Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
DaisyDo (and KK), your opinion is noted and a healthy dose of scepticism is justified on past performance but a dividend is the only way the CP and WCP can get any income from their long held positions, short of selling down their holdings. We do not have all of the info, despite the comprehensive company history detailed in the GM Circular. We do not know why Al Marris hold, or what conditions they may have laid down.
We do know that KS off-loaded some before transferring his holding, and the 4.2p Al Marri deal suggests he did not make anything on his investment. Previously, in KS's hands they were considered to be in the WCP, so the overall WCP holding is now much less, and the KO conversion does not restore it.
Do you think it is odd that the 'panel' wanted the waiver put to the independent shareholders to approve? What about his pay sacrifice award? Or the Boat? Or rigs? The panel simply said 'OK', carry on.
Re 'rattled' comment, in the 'No' case that would suggest that KO drops the share conversion and demands immediate cash repayment of the loan. With the motion as put, wouldn't the No vote have rejected the waiver to buy out the share holders that the panel had passed?[ie a takeover is required.] So, if KO doesn't want it all (or can't fund it with/without a WCP) he has to then backtrack to the status quo. (Where they have said no divi with an outstanding repayment-on-demand loan.) The Al Marri position is unexplained; the GM results show they withheld their votes.
If the eagerly anticipated update delivers on just some of the PI-hoped for results, then there will likely never be a more opportune time to go down the dividend route. It will be interesting to see what yield they propose and how the SP reacts to it and the drilling updates.
Much was made in the circular of the "Relationship Agreement"(which by itself may have prevented a KO takeover), with joining dates etc., and maintaining AIM-status, and yet the circular had this in bold:-
"In the event that the Waiver Resolution is approved at the General Meeting, neither the
Oraziman Family Concert Party, the Wider Concert Party nor any of their respective
connected persons or other persons acting in concert with it will be restricted from making
an offer for the Company"
The RA expires when KO has less than 20%.
Interesting times for the company...
and shareholders!
jimo
joe
From the Strategic, Financial, Operational Update RNS on 6 August 2021
"Dividends
It has been a long-held objective of the group to be a regular payer of dividends. Accordingly, at the General Meeting referred to above, shareholders will also be asked to approve a capital reduction required to allow the payment of dividends."
For whatever reason, it was not included in the Debt clearance GM.
The recent post GM Debt Conversion and Operational Updates RNS on 9th March Clive said
"With oil prices at record levels and increasing production volumes we look forward to a period of cash generation. ->Accordingly, we intend to put resolutions to the Annual General Meeting planned for June 2022, which if passed and if approved by the UK Court, would allow the commencement of dividends <- with an initial dividend expected to be declared in July 2022 and with the main dividend for the year expected to be declared in December 2022." {Emphasis added]
A capital reduction (for a plc) has to be approved by the court. Many companies opt for this route to get back to a positive balance sheet to enable dividend payment. It usually takes about two months, but then, Clive doesn't mention when PAYMENT is planned. and isn't it usual to announce the main dividend with the results for the year?
But, as LTH (and followers) know, this isn't any ordinary company, this is Caspian Sunrise.
The trades you refer to from yesterday are all double entered today: once as a deletion and once as a delayed trade.
Note the minus sign and then hover your cursor over the 'i' on the trades page on this site.
If you use Advfn, their data scraping programme does not read the minus sign...
HTH
Interesting that you post that Tony, as I looked at Ninepoint yesterday (because of the chart on twitter) and saw that Eric was their star performer at 31Jan over 1, 3 and 6 months and YTD, but not MTD where several others are ahead of him. Which is not the case here for i3e as your data shows rising very strongly this month.
https://www.ninepoint.com/prices-performance/?t=shortTermPerformance#shortTermPerformance
wrt your question, 16/20%, have you considered that they are both correct?
As a Finance man, it is probable that Graham used Bankers rounding and Majid looked to the plus side and quoted to just 1 significant figure. So, 16.5 can be both 16 or 20.
Maths affords a lot of opportunities...
Perhaps of more intrigue is why have the aggregate volumes for the previous quarters been modified so much? And with it, of course, the percentage of oil. ;-)
Tony summed it up - 'buy the rumour sell the news' certainly seems to be the case here.
OK, it's a reactionary day for stocks in general today with plenty presenting 'recovery' opportunities, but the early euphoria here has certainly eveporated this side of the pond: we await the Canadian response.
imo, the delay has been until they could show some positivity in the headline production, there is no other triggering event in the 'news'.
In the October update they said "production averaged approximately 18,960 boepd, for the seven-day period ending 16 October 2021".
Today, "production averaged approximately 19,055 boepd, for the seven-day period ending 12 February 2022", which is "With improved winter conditions and the positive impact of Q4's non-operated drilling"; Q4 averaged 18,229 boepd.
Allowing for low decline and the well closures and sells, it's not stunning, and they will need good results from the coming wells to hit their 20,000 by July.
But, perhaps more disappointing was the lack of any forward vision for the excess cash bering generated even with the dividend securing hedges.
Compare and contrast the PTAL RNS earlier this week. (Production, debt management, Market cap, divi and protection racket funding.) https://investegate.co.uk/petrotal-corp.--ptal-/rns/2022-capital-budget-of-us--120-million/202202220700093992C/
jimo
joe
So, after gifting all his shares to his kids, they elect to put them together into Akku Investments, and then we find out today that
"The underlying shareholdings are managed by Akku Investments, a Kazakh entity with Kuat Oraziman as the sole director and decision maker."
which would not only give him sole control of the O-family concert, but the majority holding in the wider concert also.
The CEO's plan is slowly coming together.
When will the salaries be restored??
And so the discussion continues....
However, none have looked at the other side of the coin to see what is in it for i3E.
The answer is, as Tony showed in his workings but missed in his conclusion:
The company gets to keep the cash for longer than it would under the two payment system, the corollary being that the investor loses out on a cash/time basis.
It is exacerbated by the 10 payments cf to 12 as Nov and Dec payments [20% cf. 16.67%] will be later arriving in the PI's hands than a single payment.
It does mean more work for the Nomad!
It does smooth the outgoings from i3E.
It will reduce peak demand from those re-investing divis and if the SP continues to appreciate as many expect, they will ultimately be more expensive to acquire at each 1/10 divi event [ie reduced yield]
It also means that a variable divi can be managed easier, which the investor can look forward to if only to restore the cash/time shortfall
But where is that update...and the opportunist trader's spike...or will it arrive on the 17th/18th?
In March you will get 1/10 of the 1.05p.
You will not get the full 1.05p until December.
However, as they will announce it monthly they retain the right to make it variable and could increase the monthly payments so that they deliver more cash to the Investor, as alluded to in the December RNS.
Intrigued that they have 2 RNSs re Divi and yet no production update.
G_G_G, last year they updated on 23 February, for the period November to January.
They said " The Company intends to provide regular quarterly updates starting with a summary of Q1 to be released in the second half of April 2021."
It arrived on the 5th May.
DYOC ;-)
PS Is the update not due in any event since Q4 and H2 share the same end date?
PPS Reporting would be H1 Interim & H2 Final, not quarterly as in Canada.
The interpretation of the RNS on here and Advfn is wide of the mark.
The Reason is given on the form: "An acquisition or disposal of financial instruments "
[2,175,000 increased to 9,875,000.]
They have not reduced their total Direct holding since the increase in their October declaration.
The percentage has reduced because Linda and another then took up some options thereby increasing the number of shares in issue.
They have shuffled the relative holdings of the three funds.
HTH
"They just need to get the bl@@dy thing sorted."
How long have PIs been saying that about Serenity?
.
If we knew why Tain was delayed it might help, especially if the fields are joined.
More so if RepsolSinopec and/or RockRose (aka Viaro Energy) are a partner, but then, why won't they show the money?
Do they want the info from the Serenity appraisal before committing to their FID for Tain, with Serenity a co-user of a "sufficiently green" FPSO, perhaps in a joint submission, in the successful drill case.
So is the shy partner a different company? Or are they just waiting until there is some clarification on getting a production approval from OGA (beyond the NS Transition Deal) and without incurring legal challenges, before moving to FID?
wrt the '6 months', that could be about right, if the shy partner can show the money by next month, or if the draft contract has an imminent time limit and A N Other has the ROFR. It may well be less as they have the Dolphin contract to expedite a rig, depending on their bookings, of course, and would then just have to get approvals through OGA..
The nomination of an Operator suggests there is some activity again (aka expense), iirc the NS team had been stood down/furloughed to minimise spend.
Maybe it's worth reviewing the previous comments from the BoD:
AR2020
In the UK, we will progress our appraisal and development plans at Serenity and Liberator as and when capital becomes available from potential partners.
and
H1 2021 Report (Sept 27th)
Terms have been agreed in principle with farm-in partners for the Serenity field appraisal drilling programme. We await confirmation of funding commitments from those potential farm-in partners before finalising and executing documentation.
And
The Company’s focus for the remainder of 2021 will be on 5 key areas:
1...
2 The farmout of its UK licences to conduct further appraisal drilling at Serenity and/or Liberator;
3..
and
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/352366/i3-energy-serenity-appraisal/
So are we to expect two drilling campaigns or potentially an extended campaign, with any subsequent wells conditional on the first result?
Meanwhile, we do have those Canadian upates to look forward to.
Tony, as requested,
The 8th Dec post was to share info on the Martens Hill wells, info taken from the Q3 Sept Rubellite MD&A:
Operations update
As at November 9, 2021, Rubellite currently has seventeen (16.0 net) multi-lateral wells drilled, including the six (6.0 net) original wells drilled by Perpetual at Ukalta and the one (1.0 net) producing 2.5 leg multi-lateral well at Figure Lake. New wells that have been drilled, completed and commenced production since Rubellite’s inception in July 2021 include two (1.0 net) wells at Marten Hills which were rig released in mid- July and four (4.0 net) producing wells at Figure Lake. The first four (4.0 net) wells of the planned eight well drilling program at Ukalta....
At Marten Hills, sales production commenced in late August after fully recovering load oil from drilling operations. Rubellite is pleased to report that the two, eight leg multi-lateral wells continue to have average performance consistent with Rubellite’s Marten Hills type curve, with an average IP30 production level of approximately 120 bbl/d of 22° API crude oil for the two wells. An additional 4 (2.0 net) follow up wells are scheduled to be drilled in the first quarter of 2022.
i3e reiterated the option on partaking in the additional wells in their recent report.
Yesterday, the RNS detailed 17 wells would be funded, 15 wells were operated by i3e, leaving two wells operated by A N Other. So the conclusion to be drawn is that either (A) only two wells with Rubellite at Martens Hill, or (B) no wells at MH, two wells elsewhere.
BUT it was not a definitive listing, as "The budget also includes an amount of capital that has been allocated to fund highly economic, non-operated drilling opportunities as they arise," - in a non-specific way. Which should explain why 'hesitation' was used in my post.
wrt the remainder of the post, it was simply to say that these wells were not a rip-roaring success when judged by the expected volumes from the new wells, as worked out by you. But with the error to the downside as flagged by nomadicinvestor and further endorsed by my post, these wells would be even more inferior.
As to your final comment, these boards can usefully share information which may then kick off another piece of research, it's not about being topdog or putting others down, just helping and correcting inaccurate posts, by sharing and supplying extra info to help all, even the original poster. Every reader is, of course, free to DYOR and DYOC.
And it is not just about what Majid and Graham say publicly and then reiterate privately. That can easily lead to PI confirmation bias.
jimo
joe
Tony, it's a follow-on from my 08 Dec 2021 21:49 post.
Additionally, even using your 300 boepd from much earlier, Today 04:47, the return from these Rubellite owned wells was poor, and they can hopefully get better returns for the outlay from their high grading exercise.
HTH
Yes nomadicinvestor, tony will need to readjust his input parameters, however, it goes further because 2 wells are non-producers. But it is not clear whether these are 100% i3e or shared ownership. And what is with 88% i3-operated: is it not binary? The fact that only two are operated by others suggests that there could be hesitation with the 4 Rubelite wells.
Once again we can see that they can look forward to early vesting of the most recent tranche of options, which dependency will be satisfied next?
jimo
joe
G_G_G, thanks for your very detailed explanation of your trades.
Still very impressed (aka jealous!) with the discount you (or your broker) obtained, have to say that iirc the last limit buy that I placed was executed with the SP just 1/10,000 of a penny below the limit. [ one ten thousandth!] ; thinking I might need to change my broker...
lol
G_G_G. Surprised also today by the spread this morning being well over 10%; normally defines an illiquid stock not one on Sets. Perhaps explained by the 250k trade that appeared later which exceeded the traded volume earlier in the day, suggesting it was placed yesterday.
Also surprised that you were able to get your second trade at such a discount to the first and the earlier offer price. Can I be cheeky and ask how you managed that, was it a broker instruction,, a spot market trade, a Limit order or a Fill/Kill? I'm thinking that they could be bidding for cheaper shares tomorrow to cover it, – bwdik?
I tend to agree with the rest of your post, but you have to wonder what sort of debt and/or deal they are planning with 3 brokers and an advisor when they are only a £125M MC company. I also think the farmout may slip into next year in the current environment.
jimo
joe
Tony, Did you overlook the 22° API heavy oil from the co-owned Marten Hills wells drilled by way of a farm-in earlier this year for $1.5M? Perhaps you considered it insignificant at just 120bbl/d in a total volume approaching 20kboepd: it is.
However, worth remembering that they have an option for further wells and Rubellite have budgeted for four in Q1 2022 which would imply Capex spend for i3E of $2M. Perhaps they'll deign to confirm it one day soon...
Eric is very focused on his Funds goals and his belief that there will need to be a correction in the sector due to the current excess cash being generated, and his clients will massively benefit from Dividends and/or huge SP growth due to share buybacks. To that end, almost any company would seem be a 'good investment', but he goes further and refines his selection by having no appetite for gas producers as Canada has been mild and wet with less demand, potential SP gains of c50% are below his funds targetted returns and Parex Resources was a no-no. Yet, he was recently buying more of his top holdings, just as the market took a downward move as the price of oil retreated, because of his belief in his calculated upside and despite his current profit from the earlier cheaper buys he still believes he can get much more.
Continuing to listen and up pops Brian, with his top picks which included Parex...
Two experts and you have an argument?
DYOR and DYOC - it's your money not your clients after all
jimo
joe
Tony, agree with your 21.04 post - Graham is wise enough not to reveal further sensitive info to just one person, irrespective of whether it gets posted or not. For sure he will seek to pacify the nervous investor, he doesn't want to add to the sells!
wrt the top holders not selling, if his only proof is that i3E have not received any TR 1 forms, you may recall it took the warrant conversion to flush out Premier Miton's selling down; but as the thresholds are at 12M intervals and the volume has been poor most days (did the Doc sell out in London last week because there was no volume in Canada to suggest a large holder exiting?).
The last RNS identified the wonderful services offered by Carlingford that had been used previously, but not declared, as well as welcoming Stifel to the dining table...
I expect a substantial debt raising, to pay off the loan notes and provide capital for further acquisition(s) together with the excess fcf. Majid made much of the M&A and A&D in the last video, and the spare bit of Gain was flipped. So more acquisitions and maybe some rationalisation of assets with Disposition of non-core elements, as presented in their earlier circular arrow pictograms.
jimo
joe