If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
No-one asked you to buy my theory, I'm not Eric!
It was simply my suggestion as to why they have purposely delayed releasing the results, results which could easily carry a qualification of the going concern status by the auditor, that they would then be able to clarify.
Do you have an alternative view to offer?
re Secondly, well that makes no sense, as I do not think that they are sitting on that much cash. They have to pay up or default at the end of May, not December.
re 3) you have to hope so...
As ever, time will tell.
Question is why are the results later than last year. (It's also holding up the full NI 51-101 Reserves disclosure for the Canadian market, but they must be known internally and I don't buy the idea that the new cfo wants to review them first. He is not an Exec and will not be signing them off.)
So, looking for some other cause and imo this is the Loan Notes. They have signalled a YE Net Debt of US$3--8.8M, which suggests that they need an extension period or a new, perhaps alternative, arrangement. We are not privy to all the covenants that exist, but we know they were originally taken out against the NS properties, and amended to allow the Canadian purchase, including the Warrants at par. The grant of more Warrants for an extension beyond end of May would not be a total surprise. The surprise, perhaps, was that all the past dividends were eschewed on the 9+M rump, for less than the cost of one months income.
It is not too late for a TR 1 yet as they only hit the market on Friday, but if adding 9M shares does not require a TR 1, it suggests some particularly judicious trading ahead of the take up.
I also expect disclosure of the "Additional 15 gross sections", and still withheld for competitive reasons in the April presentation(s), and then how they plan to monetise all these assets.
Not forgetting the early vesting terms for the cfo and the current tax-paying status, of course.
jimo
joe
simon, peak is in September according to the January presentation...
iirc, the NS employees options had a 2500boepd acquisition triggering clause, but that was nearly 3 years ago.
Tony, you need to rework point 4, RE: Listing.
Smallcaps is not 'another listing', but a migration from AIM to the Main Market.
It requires more stringent governance, and will cost more money to do and to upkeep.
Both factors seem to be on shortage.
HTH
"I think your right Tiptop - except its tracking on lower FCF / CF multiples than peers and lower quality small cap oilers. So I3e were to do nothing else but trade in line with comparable Companies - the SP should be higher. So what is the missing ingredient - what are they missing ?"
Maybe they are not missing ingredients but have extra ingredients.
The NS arm has to be funded by Canada.
The London market listing has to be funded by Canada.
Several have suggested binning these.
When the commodity price reduces, these extra fixed costs become more significant leading to a reduced overall profit.
Perhaps WHI were signalling this in their unscheduled update, and as a portent of 2022FY results.
WRT missing though, probably confidence.
How about a CFO? The last one left due to work issues taking priority over his health; ironically we don't need one to oversee the 2022FY and 2023 Capex.
How about laxity in checking RNSs? Last two had to be reissued.
How about keeping Companies House updated wrt Directors?
What is missing for the employees not to take up the vested Options?
Why are there still 9M 0.01p Warrants to take up before they expire in May?
What is their plan with Debt? Loan notes due in May but projected as "Net Debt (8) USD 8.8 million - 3.0 million" at end of 2023? Note 'NET'.
How is your list doing??
They had three "company makers" in their early presentations. In the NS Liberator was dropped as non commercial. Serenity now "has" a smaller amount than Liberator but a plan is being developed.
How attractive are the two Canadian assets or is their some PR contagion?
HTH
I am amused that yet again the algo is having its own fun at 16:29:58 with its descending volume trades, each subsequent trade being 10% of the previous.
:-))
Smarty says "Still can’t get away from the the 3000nopd+ statement for BNG. You wouldn’t state that surely unless you were very confident of producing from this interval (s) but this is Caspian !"
imo it was not about the confidence of production, but a statement of instantaneous fact.
A statement that exposes the fact that not only are the shallows no longer producing at previously guided 2400bopd, but that the Q1 work plan for 141 and 142 may be continuing but has yet to restore the previous 4000bopd, or maybe the work has concluded and failed to restore the previous 4000bopd.
The work at A5 was to start after 802 finished, originally expected at the end of January, but most likely still on hold.
Plus ca change.
jimo
joe
The monthly payment route was the only way to get a payment in the 2022 FY for KO to compensate for the interest reduction. jimo
And,
Can production continue whilst this is ongoing?
"Work continues with Baker Hughes to stabilise the well. Once the well is completed it will be perforated with the prospect of potentially higher flow rates." Asking for a friend ;-)
G_G_G this was in the Dec22nd '2023 Capital Budget'RNS:-
Next Twelve-Month Net Operating Income Sensitivity (10)
Next twelve months' sensitivity. ..Estimated change to net operating income
Change in WTI USD 1.00/bbl. ..USD 2.48 million
Change in AECO CAD 0.10/GJ. ..USD 2.49 million
Change in CDN/US exchange rate CAD 0.01. ..USD 2.51 million
As the 2022 Capex came in underbudget, and the i3E NS drill was cheaper than they had budgetted for as it didn't take as long as scheduled and there was no sidetrack, so smaller borrowings from parent plc, both of these should be positive for the 2022FY balance sheet.
But then there was the curved ball, "The [2023] drilling programme was accelerated and commenced in December 2022 with 3 gross operated (1.77 net) 1.5 mile horizontal Cardium oil wells and one gross (0.22 net) non-operated Dunvegan oil well drilled in Wapiti / Elmworth, a 100% working interest, 1.5 mile, Cardium oil well in Carnwood (Central Alberta), and 3 gross (2.5 net) Clearwater wells being drilled in Dawson and Marten Creek - the Company's two largest contiguous Clearwater land positions. These wells are either being flowed back for clean-up or being tied-in to production facilities to commence clean-up.", which must have some drawdown in 2022FY, even if the bigger bills are pushed into 2023FY.
It should also mean more production in Q1/H1 than mere PIs expected but didn't i3E already know this work was starting when setting the 2023 Budget and preparing the Jan2023 Presentation, and anticipated this in their figures?
It is 8 for of the 23 planned 2023 wells. Might there be more to come?
wrt Debt, maybe they will...
2023 guidance and assumptions:-
.
Net Debt (8) USD 8.8 million - 3.0 million
jimo
joe
TT lol.
This evening we have :
24-Feb-23...13:54:57...7.82...500,000...Unknown*...7.80...7.90...39.10k O
Whereas on Friday at that time we had:
24-Feb-23...13:54:24...7.82...-50,000...Unknown...7.70...8.00...-3,910 O
24-Feb-23...13:54:24...7.82... 50,000...Sell*.____..7.70...8.00...3,910 O
So, the declared trade entered incorrectly was rightly corrected but the actual trade, rather than the MM/Broker c()ckup, was then held over.
Perhaps that trade was the sell to cover this deal, also appearing tonight
24-Feb-23...11:47:45...8.00...485,000...Unknown*...7.80...7.90...38.80k O
Who knows the secret of the black magic box?
bluemango, try opening Page 2 and then change the '2' in your browser address bar to something much bigger and see where that takes you.
If you have 25 posts per page as your setting, I'd try '1000' as a starting point.
HTH.
And that shows how important selection and timing is ...
60% of that 100% is needed to get back to 'what you could have won'.
"Sell half on a double"?
G_G_G, the results, or in their parlance, the update is anxiously awaited, and now overdue to their scheduled expectation.
"Q20: When do you expect to issue the Q4 update.
We expect to issue this in the first half of February."
Last year it came on the 24th, so why would it be earlier this year? Especially so in the continuing absence of a CFO, or named responsible interim. Is it all down to Majid now? Or, has the role of the Canadian President been expanded with the plc directorship from that when his brother was overworking as CFO?
Some may have noticed that, although the recent presentation confirmed Ryan Heath's Board position and title, it was some time before the website was similarly updated. However, he is still to appear as a Director at Companies House, even though Graham was updated to 'Resigned' in January and Majid changed address this month.
Who presides over this lax attention to details of information available to thepublic ? It took BB shareholders' emails to get the blurb updated for the investor meeting to a pertinent status - only for it to then be cancelled.
DYOR, DYOC.
Dartron, you have misunderstood the SCS RNS.
It states the reason as "An event changing the breakdown of voting rights".
This is due to their buy back of shares and the consequent reduced number of voting rights increasing the percentage holding of PMI to over the 5% threshold on Friday.
HTH
So the large trades noted yesterday have appeared after hours tonight, each a few seconds later and at a miniscule premium.
Who is shuffling these around??
30-Jan-23 10:06:29 5.99 484,040 Unknown* 5.80 6.00 28.99k O
30-Jan-23 09:20:26 5.722 410,648 Unknown* 5.80 6.00 23.50k O
30-Jan-23 12:56:43 5.868 2,100,000 Unknown* 5.80 6.00 123.23k O
30-Jan-23 09:12:18 5.85 400,000 Unknown* 5.80 6.00 23.40k O
30-Jan-23 10:03:38 5.872 1,500,000 Unknown* 5.80 6.00 88.08k O
:-))
Good to see that the DD has found Ryan beyond reproach for the fraternal deal.
As CEO of Toscana he may have had a holding and/or options which would have been converted into i3E shares at the time of the TO.
As President of i3E Canada, (has that role now become an Executive position in i3E plc or does he have a new title?) he will have certainly been awarded the 11p options at the time of the TO and then again at the time of the acquisition from Cenovus. Any subsequent dealing would not have had to be reported.
His current holding has to be declared now as an Executive.
There is no new award, and there have been no new incentives for any of the board since Cenovus although there is plenty of scope following their enmasse conversion when the SDP was 28p.
imo RH will now be at the final board meeting this year where next year's plan is agreed and then an RNS issued.
What a pity there will not be a CFO present.
imo, they have prepared the the way forward within the recent presentation:
2022e Dividend (5) £15,350,900
2023e Dividend (6) £20,395,712
and they could spin that percentage increase - if they did PR!
It got some overexcited at the time, because they couldn't do the maths and many LTH will remain nonplussed with just the 20% increase in their annual returns.
Tony, noted your opening post and was immediately taken by your very precise key data input with "production 24,731 boepd", and then your reply to Jonfon 'Extrapolated / Guestimated'.
As I understand it from previous RNS and now the presentation, the company have said "remains on track to deliver peak production above 24,000 boepd before year-end 2022."
On Slide 9 they show a peak in November, with decline >12% thereafter. The enlarged window with the 2022 wells reset to month-one on-stream shows >40% decline from the new wells. The production graph does show the benefit next year as they have stated, however, the peak month is not above 24k, so perhaps they are looking at a weekly or even daily rate of >24k.
("Subsequent to Q3, i3 has achieved record corporate production of over 23,000 boepd as new wells were brought on stream, cleaned-up and optimized. The Company remains on track to reach 24,000 boepd by year-end with contribution increases from five gross (3.93 net) Montney and Cardium wells, which are still being cleared up, two gross (2 net) Falher wells recently drilled, tied-in and commencing clean-up and seven gross (3.7 net) recently drilled wells in the Glauconite, Clearwater, and Belly River formations, all of which are expected to be completed and tied-in prior to year-end.")
Then reviewing that graph again: the production is clearly below the 18095boepd actually declared for Q1 [and the restated 18391boepd within Q3 update]. Why would that be? It is now fact not a projection; so is this yet another old (management) slide?
Do you think the clear, highly variable daily Clearwater production is from that operator? ;-)
So, your number is as good as anything they show, and that's not the way it should be. Although I hope you have run at a lower rate to stress test your assumptions, and also at higher as 2023 wells come in.
The sooner they get a replacement for Graham, the more credibility they may have.
But atm, the only Exec is Majid, and that is no way to run a quoted company. If a CFO does not turn up shortly, he will have no input on 2023 strategy/targets and will be reduced to the role of chief abacus operator.
jimo
joe
PS, don't forget the loan notes.
It will be interesting to see just how much this company is spending on the upkeep of their various Projects, when the Financials arrive. The previous raise was for improving West Firsby production, work prior to farm-out in Morocco and 'evaluating late-stage appraisal/development projects that would rebalance existing portfolio of production and exploration assets', later to be named as Serenity.
The £7m raise should still be on their books at the end of July, albeit in an escrow account. The completion date was in this financial year.
The hunger for updates is understandable.
The results of the Serenity drill have shown that it is not a stand-alone c200mmbl Project with a large areal extent, just a small pool of oil that maybe commercial in conjunction with a Tain tie-back, and probably requiring a further appraisal drill.
The Inishkea licence extension has been approved, DECC putting the ball back in EOG's court while they search for a partner that can meet the requirements recently laid out for Barryroe by DECC .
The Morocco licence was extended due to Covid, but the first phase time interval has now elapsed.
'At the end of the initial phase, Europa will have the option to commit to drilling an exploration well in the second phase or to relinquish the Licence.'
All UK production is available on NTSA; might need to work with volume in m3 rather than mb/d to get a meaningful b/d.
Tick Tock