Member Info for JoeSoap

Dm good question and same thoughts here. So joining dots or 9issing in the wind??

Why have they thrown in the towel at 3AB after all the promise it had in Jan 2018?

Who holds Dunga now?

Did you notice the change of tone at 802 in the AR? 2023:we are now looking for a partner & 2024:We would wish to undertake a joint venture with a leading technical partner before continuing work. So, no partner no progress. What does that mean for the future of Yelemes in the two years?

Hello KMG?

jimo joe

Dm it is way more complicated than the janet and john explanation given in the AR and also on the website. Neither of these mention the 'Contract Area', which seems to be the initial award block that is then explored to find the structures and then the structures take on a life of their own within the Contract Area. They have held Appraisal licences for a long time, and it was renewed (2 Sept 24 RNS) but unable to be used (!) as they had applied for the Production licences.

The deep structures are not yet fully appraised and no oil well has been established to be commercial, or even producing. Airshagyl has a 25 year Production Licence for an initial three year period, with further drilling allowed to increase the reserves. i.e. further drills are needed before Kaz support the GC CPR.

Today, at Yelemes the authorities have now extended the previous estimation licence for a further two years, i.e. NOT what they applied for but back to what they said they would apply for before they changed their mind(!) and the last year was wasted at Yelemes but activities were not affordable either. Hmmm. [assuming 'estimation' is an 'appraisal' translation]

Adrianz's normally on the ball, but I need to read his 'exploration' as 'appraisal' to agree with him and then the further work needed is the work schedule for the privilege of getting the appraisal licence.

One other item, not yet commented on, is the "The BNG Contract Area contains other potential shallow structures, which the Group may seek to develop in the future." imo this could be the oil at 803. It is above the salt and not in the identified 'deep structure' and may need further above salt wells to establish the structure. Two years is not long in Casp & Kaz timescales...

jimo joe

Somm, my search started with the info that they had to create a "NewCo", to be established in the Astana International financial Centre. https://aifc.kz/# . Hover over Business and go to Public Register. Enter Absolute and view Roles to see the transfer dates 10th not 20th I had suggested. TALGAT KUZBAKOV name was used, not a directors and originally the Shareholders were "BNG Ltd" ("BNG Ltd")Limited Liability Partnership.

Armed with the BIN you can then use https://elicense.kz , part of the Open Government policy, to Search Permits. They gave you CS's in the Circular. Have fun!

P.S. How do you think they are getting on with the November Sidetrack at B8 P1. No me neither.

Somm, thank you for posting your thoughts on the Licence situation.

As you know from my 24thNov post, it does not accord with mine.

Quite why Casp make the reading of RNSs so hard only CC can say. The use of 'entity' is unnecessary; in the Sale Circular they had to create a '“NewCo” -- a Group entity to be established in the Astana International financial Centre', which they did and for the future benefit of Absolute Resources christened it Absolute Oil LLP. The two ME Flaring permits held by BNG for the two fields were cancelled and transferred to Absolute Oil on 1st April, thus severing the BNG ownership, while still maintaining Group ownership. Absolute Resources got KAA clearance on 17 February, but it is not for CASP to report on AR progress only their own. When AR make payments, it is because they are confident of their progress, and when they are getting debt funding, those providers will need to be satisfied that the ducks are lined up before releasing any cash. AO changed hands on the 20 July aiui, the 23rd July RNS updating your highlighted 16th June RNS position. ME permits were granted for this year and next on the 20th and 19th Aug respectively to AO, and Mangistau Region permits subsequently. 27th Aug RNS said ‘completed’. The parent AR must see a $ or two in the shallows for themselves after the loan payments.

wrt WS and your recent post to Smarty "I don't think we'll see the NY licence signed off this year, but there's a good chance the KAA Ministry will sign off on Block 8 before Xmas and WS ownership formally transferred over to CASP." The WS or rather the holding company CS Energy transfer is done and dusted. Details were in the 21st Feb RNS "We are pleased today to announce that the consent required under the Kazakh Anti-Monopoly legislation has now also been received. This was the final substantive Kazakh approval required and allows work to commence on the West Shalva Contract Area." and completion with the pay-off 15th April RNS. Your reading of the 31 Oct RNS is not correct. "Inevitably with the sale of the MJF and South Yelemes structures oil trading activities in the current year have been affected but are expected to continue to contribute significantly to future group revenues as production volumes build from the BNG deep structures, West Shalva and Block 8, once owned." 'Once owned' only applies to Block 8, coming after the 'and' and with its separating comma. To include WS would also mean BNG deep has to be included which is nonsense and 'once owned' would not need the comma IF that were the case for all three. However, as the whole sentence is 'forward looking' and if all three were awaiting completion, then 'once owned' would be superfluous.

wrt B8 transfer and Akk and Yelemes deep, we await an update.

That's my take, fwiw. joe

Did somm hit the nail on the head? [21 Nov 2025 11:19]

If there is still a sign-off needed from KAZ EM before the 2024 accounts can be audited and released and that does not happen this year, then CASP:L is de-listed from AIM. Casp have never advised that this could happen: they have said 'Completed'. The terms in the Sept 3 2024 RNS "Completion will be conditional on, ...Absolute Resources having obtained relevant antimonopoly and governmental consents in Kazakhstan .." AR have bought Absolute Oil by debt-financing. All production is with AO, not BNG.

Prior to completion, refunds may have been due (RNS 03 Sept 2024), so the first $14M probably was in escrow/ring-fenced for H1, but even with completion before H1 notional publication date the delay is simply due to the fact H1-25 cannot precede the AR2024.

They can't work Airshagyl without a rig, priority is WS and B8. imo 'in storage' is Carver speak for out of commission, i.e. awaiting major repair. (Fumes - No cash - even if parts from Russia are available.) They will also need permits.

WS terms were announced prior to the shallows sale. ("With production expected from both Block 8 and West Shalva later this year [2024], we believe now is a good time to consider disposing of the maturing shallow structures at the BNG Contract Area.")

They are spending, at WS and in some hopefully audit-proof clear way at B8.

They were contemplating purchase of another oil field. If this was for cash rather than shares into another non-CP hand, they may have wanted to conserve that (imminent) cash. That opportunity may have now passed.

Quite why the AR is still awaited has yet to be revealed, but clearly their 'expectations' in August were not fulfilled (not the first time!) and as the ‘target’ in September was missed ['We continue to make steady progress on the 2024 audited accounts with publication targeted in the second half of October.'] it suggests the progress was insufficient for the Auditors. 31 October: "anticipation in the next few weeks of the relisting of the Company's shares upon the publication of the audited accounts for the year ended 31 December 2024 and the unaudited interim accounts for the 6 months ended 30 June 2025" and 'few' has to be less than 8½ weeks to avoid the AIM de-listing. Neither WS nor B8 were concluded in 2024 therefore no influence. Hopefully the errors found in 2023 were successfully closed and not repeated. Then we could surmise that there is a need to review the asset base, in order to minimise any taxable gains from the shallows sale value and take account of the current licences, perhaps CPRs used in the licence applications, and any devaluation as with 3AB. The Social payments and fine have to be included, the whole of the CE expenditure & income and the loan arrangements may also need careful reviewing.

AR2025 could be more taxing...

So no, imo, more likely a bruised thumb.

jimho joe

Daisy, hope you are not holding your breath as you may be waiting some time, last year it wasn't submitted electronically until December 16th, but dated as at 14th November and probably didn't appear on site for another couple of days. Besides, they have made no statements at all this year. Not even a Statement of Capital after the increase due to buying AB's CS Energy with shares, but that's nothing new for them. The PI is treated with the same disdain.

Part 1

So the wait goes on. The 2024YE Accounts with 'publication targeted in the second half of October' failed to appear and now, much like the lesson learned with the Shallows longstop date, it is no longer tied to a calander date but open ended as in 'the next few weeks', issued under the guise of a General Update. At first glance Casp regulars may conclude that there is SFA change since the last update except drill WS P1 is down to 827m. It is difficult to support the view that B8 has been producing at 1000bopd since the last update, as they have said B8 P1 is due a sidetrack in November (is that assuming under Casp ownership or more benevolence?) to overcome the excess water issue, and P2 has flowed at up to 846 bopd (which is down from the previous RNS of 876bopd) on a test basis. Note key words, test and up to, perhaps recalling the justification for having B8 with its two wells 'from which oil has flowed at rates of up to 800 bopd'. Deja vu?

Meanwhile over at Airshagyl, where the 3-year production licence was awarded in May, priority has moved from A5 to A7 which, subject to rig availability, will continue with the drill they paused around 2150m going on down to a TD of 5300m, yet not until 2026. One rig is at WS P1, one will surely be at B8 P1, are the other two still residing in storage? Drilling A7 was previously scheduled for the imminent G70 rig being acquired from Sinopec: could they now splash some cash or will they battle on as before...

At Yelemes it is not clear why there is no licence. They said in March "Applications to upgrade the previous joint appraisal licence for the Airshagyl and Yelemes Deep structures to two separate 25 year full production licences were submitted in Q3 2024 and we continue to work with the Kazakh authorities to secure the award of both licences." and "Under Kazakh regulations new development work is not permitted on structures under licence upgrade applications .. Accordingly, no development work at the BNG deep structures .. has been permitted.". Although they had previously said "The [necessary] reserve estimate requires the completion of the current work at Deep Well 803 and is therefore expected to be available in Q3 2024." that work could not happen due to the upgrade being sought. The oil found at 803 to date is above salt and not in the deep structure. As even the appraisal licence has now expired again, what rights are they left with at Yelemes?

Part 2

Currently activity is focusing on WS and B8 (both Altynbek Bolatzhan offloads, even though CS Energy may suggest Caspian Sunrise Energy as a sleeping partner to some), with the hope of productive commercial wells needed to replace the shallows. No mention of the exclusivity agreement with the vendors of an established oilfield, but a return to the reviewing of potential mining acquisitions, discussed with AGM attendees last year but nowhere else.

Accepting that the accounts needed the sale to complete to have a clean going concern statement, it is really odd that they cannot conclude the sums to the satisfaction of the Auditors after that completion in July, or was it August? Perhaps having missed their appointed slot they now have to wait for a cancellation, or have further errors been uncovered requiring some 'restatements'. Tick tock.

Noted also that someone had commented that UKOG was also been in suspension for a long time. The AR and Interims were RNSed at 18:00 on the last day before strike-off and trading resumed the next morning. (13 days later a correction to Interims appeared, some () were added ie -ve.) They also announced further corporate activity after publication, and their Auditors are PKF Littlejohn. The parallels are uncanny...especially so if CASP can return with the same multiple [0.0102 to 0.049] would mean 2.15 to 10.33!!

DYOR then DYOC

jimo joe

Still awaited, and there will need to be three RNSs, the AR2024, the H1-2025 (which is also in default) and then restoration of trading. There may be an update as wished for by several here and on Advfn, but it could easily be contained within the AR activity and the H1 activity paragraphs explaining why they have licence issues and why permits take so long to materialise, quelling the fear that they are incompetent in their applications and delinquent in satisfying the licence obligations, and then the 'events after the period' paragraph, as that was when the shallows concluded, surely the most significant event.

Then we come to the reason for the delay, the unaudited H1 cannot precede the AR2024 so why is that the blocker, it's unlikely to be workload at the Auditors nor at Casp. We have to think about what the auditors are not content with. Last year it was the recording of the drilling work done by CTS. This year? Perhaps an impairment due to licence issues, perhaps the quasi personal/inter-company loans to B8. Perhaps the simplistic idea that the West Shalva Contract Area can be acquired without any effect on the P&L, when the holder is a recently established company, CS Energy LLP, that has no income but has licensing fees and design & planning for the obligatory well to pay for, it must have some accounts somewhere. Similarly for B8, where the long established company is being bought for $100, but was unable to fund the drilling of the two wells required by the terms of the licence.

Apparently they continue to make steady progress on the 2024 audited accounts. What a pity that the CFO was unable to satisfy the Auditors first time around this year, especially after errors were uncovered last year. Perhaps accounting is not his metier. It wasn't for Mike Schmidt at B&M either.

jimo, joe

PS The accounts for subsidiary Eragon Petroleum Ltd have been filed at Company House in a timely manner.

CASP have now missed the AR publication deadline for three years consecutively. The previous two years saw the AR publication and restoration of trading RNSs on the same day, before markets opened. There is no reason to think this year will be different.

CASP have said that the West Shalva completion was in April and Altynbek Bolatzhan received his first share payment for CS Energy and the Absolute Oil LLP transfer completed in August with the historic costs now to be paid direct by AR to Kaz in line with the original terms rather than indirectly through CASP as announced in July with the $7M payment. This is significant for the accounts as it removes the $13.8M liability going forward and any concerns with funding it. This is important as CASP are currently, on paper, a pure explorer with no production income, no CE income and a dormant Oil trading business.

The Akkaduk licence has reportedly been mishandled by the Ministries but the Block 8 acquisition is being pursued with just the Sholka structure licence to hand, by acquiring Altynbek Bolatzhan's UAE registered Procyon Investments Limited, which owns the Kazakh registered EPC Munai LLP which in turn holds the licences for the Block 8 structure, for £100 and a $5 royalty per barrel upto a value of $60M.

The Interim Results for 2024 stated "The joint appraisal licence for the Airshagyl and Yelemes Deep structures expired inAugust 2024 but has been extended for up to 12 months to allow the applications for separate 25 year full production licences to be considered. Until the licences have been awarded no further work at either the Airshagyl or Yelemes Deep structures is permitted." It has now expired again and without any news on Yelemes. Although Airshagyl has been granted conditionally, there has been no reported activity. The BNG licenced area was reduced earlier in the year, but not announced.

CASP advised at the end of August that the audited accounts would be published in the next few weeks which is surely imminent now, as are the Interims for 2025. It is reasonable to think that they will both be signed off at the next scheduled Board meeting and that the 'events post period' will read nearly identically! Whether both will be issued simultaneously will be evident shortly.

jimo joe

DM, there is a glimmer now that Absolute Oil have flaring permits for both fields next year (issued last Tuesday, 19th) and ditto for rest of this year from 21 August (issued last Wednesday). Yeah, the logic is lost on me too.

Whether these are the final final final hurdles to allow 'Formal completion', who knows?

Keep watching for a twinkle in CC's eye...

Somm,

They may have identified the G70 for well A7 last July, and reported "Negotiations to acquire a G70 rig, which will allow future faster drilling of deep wells, are at an advanced stage.", but the March update allows you to deduce that the deal had not closed. Aside from the P&A, 'successfully' may need qualifying as "Sinopec, the Chinese drilling contractor, was engaged to drill Deep Well A8. However, BNG did not accept the drilling works and did not pay any amount beyond the prepaid amount."

wrt A7, drilling stopped in March 2022, easily pre-dating the AR RNS from May 2024. Further, 815 used the rig from A5.

HTH

joe

H1 interim results Sept 2024

"The plan with Deep Well A5 is to drill a new side track as a rig becomes available. Again, as rigs become available, the intention is to use an acid treatment at Deep Well A6 and to resume drilling at Deep Well A7."

March update 2025

"Two of the Group's four principal rigs are now in storage. A third rig has been identified to work on Deep Well A5 upon receipt of the full production licence at the Airshagyl structure on the BNG Contract Area and the forth rig is being prepared to drill the 2,660 meter well planned on the West Shalva contract area referred to above."

All Airshagyl wells need a rig and the update identifies the use of the first two, at A5 and WSH-P1. In the AR July 2024 (ie Q3 2024) the expectation was to drill West Shalva Q3 2024, this moved to Q4 in the interim results released at the end of Q3. The flare permit arrived 17th October valid 19 Feb - 30 June. Therefore the well was designed and planned and they were prepared and it's reasonable to think that they had BOP, drill pipe and liners etc. sourced and to hand, so significant spend in 2024. However, further work was not possible until February with the announcement "substantive Kazakh regulatory approvals have been received work on the West Shalva Contract Area may begin.", and yet there is no report of activity. Perhaps the clue is in the phrase 'rig is being prepared to drill': it was on its way in February. Perhaps they have identified a technical issue with this old kit and prepared actually means repaired and they await spares. Are the two rigs 'in storage' similarly incapacitated, or even cannibalized for parts? Also, what of the drill teams? There's been no work for them for a year now.

Answers to these questions and many others will be provided within the overdue 2024AR...

In the 21st Feb RNS "Now that the substantive Kazakh regulatory approvals have been received work on the West Shalva Contract Area may begin..and..A G40 rig previously in use at the BNG Contract Area has been identified for the work and is being transported to the West Shalva Contract area."

However, it seems that they misspoke because in April the present tense became the future tense:"A G40 rig previously in use at the BNG Contract Area has been identified for the work and will be transported to the West Shalva Contract Area. The well is expected to be spudded in Q2 2025 and if successful could commence production in Q3 2025."

We do not know if the rig has yet arrived, or even if it has set out. However, it is fair to assume that spudding did not occur in Q2...

Activity must soon commence if they are to hit the timeframe for the WSH_P1 flaring permit: 1st object in the intervals of 2600-2620 m. testing period: 66 days and 2nd object in the intervals of 2200-2220 m. testing period: 66 days. Valid 10.12.25-20.4.26. So, drilled and perforated in the next 4 months; cf the expectation in the AR 2023 from July 2024, Q3 24 First well drilled at West Shalva.

They need a credible plan in forthcoming 2024 AR.

Just saying...

Noted TNN's post and X link highlighting the new definition of the 'formal completion' and the drift in expected timing, on the two RNSs dated 9th and 23rd. There were 14 days between RNSs: we saw the changes to management of Absolute Oil were dated the 8th and 10th, we've got the $7M, but yet there are still more detail changes needed before formal completion. So are the new owners and management now running AO for the benefit of Casp or themselves at AR, in the absence of this 'formal completion'? Is there a ribbon cutting planned and a button pressing ceremony needed to get the oil to flow to AR?

Perhaps it's time to reflect on what we were told they expected to happen. A year ago in the (delayed) 2023 AR RNS, we have:

Expected future events

Q3 2024

· Licence renewal at Block 8

· Caspian Explorer charter completed

· Confirmation of C1 style reserves for the Yelemes Deep structure at BNG

· Award of licence extension for BNG's Airshagyl & Yelemes Deep structures

· Production commences from Block 8 from existing wells

· Testing new well at Block 8

· First well drilled at West Shalva

· Acquisition of a G70 rig

Q4 2024

· First mining acquisition

· Completion of the West Shalva acquisition

· Completion of the Block 8 acquisition

Suffice to say the score card is grim, but the real question has to be Why? especially as some will most likely still be in the 2024 AR when it appears, and we are talking about missing a near term target by up to one year.

Were their aspirations wildly optimistic because they didn't have a grasp of what was needed to be done or were they unexpectedly legged up by the State? Odd that they comment on the Akkaduk licence yet have nothing to say on the Yelemes. What is clear is that the number of actions needed vastly exceeded those shared in the announcement RNSs and Circulars, and also means that there is now much more awareness in the market (if not the boardroom) that future Corporate actions carry more jeopardy than might be suggested.

Caspian Sunrise are now without production, no boat income but mooring costs and any CTS drilling revenue from work at B8 unlikely to actually be paid for. There is now cash in the bank and we await the board's sage judgement on it's use...

Oh, and the 2024AR of course!

jimo

joe

https://x.com/cramer_mik39974/status/1948297533526335854?t=MSR2i6tiLt3oCrH1Yip-Fg&s=19

Sorry guys, it did and he provided the link:

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/xpgyljx

That's A8 and B8 P1 & P2.

A8 was not declared a duster initially as the first update said "The Board of Caspian Sunrise is pleased to report initial production from Deep Well A8 on the Airshagyl structure at the Group's flagship BNG Contract Area.

Production from the first of three intervals planned for testing has been at the rate of approximately 120 bopd for several days. Work continues to establish the full potential of this well."

Then this: "At Deep Well A8, two intervals were perforated and while oil flowed following both perforations it was not at commercial levels. We have therefore stopped work at A8" followed by this in the AR:"Having extended the well from approximately 4,500 meters to approximately 5,400 meters in 2021 we attempted to produce from three of the potential oil-bearing intervals identified. However, after some initial success, we concluded that Deep Well A8 would not produce at commercial quantities and accordingly the well has been abandoned."

Summarizing, they planned to test three intervals and with the first test they had 120b/day for several days. Two intervals were perforated and oil flowed from both, then work stopped. Having attempted to produce from THREE intervals it was deemed non-commercial and abandoned.

Now they have announced that at B8, P1 has been perforated across an interval of 3 meters at a depth of 3,400 meters to allow testing to commence and in the next update 3 weeks later it has been perforated across an interval of 3 meters from a depth of 3,391 meters in preparation for testing to commence. We are also reminded that "P1 was drilled to a depth of 3,434 meters and Deep Well P2 drilled to a depth of 3,415 meters." Whereas previously they had stated that "In recent years two deep wells have been drilled to depths of 4,203 meters and 3,449 meters respectively, from which oil has flowed at rates of up to 800 bopd but at the time they were shut in, as required as part of the licence renewal process, produced at the rate of 110 bopd."

At P2 they need to provide information on the duration of the test (cf. several days at A8). Is test production the same as serial production? Why use 'approximately' and then quote to the nearest barrel for the day rate? That would be exactly 36.5b/hr ... approximately.

DYOR & DYOC

jimo joe

The Directors have to provide a going concern statement and the Auditors validate that statement. It seems many have no comprehension of the 2023AR statements. Aside from the Auditors qualification on the 'errors' ['have been unable to gain sufficient assurance'] identified by the Directors in the CTS drilling company accounts they supported the Directors view of 'going concern' of the Group in Note 1.1. Most of the expected cash injections listed to support the 'going concern' statement did not happen in their expected timeframe. See page 28 and 38 & 39 of the 2023AR.

In order to have a credible going concern statement this time, the shallows sale has to be completed. Not just in the bag, but completely tied up. This will not occur until later this month when the formal completion of the Disposal is expected and $7M comes in and Absolute Resources have ownership of Absolute Oil which has operational control of the shallows.

This will allow the Directors to state 'going concern', inspite of the hold ups, hiccoughs and c0ck ups with all the other ongoing activities, even if 2024 is not too healthy. And should result in a clean Audit this time when the 2024 AR is released; the numbers are done, its the words that need to be current.

It's a potential reset. Much to look forward to, patience required as ever. Just need to shake a 6 and start...simples

Tick tock.

jimo

joe

Sorry:

https://www.jupiterenergy.com/files/files/913_2522113.pdf

DM

No, unfortunately they will not be trading the shallows oil.

3rd March RNS

"Oil trading

On completion of the disposal of the BNG shallow structures our oil trading activities will then be dependent on production from the BNG deep structures, Block 8 and West Shalva."

AR will have to use local traders or set up their own joint venture.

Don't know if you have been following this theme on Advfn, but basically due to the forward selling of oil to oil traders [which CC has previously said was necessary to keep the company going] and the need to satisfy that commitment prior to the asset sale occurring, there has been no oil available for their jv operation.

It maybe that the purpose of setting up the jv trader was lost in carverisms. Have a read of this clear info from Jupiter Energy, page 3 Formation of Joint Venture. Jupiter run oil fields just to the west of CS Energy's patch.

https://www.jupiterenergy.com › files › files › 913_2522113.pdf

HTH

joe