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Nice 5% for the brave this morning 😁
If price sticks here you will be right, will be good and then good news next year should lift us
I see there's a lot of negative opinion and HOC is down 4% as I write.
H1 was a break even half. My estimates show 2023 H2 will repeat that.
But 2024 looks a lot more positive. Here's why:
1/ Pallancata falls away. I questioned HOC 18 months ago why this wasn't going into C&M. Clearly in retrospect they should have done that sooner than Q4 2023. Their rationale was that there was potential at Royropota, but I fail to see the connection i.e. new exploration near a mine doesn't mean keeping an existing mine open, unless there was some politics going on?
2/ Political situation in Peru improved. Moreover HOC is now multi country so far less reliant on Peru.
3/ Inmaculada. The rise in AISC is largely down to the env't permit and new exploration should drive down the AISC back below $1300. I model it at $1250.
4/ San Jose is a great example of this. The AISC has been driven down over 10% in H1 2023 through capital expenditure. I see San Jose continuing in a steady state.
5/ Mara Rosa is 6 months away from first pour. Modelling 20koz in H1 2024 and 50k in H2 2024 the numbers start to get exciting.
6/ Royropota is 2026/2027. Any investment decision will be balanced with paying down debt.
7/Cash generation FCF is forecast at 18.6% yield for 2024. I don't think people understand how quickly the debt can be paid down. It will be largely gone in 24 months.
8/ The write downs may yet yield value. Azuca, Crespo, Aclara are written down based on accounting rules not based on any physical event. There's possible upside but all of these adjustments are non-cash in any case.
Conclusion: Using H2 2024 forecasts, I arrive to a forward PE of 3.5 at today's market price. That's based on a run rate of 100k/oz @ $1000 AISC for Mara Rosa, Inmaculada 260k/oz @ $1250, San Jose 88k/oz @ $1550. With $100m overheads.
In other words HOC is cheap in my opinion, and today's results don't reflect the forward tajectory.
GLA
Yes, no investor should be surprised. These results are conducive to the Q2 2023 production report released in July.
Market already had most of bad news already baked in judging by SP response
Core cpi later today. PMs really going to have to go higher for this to break above 100p now.
Shame to see cash and net debt smacked
Maybe a rise into them but they are pretty dire with low production, very high costs and sizeable losses. Pallancata is closing in the next 3 months which will help the losses and not much further reduc3 production as nearly spent. However jam tomorrow, always jam tomorrow. When Mara Rosa comes on stream it will help but then there is hefty investment in the new pallancata and we will already have maybe $200m debt or near half cap especially if price falls much on these sad results. Jam tomorrow is a little further off.
Poor resultscand burning through cash. The cost of mining an ounce of gold is really high. Dont like the cash balance looking really poor.
Good sign, a rise into half year results. Not really a mining investor and will be off just under the psychological £1.
Snap, Glen
I'm holding on. This looks like it may have legs. But my time horizon may be longer than some. Don't forget that this was over 300p in 2020 and near 600p in 2011. Buy and hold for me, but each to their own.
I wish everyone good luck. My very modest position closed here with previous divis as the profit. All the best Tony
Great stuff! Now let's make 90 support 😁. Looking for late 90s for a decent return. Looking at broker estimates there is a good 10/20% from here with little downside. And with £250k+ trades this has plenty of liquidity.
That 90p is giving some resistance. Be good to see it break through today
Sorry I inadvertently omittted the last part of price range for support , so 85.80-87.80 is possible , area for support to arise.
Today sp, reaction of over 2%. Volume is less than 50%, of previous 5 trading days , so likely a normal bullish retracement . The place to look for impending support is the price peak of 15/8/23 , with a price range of 85.8-87. A smaller timeframe chart, less than daily, would help decide when the temporary fall, is over.
Article almost as credible as your posts 😉
Knock knock knocking on the 90’s door! Only a short hop to 100’s now :)
Https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/berenberg-on-hochschild-mining--14470932.html
Lucky to sell at 89.5p and anticipating a fall back after such a rally, bought back in at 84p, 81.2p, 86.2p and 85.98p; it looks like there's plenty more to come, especially with improved brokers rating. Is Berenberg the in house broker??
Https://walletinvestor.com/lse-stock-forecast/hoc-stock-prediction#google_vignette
Sp, coil pattern began February 2023, showing reducing height of formation going forward from that date. Price coils, when they breakout are fast moving. Sp, projections are 105(possible overhead supply) and 129.
When the up move begins,confirmation of fast movement will probable be reflected in the Bollinger bands separating from each other, that is too band heading up and lower band going down. If at a later point the lower band turns up, expect a retracement, in the sp.
…apart from Hoc being mainly a gold miner now
I don't take a blind bit of notice from those clowns but there has been word of the silver vaults starting to creak these past few weeks.