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Hoping to buy a few for under a quid before the market catches up with the news 🤞
Would not want to be short today.
Finally the permit has arrived. Great news.
Some talked about £1 of upside buy I am content with 50p up
Winstonwolf, I believe the breakout to confirm bullishness could begin today 😂
The MEIA is an important milestone for the Company, paving the way for its flagship mine to generate significant additional value for all stakeholders over the next two decades
Looks like an up day.
I agree we need a breakout to confirm bullishness, however my figure is around 83.
We get two weekly closes around 83 and i believe the downtrend that we have been in for 3 years, will be over.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ls75ZGof/
Here's hoping one of us is right.
Intact uptrend from October 2022, and a line drawn through the last two peaks coincides with the top Bollinger band, so if the sp, can close above 79.0, there is a chance HOC, can move beyond the previous peaks around 80.0. RSI(Relative strength index), is above 50, which is bullish, on weekly and daily charts. The weekly chart shows a tightening of price action, leading one to an ambitious future price target of 160.0.
Inmaculada. HOC's work with SENACE is apparently completed. It seems HOC is just waiting for approval of extension to be signed off. In what form HOC is keeping stum! The current license runs to the end of 2023.
If the extension is not approved by H1 results time HOC will update the market anyway on implications for production for this year. Underground development is impacted right now and will be further curtailed the longer the uncertainty goes on. The reduced development work will reduce production from this mine going forward.
Pallancata. Due to close by the end of this year. Care & Mtnce.
Mara Rosa. 88% complete. It sounds as though production will start up early next year. Progress good. Commissioning of some elements of the processing facility to start soon.
Brownfield Exploration. It seems this was put on hold in H1 and is still on hold due to SENACE saga not being resolved.
Gold Production Hedging. This is a crime scene. New hedging out to 2027 for Mara Rosa when gold is likely to far exceed the hedging prices.
Surprised HOC is holding up so well today, not that this is overpriced but rather has in the past underperformed. Results are not nearly as bad as they might have been based on outlook 6-7 months ago and perhaps the worst is priced in.
Agreed. Part of the value case is also the silver lining, ie exposure to silver price.
Here’s a thought
When Maria Rosa is at full pelt, and IFFF Inmaculada permit is solved, production should be close to that of Centamin and costs similar, but Hoc valuation is only a third.
Of course Hoc debt is high, and there are the debt servicing costs, and there is the new hedge but that could be a benefit.
So even if Hoc should be valued a third lower than Cey that would still mea a doubling of the share price…IF
These results don’t look bad to me and I would be bold buy Muri’s holding sold yesterday if had the cash and bravery.
Production is up slightly on the last quarter, if still quite a bit lower than historically, overall debt at over $200m is very high but as expected for necessary Mara Rosa investment to make up for collapsed Pallancata.
At least we have saved a bit of cash having had to reduce exploration at Inmaculada pending permitting. Yet again the board suggest the conclusion will not be binary, and they are negotiating a compromise which will result in increased costs/lower production/less exploration but the big question how much.
There are more hedges but at gold prices above record high, efficacy of them all depends on inflation, ie if it continues high then aisc could rise at 10%+ a year meaning hedges turn out less than today’s price in real terms, but if inflation is rapidly controlled could be good - Hoc has a good track record of hedging and with debt so very high can’t afford to ride out gold price falls as well as other so makes sense. And as Tornado says probably necessary for the banks, just a big shame they hit peak borrowing and gearing ata. Time of peak interest rates but hen Hochschild have never been lucky, wonder if that is partly why Bustamente has given up?
Performance has held up over Q1. Debt increased by $9M, but the vast majority of spend on Santa Rosa mine has probably gone through and still on schedule for delivery in 2024. They have hedged quite a lot of gold around 5/8ths of Brazil production. Although hedging has worked well this year we await to see how well it turns out in years to come. Probably required to satisfy the banks to cover loans. 2025 looks like a recovery year for HOC for those patient to wait for it.
Production is strong and MEIA is progressing ..
Sold me entire holding.... seems to be in downward trend
Thanks so much, you are quite right, it has just popped up, wonder what they will say this time about Inmaculada, scary!
Conference call provider has HOC scheduled for 1430 GMT tomorrow.
Well I thought it was this week for Q2, where do get next week, on some sites now says aug16 tbc and on Hoc site now says next results are interims at v end of Aug?? Last year Q2 was 22 July? May be they are having a challenge auditing them or just a muddle publicising them? Anyone have a clue….
Agreed, RNS possible/likely by this coming Tuesday (25/07/2023), when HOC Q2 Production Results call has been scheduled. Think likely positive news and jump in EV. EV/EBITDA currently less than 3.
They start and end 1 year later virtually all in the same place.
Does it always mean something? Stock valuation fluctuations often seem to mean relatively little to me. If there was insider news out but not reaching us would the volume trade not be higher?
Would not suprise me if there is an update shortly. Maybe tomorrow or next week. drops 5% over what ? alsways means something is coming