722 410,648 Unknown* 5.80 6.00 23.50k O
30-Jan-23 12:56:43 5.868 2,100,000 Unknown* 5.80 6.00 123.23k O
30-Jan-23 09:12:18 5.85 400,000 Unknown* 5.80 6.00 23.40k O
30-Jan-23 10:03:38 5.872 1,500,000 Unknown* 5.80 6.00 88.08k O

:-))

Good to see that the DD has found Ryan beyond reproach for the fraternal deal.
As CEO of Toscana he may have had a holding and/or options which would have been converted into i3E shares at the time of the TO.
As President of i3E Canada, (has that role now become an Executive position in i3E plc or does he have a new title?) he will have certainly been awarded the 11p options at the time of the TO and then again at the time of the acquisition from Cenovus. Any subsequent dealing would not have had to be reported.

His current holding has to be declared now as an Executive.

There is no new award, and there have been no new incentives for any of the board since Cenovus although there is plenty of scope following their enmasse conversion when the SDP was 28p.

imo RH will now be at the final board meeting this year where next year's plan is agreed and then an RNS issued.

What a pity there will not be a CFO present.

imo, they have prepared the the way forward within the recent presentation:
2022e Dividend (5) £15,350,900
2023e Dividend (6) £20,395,712
and they could spin that percentage increase - if they did PR!

It got some overexcited at the time, because they couldn't do the maths and many LTH will remain nonplussed with just the 20% increase in their annual returns.

Tony, noted your opening post and was immediately taken by your very precise key data input with "production 24,731 boepd", and then your reply to Jonfon 'Extrapolated / Guestimated'.
As I understand it from previous RNS and now the presentation, the company have said "remains on track to deliver peak production above 24,000 boepd before year-end 2022."
On Slide 9 they show a peak in November, with decline >12% thereafter. The enlarged window with the 2022 wells reset to month-one on-stream shows >40% decline from the new wells. The production graph does show the benefit next year as they have stated, however, the peak month is not above 24k, so perhaps they are looking at a weekly or even daily rate of >24k.
("Subsequent to Q3, i3 has achieved record corporate production of over 23,000 boepd as new wells were brought on stream, cleaned-up and optimized. The Company remains on track to reach 24,000 boepd by year-end with contribution increases from five gross (3.93 net) Montney and Cardium wells, which are still being cleared up, two gross (2 net) Falher wells recently drilled, tied-in and commencing clean-up and seven gross (3.7 net) recently drilled wells in the Glauconite, Clearwater, and Belly River formations, all of which are expected to be completed and tied-in prior to year-end.")

Then reviewing that graph again: the production is clearly below the 18095boepd actually declared for Q1 [and the restated 18391boepd within Q3 update]. Why would that be? It is now fact not a projection; so is this yet another old (management) slide?
Do you think the clear, highly variable daily Clearwater production is from that operator? ;-)

So, your number is as good as anything they show, and that's not the way it should be. Although I hope you have run at a lower rate to stress test your assumptions, and also at higher as 2023 wells come in.
The sooner they get a replacement for Graham, the more credibility they may have.
But atm, the only Exec is Majid, and that is no way to run a quoted company. If a CFO does not turn up shortly, he will have no input on 2023 strategy/targets and will be reduced to the role of chief abacus operator.
jimo
joe
PS, don't forget the loan notes.

It will be interesting to see just how much this company is spending on the upkeep of their various Projects, when the Financials arrive. The previous raise was for improving West Firsby production, work prior to farm-out in Morocco and 'evaluating late-stage appraisal/development projects that would rebalance existing portfolio of production and exploration assets', later to be named as Serenity.
The £7m raise should still be on their books at the end of July, albeit in an escrow account. The completion date was in this financial year.
The hunger for updates is understandable.
The results of the Serenity drill have shown that it is not a stand-alone c200mmbl Project with a large areal extent, just a small pool of oil that maybe commercial in conjunction with a Tain tie-back, and probably requiring a further appraisal drill.
The Inishkea licence extension has been approved, DECC putting the ball back in EOG's court while they search for a partner that can meet the requirements recently laid out for Barryroe by DECC .
The Morocco licence was extended due to Covid, but the first phase time interval has now elapsed.
'At the end of the initial phase, Europa will have the option to commit to drilling an exploration well in the second phase or to relinquish the Licence.'
All UK production is available on NTSA; might need to work with volume in m3 rather than mb/d to get a meaningful b/d.
Tick Tock

A reduction in NOI was to be expected, as Tony has said.
But it is not just the lower commodity prices, the production is not where they expected or wanted it to be at Q2 update or now. They detail those commodity price falls and attribute it 'primarily' as the cause. Gas (@ c52% of volume) is 8.8% down; if all prices were down by that amount then why is the NOI now down by a further 14%?
The Q2 revision included inflationary costs of 3% in the reduction to c200M.
The current YE NOI is $172M, and that has to be considered over the full year, with the H1 NOI already banked during higher prices, which makes today's even lower projection very disappointing.
So, what of the production numbers.
Q3 boepd 20571 is up QonQ [YonY of course], but as
" i3 exited the first quarter of 2022 with a record weekly average production of approximately 20,312 boepd comprised of 61.1 million standard cubic feet of gas per day ("mmscfd"), 6,290 barrels per day ("bbl/d") of natural gas liquids ("NGLs"), 3,522 bbl/d of oil and 316 boepd of gross overriding royalty interest production. "
there has to be a lot riding on bringing these remaining wells onto production as winter approaches.
If they miss the 24k, they will be pilloried.

Tony, just wondering which of the facts I delivered you thought were wides.
As the bowler, I thought that each was on-target, and yet you replied quicker than Hawk-Eye could generate the replay!

'Our CFO replacement was internal s no excuses there either.'
The info in Graham's departure RNS was "The Company has commenced a search for a replacement CFO ...", which could easily take 3months or more if they come from outside, but in the meantime someone internal has to be responsible for doing the necessary work.
However, history suggests things could take longer:
'Linda Beal will become Interim Chairperson as i3 conducts a formal search to replace David.'
This was from Feb 7th 2019.
It was September 9th 2022 before she swapped seats with John, an i3E board member since December 2020...
and within 16 weeks of her taking up a NED role at HUR and just 3 weeks before Graham's decision.

That all is not running sweetly was evidenced by the Bybrook holdings RNS appearing on the sixth trading day after receipt, contrary to the requirements:
An issuer must, in relation to shares admitted to trading on a regulated market, on receipt of a notification as soon as possible and in any event by not later than the end of the trading day following receipt of the notification make public all of the information contained in the notification.

The use of old slides and then the debacle with the Investor's Evening do nothing to inspire the confidence necessary in the running of the company following the Serenity disaster.
jimo
joe

They have maintained their share holding and increased the size of their Contract for Difference, by almost 1% of the shares in issue.

Of more intrigue is wtf have i3E been doing sitting on the info for over one week instead of relaying to the market?

And thereby hangs a tale:
they don't even have licence P1987...

G_G_G, no.
I'm assuming that they will increase the number of payments, 10 becomes 12 is a 20% increase in what they have to payout.
This was the metric used in my original post as that is the measure of the cost to the company.
What you receive and the annual rate depends on whether you continue to hold and, of course, your buy-in price(s).
Remember some paid only 0.01p for theirs and still sold out.
And still have more on the books to come...

G_G_G Perhaps you missed the line in my post that gives a 20% rise yoy.

In the original 2022 dividend announcement made in December, the company committed to distibute an amount of money by way of dividends.
The amount was £11.827 million, expected in two payments.
In February they announced the initial March monthly payment of 0.105 pence/share.
In May they were pleased to announce that due to the ongoing exceptional performance of its production assets, positive results from the initial phase of its 2022 development drilling programme, and continuing commodity price strength and the resultant positive impact on our cash flow projections, the Company has decided to increase the minimum dividend to be paid in 2022 by 25% from £11.827mm to £14.784mm. The increase will be implemented by increasing the monthly dividend.
The June 2022 dividend totalling £1.6052 million resulted in a payment of 0.1425 pence/share.
This became £1.6996 million for July following the Exercise of Options at the end of May, too late for the June payment, and with the rate unchanged.
This resulted in the total payment rising from £14.784mm to £15.350mm for 2022 with an unchanged rate.
Next year there is already an innate expectzation that payments will be monthly, ie 12 payments rather than 10.
The total dividend payment would then rise to £20.3952mm.

Both of this years increases followed on from the 9th May financial assessment with projected NOI of $241M.
In the August 26th update, this was revised down to c.$200M.
Since then, the commodity prices have been weaker, and gas much weaher on occassion.

With the hedging that is in place, the spare cash from Serenity and the projected increase in production, they should be able to maintain the dividend.

Until we see their plan for next year, I do not expect to see a further increase announced but am always happy to take positive surprises. :)
jimo
joe

G_G_G your impatience with the management here has been long noted, and it seems you've now dropped the campaign for Minos High plus one.
fwiw, I agree that a buyback is not the solution to the lower SP. Take a look at the daily list of buybacks and find the company that has an appreciating SP in the current climate. OK, granted, the argument that they could have fell further otherwise.
An immediate divi increase would not see a return to the previous highs in the 30s, even with further production increases imminent. The daily drop exceeds the monthly returns. Who wants to have (taxable, potentially) income from their dwindling capital? The c.9p drop and the effect on the previously happy PI's peak portfolio balance is clear for all to see. Even though there is no way they could all have realised their often substantial gains, unless that much touted TO offer popped up.
The issue here, imo, is the uncertainty over what i3E is and wants to be.
The company has two parts, Canada and NS. The NS does not generate any income, so all funding comes from Canada which is the simplest explanation for its discount to Canadian peers.
We now know the outcome of the Serenity SA2 well, but not what it means to the SA1 find beyond the fact that their model was wrong, that the more conservative CPR from Tracs based on i3E data is an overestimate (but hopefully not of Hurricane proportions) and that further spend will need to be incurred, although some might say the budget for the well and ST was not used up so increases the FCF.
Would failure warrant a special divi in the BoDs eyes?
GH stepping down will not have helped, and a new CFO is needed. Beyond that, the Loan Notes repayment is coming up and it will be interesting to see whether they just repay, or plan to expand and extend the term or RBL or ...
Mr Dafforn was hugely influential in this company, but took some off the table at 27p. He took a significant holding in the EOG fund raise @1.8p, so did he believe in 13/23c or see just another cheap entry opportunity? His next move is also instrumental.

JF (and MJ) buying yesterday was hailed in much the same way as his earlier more expensive deal. (Management converted at 28p and paid tax on that gain.)

Until there is absolute clarity around what i3E plan to do, in the current climate it just may well be that peak SP has been seen.

jimo
joe

If Majid is speaking perhaps he can clarify the RNS statement.
"The 13/23c-12 Serenity appraisal well was drilled to a total vertical depth of 5,630 ft below sea level. The targeted Lower Cretaceous Captain sand, which contained hydrocarbons in the 13/23c-10 well discovered in October 2019, was not present at this location. Over 100 ft of other Captain sands in various sequences were found but were water wet. The well will now be plugged and abandoned."

Throughout the CPR the oil was found in the UPPER Captain sand, both at Liberator and Serenity.

"In the Liberator area, i3 classify the Captain sands to be part of the K50.1 unit, comparable with the reservoir sands in the Blake field. The K50.1 sand is further divided into an Upper and Lower Captain sand in Liberator East. It is the Upper Captain sand in Liberator that is hydrocarbon-bearing, i.e. proven."
and
"As mentioned, i3 Energy adopt an informal 3-fold subdivision of the K50 Captain sands into K50.1, K50.2, K50.3 based on regional mapping of discrete seismic packages combined with sand body positioning with respect to Top Rødby (Figure 2-5). They interpret the Blake-Liberator sands as older K50.1 deposits characterised by blocky high density turbidite packages, with the Blake flank area assigned to areally offset, but locally overlapping K50.2 sands/shales. The uppermost (youngest) sands within the Serenity-Tain-Magnolia wells area are assigned to the K50.3 unit. According to i3, the thin oil-bearing sand in Serenity discovery well is assigned to K50.3 (“Upper Captain”), whilst the underlying water-bearing sands are interpreted as K50.2."

So, was this a careless slip of the brush or a factually correct statement?

If the lower sands were not present and all the other sands were wet, then ergo the upper was wet.
Which then means that the volume of oil in the CPR is less by an unknown amount.

If it was the 'upper' sands that were not present, then not only did they fail on the '40 feet' necessary for 200MMstb but the areal extent used for the low case is also incorrect, and hence the assigned 16MMstb is overestimated.

EOG had said "the key uncertainty of the appraisal well is reservoir presence, quality and thickness" ...

Nepotism rules...

"The Block 8 Contract Area is owned by a member of the Oraziman family, which holds approximately 48.4% of the shares in Caspian Sunrise, and as such it would constitute a related party transaction."

Altynbek Bolatzhan
General Director - EPC Munai

Altynbek Boltazhan is the adult nephew of Kuat Oraziman. He works in the oil & gas industry in
Kazakhstan but not presently for Caspian Sunrise. He holds approximately 1.3% of the Company's
voting rights.

So just how prescient was the use of the word 'presently' in the Debt conversion RNS of 15 February 2022?

Remember the "Caspian Explorer Vendors"?
Mr Altynbek Bolatzhan, Mr Aibek Oraziman, Mr Alibek Mugaila, Mr Berik Bemuratov and Mr Kang Junyoung.

And was listed as the President of 3A-Best Group.

G_G_G , it all depends where you look and whose opinion you respect:
https://longforecast.com/oil-price-today-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021-brent-wti
aka confirmation bias
;-)