H&t Group Plc Share Chat (HAT)

After spending nearly an hour hassling iWeb on Live Chat this morning, they finally credited the funds for me & my family this lunchtime.

So probably worth checking if you're with them, Halifax or Lloyds (all part of the same group).

Grezzz - you're welcome! I'm glad yours has arrived safely.

iWeb has just updated as follows:

"I can confirm that the cash is expected to be received on or around 28th August.... The funds will be received as a lump sum, which will require reconciliation. We will credit customers' accounts as soon as possible following receipt and reconciliation of the payment."

No doubt they'll drag their feet as long as possible - anything to hang onto OUR cash! It takes them 3 business days to credit a linked bank account if you ever withdraw funds. Still, they are cheap - particularly for higher value ISA pots (zero annual fees & £5/deal) - so mustn't grumble TOO much I guess......

Lordloadsoflolly - Thanks for your update. Meanwhile, I'm pleased to confirm that II have just credited my account! Trust yours will arrive shorty! :)

Grezzz - not yet.

I contacted my provider (iWeb) about it on 21 Aug and was told "I can confirm the cash is expected on or around 28th August and will be credited to customers accounts as soon as possible."

I've recontacted them today asking them when funds will hit, given that under the Scheme terms "settlement will be effected by the crediting of CREST accounts not later than 14 days after the Effective Date, being 28 August 2025".

Will update here as soon as they reply.

Anyone in funds yet?

Been here a long time, topping up 5 times along the way..

Now just need to work out what to invest the proceeds into.

Whilst the significant gains more than compensate, I'm genuinely sorry not to be able to invest longer term in H&T.

It first came onto my radar in 2017 and I made my initial purchase that November. I built the bulk of my holding between then & 2023, at prices ranging from £1.96 to £4.49. The average (excluding my recent short term purchases a few pence below £6.50 once the deal looked done) was £3.29. So a great outcome, particularly after adding in the c. 5% annual yield.

H&T was one of those few AIM companies which consistently made a profit, generally delivered on its outlook forecasts & constantly grew - excluding the Covid period when all its shops had to close.

Earlier this year, conscious of how large a part of my portfolio it had become, I started engaging with CEO Chris Gillespie to reassure myself I'd done whatever due diligence I could.

I found him both approachable & responsive, providing straight answers in a timely manner. He welcomed my request to visit a local store and to quiz the staff, arranging for both the Regional Director & Area Manager to attend. I came away reassured, deciding not to reduce my holding despite its disproportionate size relative to my total portfolio.

My only hope now is that the new owners adopt a similar way of running the business and that all customers & staff who wish to continue engaging with H&T are treated respectfully & fairly with the same excellent comms.

Farewell H&T. It's been a great ride.

Laughton - assuming the timetable's accurate, LATEST date for despatch of cheques in respect of the Cash Consideration and settlement through CREST is 28th August.

I'm expecting it to be concluded sooner than that. Even if it isn't, it's a more than decent return for tying up cash over such a short period.

I note the spread has widened today and was quoted 648p on a dummy buy based on very small volume (a c. £13 trade!). Would presumably have been more expensive still on a higher value trade, but I've maxed out the free cash in my family's various ISAs. Looks like I got in at the right time.....

Bit less than that - effective date might be only 2 weeks away but "latest" date for settlement through CREST is not until August 28th.

I can't see any way this deal won't go through now, so have used all my family's available ISA cash to top up our holdings at c. 647p per share incl. dealing costs & PTM levies.

At an exit price of 650p, that gives a 3p gain per share or 0.46% "interest" (3/647). Now the expected effective date is just two weeks away on 14th August, that's an annualised "interest" rate of around 12% (0.46% x 26).

Sure, there's a minimal risk something could still get in the way. But I'm prepared to take that risk in return for the likely short term gain.

Lsughton - thanks for that. You win today’s prize for being the most eagle-eyed!

Not always easy to see the RNSs that we are interested in amidst all those Form 8.3 announcements so thought I'd post this here. FCA approval now granted and updated timetable of events issued by H&T as follows:

Event

Time and/or date(1) (2)

Court Sanction Hearing

12 August 2025

Last day of dealings in, and for registration of transfers of, H&T Shares

13 August 2025

Scheme Record Time

6.00 p.m. on 13 August 2025

Disablement in CREST of H&T Shares

6.00 p.m. on 13 August 2025

Dealings in H&T Shares suspended

7.30 a.m. on 14 August 2025

Effective Date of Scheme

14 August 2025 (3)

Cancellation of admission of H&T Shares to trading on AIM

7.00 a.m. on 15 August 2025

Latest date for despatch of cheques in respect of the Cash Consideration and settlement through CREST

By 28 August 2025

Long-Stop Date

11.59 p.m. on 31 December 2025(4)

Event

Time and/or date(1) (2)

Court Sanction Hearing

12 August 2025

Last day of dealings in, and for registration of transfers of, H&T Shares

13 August 2025

Scheme Record Time

6.00 p.m. on 13 August 2025

Disablement in CREST of H&T Shares

6.00 p.m. on 13 August 2025

Dealings in H&T Shares suspended

7.30 a.m. on 14 August 2025

Effective Date of Scheme

14 August 2025 (3)

Cancellation of admission of H&T Shares to trading on AIM

7.00 a.m. on 15 August 2025

Latest date for despatch of cheques in respect of the Cash Consideration and settlement through CREST

By 28 August 2025

Long-Stop Date

11.59 p.m. on 31 December 2025(4)

Positive RNS this morning with an update on the deal timetable:

"In light of the anticipated timeline for satisfaction of the FCA Change in Control Condition, the parties now expect that the Scheme will become Effective during the third quarter of 2025."

TheBlueShadow - you’re welcome. These sort of takeovers always take time to clear all the regulatory hurdles. But hopefully we’ll get there within the next couple of months or so.

When I received the letter about it, I assumed it was already a done deal - thanks for the clarifucation

Vendric - never any harm in banking a profit.

A firm timetable would have helped. But with various milestones having to be hit along the way, I guess it’s harder to pin down precisely.

Only thing we currently know is 31 12 25 being a “hard stop” date.

I don’t see the economic situation changing significantly between now & year end (least, not in the UK). So I don’t think that’ll be a deal buster. And if Trump introduced executive orders that could harm the US economy longer term, all the more reason for FirstCash to want to diversify abroad.

I’ll be hanging onto my shares. The market’s only pricing in a c. 1.5% chance of the deal falling through (650p deal price v. around 640p currently). So the general consensus is that this is a done deal, but you can never be certain until it’s official!

I sold my shares today. Probably unnecessary but I was worried by the lack of a firm timetable. If it is delayed into autumn, economic situation might have changed and deal might fall through.

Hardboy - best of luck with RFX.

I’m expecting their current FY to be pretty strong.

Assuming no H&T deal hiccoughs, I might put some of the proceeds their way. But I’d want to get in sub 300p, as even after its recent retrace, I feel it’s still a bit toppy currently. Could be wrong though, but my gut feel as to when H&T was oversold or overbought generally served me well.

No thoughts of adding. I had set myself a target of 640 to sell before the deal goes through. I'd revisit that if I had an idea of when. It's tantalisingly close, but never quite made it.

I have bought into Ramsdens after their recent dip. Looking at sales, profit, dividend, and NAV progress over the last 4 years it looks to be heading in the right direction for sure.

Good luck.

Hardboy - as you probably know, it HAS to complete in the second half of this year or the deal fails altogether, as 31 Dec 2025 is a hard stop date, written into the takeover agreement.

So yes, not very helpful of them to re-state this as the timetable. But at least it’s got shareholder approval now.

I’m still toying with adding, but with only a c1.6% discount to the deal price, not sure it’s worth it. Particularly if things could drag on into autumn or even winter 2025. I could then get a better % return in cash savings - and without the risk.

Whilst it may be less relevant to H&T holders now (unless they're thinking of transferring to RFX), I found the following analysis of gold fascinating.

You may be about to change your understanding of gold & its long term performance!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpL7I8MuUGU

Did anyone else tune into today's RFX presentation?

I found it interesting how - proportionately - their pawnbroking division forms a much smaller part of the whole business.

Interestingly, they referred to the current gold price multiple times, saying their current budgeting assumed it would eventually drop. Though Peter Kenyon (CEO) did also admit he'd got gold price assumptions wrong multiple times before! It backed up my view that a premium-priced takeover-induced exit from H&T when gold is at/near historical highs might prove to be quite timely for shareholders. There again, gold could just carry on rising.....

The presentation also suggested Ramsdens SP had been boosted by H&T's takeover bid, in which case I suspect it may prove to be temporary. But again, who knows?

I found Peter's style confident (almost to the point of slight arrogance/complacency at times). Certainly a very different character from Chris G. He didn't feel FirstCash's takeover deal would have any great impact on Ramsdens. I'm not so sure. FirstCash is well funded and US companies have a tendency to be far more aggressive, expansionary & impatient in their growth strategies.

Overall, it reinforced my view that there will likely be better entry points for RFX some time in the future. It just feels a bit frothy to me right now, buoyed both by the high gold price & (to me, unlikely) takeover speculation.

No problem.

The scheme timetable is frustrating, but what is expected. Until the court hearing and EGM are done there is still uncertainty. We will have to wait at least another month to know the timetable.

If, in that time it goes about 640, I will probably sell and go.

Ramsdens up & down a bit today. but not shot off too high. I shall keep watch.

Sorry for the lower case throughout my previous post.

My **** or bust comment provoked LSE to downgrade everything to lower case!

hardboy - you're welcome. and thanks for the feedback from blackrock's world mining agm.

gold is traditionally seen as the "safe" go-to asset during times of uncertainty & conflict. we've certainly plenty of that going on right now. but will we still feel quite as uncertain about everything in a year or so's time?

in short, nobody knows. but one suspects there may be some form of resolution (or at least a softening of positions) in russia, ukraine & gaza by then. and inflation may also be on a steadier lower footing.

i also suspect trump's love affair with ever-changing tariff percentages may have waned before the mid terms next november. should it become clear before then they've caused collateral damage to the us economy, trump will change tack to avoid voter disaffection.

us interest rate movement will also be something to watch, along with the 10-year us treasury yield. trump & powell are on something of a collision course right now. so, ironically, the more trump hectors powell for interest rate cuts, the further out they become!

in short, lots to consider. so good luck if you take a small position in rfx - let us know how it works out.

moving on to h&t - sadly, no timeline to completion in today's scheme document.

the scheme effective date is d+2, where d is "expected to be in the second half of 2025, to be determined following the satisfaction or waiver of the fca change in control condition", with a long-stop (i.e. **** or bust) date of 11.59pm on 31 december 2025:

www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/h-t-group--hat/publication-of-scheme-document/8911075

Thanks for your very useful analysis, Lord.

On gold I went to the AGM of Black Rock world Mining recently and they spent some time talking of gold. The reason why gold has been so strong over the last 3 years is because central banks around the world have been buying it. (Interestingly the nation's central bank which bought most in 2024 was Poland. Not sure how that information can be used for gain, but still interesting.) I suppose while there is an increased expectation of conflict that trend may continue.

I am with you on buying companies when undervalued, though Ramsden does not look over valued on fundamentals despite being at an all time high.

If I take a punt it may be a small initial investment, then follow more closely. (No matter what my intentions I always follow shares in which I'm invested more closely than ones in which I'm not.)

Hardboy - yes, Ramsdens interims are certainly impressive. And that dividend % increase + special dividend has been very well received.

As a non-holder, my concern would be twofold:

1) Gold prices are responsible for much of this boost in performance. And whilst they say "In the short term, we expect the gold price to remain high", they also refer to a "sustained exceptionally high gold price".

Exceptional tells you that this current trend is out of the ordinary. It may be sustained, it may not. But history suggests periods of unusually high gold prices are eventually usually followed by significant re-traces.

2) The RFX SP is at an all time high. It may very well rise even further. But - as with H&T - I prefer buying when I sense a company may be undervalued. I don't get that sense with RFX at the moment. So for now I won't be putting any H&T proceeds there (assuming our deal goes through).

Their interims today look excellent

Agree, my Lord, normally with takeovers I like to take the money early rather than wait what can be a very long time to make some small extra %, and of course possibly see something go wrong. In this case I can't really see things going wrong, and that 2-3% (include dealing costs if you sell rather than wait) maybe worth waiting for..

Must research Ramsdons

Only a couple of days to wait before H&T's Scheme Document is due out.

Presumably - amongst other things - this will set out their bid timetable.

As things stand, just over 2% separates the FirstCash deal (650p) from H&T's current share price. If the timetable to completion is relatively short, some may consider it worth adding now to gain the extra 2%+ in a month ot two's time. But of course that 2% reflects the perceived risk (low, yet feasible) that something crops up in the meantime to derail the whole process.

I might just be prepared to take that risk, but will wait to see the timetable first.

Lancebombadier - as a private shareholder, pretty much zero as the deal is all but priced in.

I'm not 100% sure whether you'd still qualify for the 11p / share dividend if you bought before 29th May.

You would have done pre-bid announcement. But whether you still qualify or whether it's only shareholders on the register pre-bid is unclear (to me at least).

If you're asking what the case is for FirstCash to buy in here, the answer's scale, market diversification & a relatively cheap valuation (by US standards that is).

What is the basic case for buying in here . Forgive my stupidity

It's quite nice to have people quoting your words but what was the point of that post?

Nostradanus - as your name's similar to a certain French astrologer, you probably know what I'm going to say next.

Which is: if you did attend yesterday's AGM (highly doubtful), why not actually post something useful of your own?

I went to the AGM today. I expected a lot of private investors asking lots of questions which would be subtly avoided. There were only 3 of us PIs, and one had not heard the news of the offer! The place was full of brokers and lawyers, and we PIs were ignored a little bit. I sat next to the CFO, who was quite chatty (she must wonder if she will keep her job.) I did ask her about Ramsdens. She thought it was a well run business, with a slightly different focus, and geographic reach than H&T. She thought they did more Forex.

H&T released details of its 2025 Performance Share Plan (PSP) today for Executive Directors & Senior Management.

This grants them free shares (options) in April 2028, subject to various criteria being met - including continued H&T employment.

There are three different thresholds for qualification (Minimum, Target & Maximum). These thresholds reference both Total Shareholder Return (TSR) and EPS growth. The greater the growth, the more options they receive.

The scheme is split equally (50/50) based on targets for total shareholder return (TSR) and growth in basic earnings per share (EPS) between 1st January 2025 & 30th September 2027.

2024:

47% Minimum TSR growth needed to qualify for ANY options (30% of max. award)

28% Minimum EPS growth needed to qualify for ANY options (30% of max. award)

2025:

30% Minimum TSR growth needed to qualify for ANY options (30% of max. award)

30% Minimum EPS growth needed to qualify for ANY options (30% of max. award)

2025's Minimum TSR growth qualifier is LESS demanding than 2024's

2025's Minimum EPS growth qualifier is MORE demanding than 2024's

2024:

53% Target TSR growth needed to qualify for 50% of maximum award

36% Target EPS growth needed to qualify for 50% of maximum award

2025:

50% Target TSR growth needed to qualify for 50% of maximum award

50% Target EPS growth needed to qualify for 50% of maximum award

2025's Target TSR growth qualifier is LESS demanding than 2024's

2025's Target EPS growth qualifier is MORE demanding than 2024's

2024:

63% Maximum TSR growth needed to qualify for 100% of maximum award

45% Maximum EPS growth needed to qualify for 100% of maximum award

2025:

100% Maximum TSR growth needed to qualify for 100% of maximum award

100% Maximum EPS growth needed to qualify for 100% of maximum award

2025's Maximum TSR growth target is MORE demanding than 2024's

2025's Maximum EPS growth target is MORE demanding than 2024's

CONCLUSIONS:

For H&T employees to benefit most from the new scheme, EPS over the period needs to rise MORE than 2024's Performance Share Plan.

2025 Total Shareholder Return qualifying thresholds are much more lenient at the Minimum level & slightly more lenient at Target level. But much more demanding at Maximum level.

I like the fact there's a further two year share retention period for any options awarded under the scheme. And that it targets both company performance & staff continuity.

For the most part, it also sets a higher bar for qualification under the new scheme compared to 2024, which is encouraging.

I take share tipsters with a pinch of salt, but an interesting article on H&T and Ramsdens nonetheless:

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-14627603/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-Unearth-beat-firms-set-profit-new-GOLD-RUSH.html

Apologies. That last sentence exceeded my max - should have read "... are tested & rolled out gradually to minimise any issues".

Main takeaways below from my 2nd April store visit.

Many thanks again to H&T's CEO, Executive PA, Southern Regional Director, Area Manager, Store Manager & Team for organising/hosting.

SOUTH EAST ENGLAND STORE:

Narrow frontage, close to bus stop & shopping centre entrance

Windows featured mostly ladies silver & gold jewellery on colour-coded displays, merchandised by carat

Also a small selection of mens jewellery, watches & gold coins

Inside counters of new & pre-owned silver & gold jewellery, priced from £10 to several £100s

Staffed counters (similar to a bank/building society) towards the rear

Six staff at peak, with a mixture of FTE & PTE

Entrance decorated with corporate-colour balloons, creating a fun, welcoming atmosphere

Customers almost the entire time I was there (best part of 2 hours on a Wednesday afternoon)

Sunday trading trialled but discontinued at this particular store, except during peak Nov & Dec period

LIKE FOR LIKE SALES:

Up since 31 Dec 2024 across all 14? stores in the area

This generally seemed to mirror the current trend at H&T nationwide

PLEDGE BOOK:

Small business loans are growing, often with the same item being pledged & redeemed multiple times

Typical users included builders, tradesmen & hospitality business owners

Store's individual customers included high concentration of Asians, many buying/pledging 22k gold jewellery

CUSTOMER ATTRACTION & RETENTION:

Community events held to recruit new customers & encourage repeats

Flyers, promoting preferential forex rates & explaining other services offered

Existing opt-in customers periodically contacted & incentivised to re-visit

EPOS TILLS & IT SYSTEM:

Online sales are growing in proportion, with Click & View in your local store proving particularly popular

EVO Point of Sale system - phase 2 currently being rolled out: A customised system, streamlining different transactions including purchases, forex, pledge lending etc.

Advantages: faster, easier customer journey in-store. Better data gathering to improve marketing & stock allocation

New releases are coded by a mix of in-house & overseas programmers, then gradually rolled out for testing & debugging, starting with "super users". This has led to smooth integration with very few issues experienced to date

STAFF:

Store felt welcoming with attentive staff

High employee retention & loyalty here, but also more widely across the group

Regional Director & Area Manager both 20+ years' service. Store manager 8+ years

Long service events to thank & reward staff, along with bonus/share option schemes & a generous staff discount

Stores in this area had regular area/regional comms & visits & could make video calls to Head Office

CONCLUSIONS:

Having worked in retail, I was greatly reassured by my visit

Regional sales remain buoyant; group sales appear equally robust

The company is ambitious, but store estate growth remains controlled

Increasingly customised systems are tested & rolle

Hardboy - it’s in the South East. Will give a full update post-visit.

If anyone has any particular store-related questions they’d like asked. Or more general ones for the Regional Director, please let me know by tomorrow afternoon (Tues 1st).

Which store is it?

At my request, H&T has kindly arranged a hosted local store visit for me on Wednesday 2 April, so I'll update you on here later that week.

It's with the Regional Director, Area Manager, Executive PA, Store Manager & Staff, so should be highly informative.

Looks like Artemis picked up almost all the H&T shares Octopus sold yesterday.

Thank you for posting these very interesting questions and answers to the chief executive of H&T.

Full credit to Chris Gillespie, H&T's CEO. Following yesterday's webinar, I emailed him with my questions.

Not only did he reply at length that same evening, he's also arranging a hosted local store visit - at my request - to learn a bit more.

That's what I call private investor engagement! Chris authorised me to post my questions and his replies below, which I hope others will find useful:

Q: Since year end, has pledge book growth been sustained at a similar level to Q4?

A: No. We don’t tend to see much growth in January or February, and there does appear to be greater seasonality than was historically the case. For example, some of the business borrowers who stocked up pre Christmas have repaid their loans. But we expect them to return. Loan demand has remained strong, which is the main thing, with - as we anticipated - higher redemptions.

Q: What proportion of N.I. & business rate cost increases for the current FY are you hoping to mitigate against? And how?

A: Market expectations are unchanged so I guess the answer to this is ‘all of it’. The growth we have seen has been delivered with no increase in store FTEs and being more efficient is a key priority for us.

Q: Is there a significant difference in redemption rates & loan duration between personal & business customers?

A: Redemption rates are a bit higher on larger loans. Duration is about the same.

Q: What were the results of your Sunday trading trial in c. 10% of stores and is this being rolled out / kept to the current trial stores / dropped?

A: We are still learning. Some which we have opened we will cease. Some we did not open we will do so. In areas of high footfall, it has delivered incremental business for us, often with new customers. We will have a proportion of stores open on an ongoing basis where it is right to do so. A success overall.

Q: Has the reported national increase in shoplifting & staff abuse been felt significantly by H&T? And what measures are in place to try to counter it?

A: The former, no. We have fairly elaborate security measures in place, which helps. The latter, sadly, yes and we make sure we look after our people when it happens.

Q: Whilst presenting a "strong investment case" for H&T, Director share buys have remained negligible this past year, despite stronger results and a weaker share price. I raised this with Simon Walker at last year's webinar and was told it was a shareholder concern the company was aware of and that he was looking to address the issue.

Significant Director share buys are viewed by many investors as a clear sign of confidence. And vice versa to some extent. So why do you think this buying reluctance continues, particularly given H&T's confident outlook statement?

A: I increased my holding in 2024 (it is now around 200k shares). As did Di. The board is aware of this issue and is looking at ways to address it. I will raise the matter and your very valid points once again.

Unlike last year, none of the questions I submitted this time were read out or addressed.

So I've emailed them to Chris Gillespie and will update here with any response (assuming he replies & is happy for me to share the answers).

Investor presentation to ask management team your questions - Register interest in this event here:

https://engageinvestor.news/HAT_IP25

Gold hitting its highest ever price should prove a tailwind for H&T.

Particularly if sustained (which I suspect it will be for a while, as it provides a hedge against Trump-induced stockmarket volatility):

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqjd90nk25yo

H&T will be presenting its annual results online next Tuesday (18th March) at 12.00 noon.

Anyone can enrol free via the link below, submitting their questions in advance or live on the day (they've always featured & answered mine in the past, so it's worth doing!)

engageinvestor.news/HAT_IP25

Interestingly, the share price is following a fairly similar pattern to last year.

However, last time the downturn spanned early Dec 23 to early Mar 24. The SP then went on to increase by nearly £1 over the following two months, before giving up around half those gains again.

This year, we're currently up around 40p from the mid Feb low. I'd be very surprised if we don't breach £4 again at some stage before the summer's out. Beyond that is anyone's guess. The point at which I'd significantly reduce remains £5.50.

And Huge Volume today.

Dawson_64 - interesting points.

A fair part of the increased debt position is down to pledge book growth though.

Would the market really have reservations, when the company's central business model revolves around borrowing cash at a relatively low rate, then lending it out at a significantly higher one? Particularly when customers are required to pledge items as a hedge against potential default?

Admittedly, the company has also invested in gradual expansion & modernisation of the store estate, as well as the Maxcroft acquisition (which I have to say, I think they paid a slightly rich price for). But both those should still prove cash positive in the short to medium term.

The fund reductions you mention may be having an impact. Don't know about Camelot, but Octopus & Fidelity still retain significant stakes of around 10% each. So as things stand, the reductions don't look like a major vote of no confidence.

I guess the higher cost of borrowing & slightly pared back dividend growth rate could also be denting sentiment slightly.

But to end on a positive, H&T's SP experienced a similar slump last year.

Between January 24's TU and March 24's Prelims, the SP drifted from around 400p to 335p. It then rapidly went back up above 400p, dipped again to around 365p in early April 24, before climbing to a peak of around 427p in early May 24.

All of which goes to show this is less of a tuck-away-&-forget kind of share. More one to trade periodically.

Thanks for comments. My only guess at market perception of possible negatives might be the fact they now have a large debt position to finance compared to zero for a few years previously. Of course the idea is to finance to expand and it may all be fine.

There have also been some major shareholders reducing their position which may account for market disinterest. Camelot -1.47m, Octopus -612000, Fidelity -245000.

Dawson_64 - I agree it does seem puzzling, especially after January's TU which I felt was generally pretty reassuring.

A few possible explanations spring to mind:

1) The TU implied much of the (significant) pledge book growth came in relatively late LY. If so, the main benefit, profits-wise, may only be felt in the current FY.

Since UK markets seem less forward-looking than usual at the moment, they attach less value to future earnings (however certain) than current ones.

2) HAT won't escape the persistent gloomy UK retail & economic backdrop. Personally, I think if there are worries on that front, they're largely misplaced. April's NI increase will undoubtedly add to costs (TU implied to the tune of approx. £2m). However the company said it was exploring options to offset this - at least in part. And at times when inflation's ticking up & money's short for a lot of households, there are far worse industries to be in than pawnbroking.

3) Lack of recent share buying by Executive Directors. Personally, this IS a major concern of mine and I made it very clear at last year's results webinar. Their answer was a mixture of waffle and "watch this space" kind of language. Well, I have been watching this space & nothing's changed. So I'll be raising it very forcefully again at this year's webinar.

If Executive Directors feel the current lowly multiple undervalues the company they're running, they should put their money where their mouth is. The amount they earn, most of them must have at least a bit of dosh they could invest. And if they don't feel it's undervalued, perhaps they should come clean (yes I know it's a trifle unlikely they'd let on. But it would be jolly nice of them to let us know!)

4) Many AIM & UK small cap shares are struggling currently, with investors perhaps preferring the perceived (though not always real) safety of blue chips &/or US & global funds.

5) "The market" has simply got it wrong. It wouldn't be the first time with HAT. I've traded this share on several occasions over the years I've held it. Historically, it's often gyrated between periods of over-exuberance & unfounded gloom. My gut feel right now is we're more in the latter camp. In which case an upwards re-rate might be on the cards within the next 12 months. But as I often say with this share, I could be wrong.......

FEB 2025 - Ftse 100 hits all time high as does gold. Yet this is trundling along near the year's low despite what would seem to be ideal market conditions for the services offered. Any ideas of why this is currently so unloved and 150p+ lower than prices recorded in 2022-23.

Hardboy - depends whether that insolvency litigation company is AIM listed like H&T.

In which case, today's bounce is more down to relief that IHT exemption hasn't been completely removed on AIM shares.

Hardboy - I agree NED share buys are slightly more nuanced.

It’s really the Executive Directors I want to see buying.

Your fellow Lord, Lord Lee, is actively campaigning for NEDs specifically to buy more shares in the companies that pay their fees.

whilst I love seeing directors of all types buying shares in companies I have shares in, there is a counter argument. One of the top head hunting firms (forgotten which one) publish a guide to being an NED, and they suggest (not as strong as recommend) that NEDs do NOT takes shares in the company. Their argument is that NEDs are internal policemen to ensure companies are run ethically & legally, and owning shares in the company may compromise this role.

Judging by the share price, last Thursday's TU has calmed investor nerves (for now at least).

Before its release, I said H&T looked priced to disappoint. Since that hasn't happened - and there's one less uncertainty to worry about as a result - the price has generally nudged up over the past week.

It's still early days - and I've probably tempted fate writing this! - but I sense we could be in for a small, gradual upwards re-rate in the months ahead. The current P/E looks very undemanding (even in today's sluggish UK market) and the yield is decent.

The main thing I'm still keen to know is how profits came in, given the relatively late pledge book growth. Ultimately, this will boost the bottom line anyway. It's just how much fell into the FY just gone and how much is still to come.

Markets seem unusually wary of looking ahead at the moment. So I'm hoping for something significantly better than flattish profits for last year (notwithstanding an improved outlook for the current year, given the boosted pledge book).

I'd also like to see more share buys from the BOD and have raised this in previous results webinars. I'll be making the same point this year if nothing's changed.

Of course, the one other thing changing soon is H&T's year end date (30 Sept rather than 31 Dec). For the current FY, it'll publish results for the 12 months to 31 December 2024 in March as normal. Simultaneously, it'll publish unaudited comparatives for the 12 months to 30 September 2024 to establish a base for the new accounting reference dates.

For the following year - being the first FY with the new YE date - statutory audited results covering the nine-month period to 30 September 2025 will be published in January 2026.

At least this seems transparent, simply aiming to smooth out H1 v H2 seasonality. Rather than an attempt to move the goalposts in some smoke & mirrors cover up!

Bendipa1 - Sorry, I should have been clearer! I was referring specifically to H&T’s Christmas 2023 retail sales, which came in below forecast.

Hardboy - thanks for your comments. I completely agree the higher than expected pledge book growth is a positive, longer term. My reason for listing it under the negatives is that it won’t significantly boost profit for the FY just ended. Which probably helps explain today’s relatively muted SP response, with some investors being unwilling to look much beyond the end of their noses!

The impact of NI & minimum wage increases was partly quantified in today’s TU. But the percentages you quote would only apply if the company took no steps to mitigate. Which I’m sure won’t be the case. Guess we’ll just have to wait for a bit more meat on the bones there.

"I'm relieved there were no major unexpected downturns - unlike last year "

Downturn? Turnover - 2023, £220.78m; 2022, £173.94m. EPS - 2023, 48.49p; 2022, 37.15p. Operating Cashflow - 2023, £2.57m; 2022 -£11.02m.

How does that equate to a 'downturn', or am I missing something? tinyurl.com/5n6vppc5

My Lord,

Excellent posts.

You show this as a negative: "Most pledge book growth came late, so the benefits will mainly accrue next FY" I understand what you mean when people just look at reported figures; but the year end is an arbitrary date, income comes when it comes, so it's not a negative, more a positive which we hope will continue; but of which we need to be aware when reading the finals.

More of concern to me is the NI increase. We knew it was going to have a big effect, now it's been quantified - about 1% of turnover. about 7.5% of profit.

Thank you for your detailed reply to my earlier question.

Sheffieldowls - tricky one, as I don't hold Ramsdens (or follow it as closely as H&T).

At today's prices, over the past 1 & 5 years RFX has outperformed H&T. That said, H&T is currently yielding slightly more, but 'twasn't ever thus.

The reason I went for H&T is that it's the UK's clear market leader. So, I figured, more likely to benefit from economies of scale & greater brand recognition. There has been significant past attrition & consolidation in this sector, so size matters to an extent - at least in terms of likely long term company security.

Given the UK's current economic backdrop, I imagine either company would be a decent place for you to reinvest your divi. But that's just my opinion & shouldn't be taken as firm advice! RFX isn't far off its one year high. H&T is closer to its one year low.

So if you think H&T is due an upwards re-rate following today's TU, I'd go for that. But if you believe RFX will continue to outperform, reinvest your divi there. In your case, the one other reason you might possibly favour H&T over RFX is to diversify slightly, albeit in the same sector. Bit rambling, but I hope this helps.

Whatever you decide, the one thing I'd stress is that neither is a "tuck away & forget" type of share. I've traded H&T several times over the years & have mostly averaged down with success. So you do have to keep an eye on things & act if the SP feels grossly over- or undervalued at any given time. Good luck!

Hardboy - you're welcome. Here's hoping January's TU doesn't spring any nasty surprises on us this time.

To me, the current SP almost assumes that it will, as it's a very undemanding valuation at the moment. So we could see a fairly rapid upwards re-rate assuming all is well.

That said. we are talking AIM here. So anything's possible!

Many thanks for your replies Lord.

As to extra costs from the budget, presumably this will be addressed in next January's TU or March's results.

Don't think they employed many on minimum wage, but there could still be a knock-on effect higher up.

I suspect though that businesses will honour their minimum wage obligations by narrowing the pay gap with those higher up the chain. In other words, they'll mostly be clobbered if they're currently employing lots of staff on minimum wage, which H&T isn't.

The employer NICs increase to 15% will undoubtedly have an impact. Hopefully they'll adjust prices/loan rates/staff numbers to offset at least some of this.

The NI secondary threshold reduction to £5k might also have some impact, if they employ any highly temporary part time staff. This may be the case - especially around the peak Christmas period - but I doubt it would apply to very many.

Hardboy - "For the current financial year, the Group will publish audited results for the 12-month period to 31 December 2024 in March 2025, as normal. Simultaneously, the Group will publish unaudited comparative results for the twelve months to 30 September 2024 to establish the base for the new accounting reference dates. "

If they are changing their year end to September, then presumably we should get a 9 month finals results out fairly soon. Anyone know when this will be?

Also have we had any information on the cost of the budget to the business?

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1054482/h-t-group-discusses-solid-first-half-growth-icymi-1054482.html

H&T Group CEO, Chris Gillespie and CFO, Diane Giddy present the group’s results for the six months ended 30 June 2024, followed by Q&A.

Watch the video here: https://www.piworld.co.uk/company-videos/ht-group-hat-half-year-results-presentation-august-2024/

Or listen to the podcast here: https://piworld.podbean.com/e/ht-group-hat-half-year-results-presentation-august-2024/