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Started: 5percent, 6 Apr 2024 15:12
Last post: 5percent, 6 Apr 2024 15:12
Wow and he makes money that way ?
Started: TopCatz, 5 Apr 2024 08:37
Last post: TopCatz, 5 Apr 2024 19:36
Edit *their* before the grammar police turn up
Risks: H&T’s customers are cash-constrained. Its money laundering, stolen goods risk and other regulatory controls are appropriate to pawnbroking. We believe sentiment to the industry is a specific risk, which needs careful communication to overcome. Inflation risk to the cost base is also a specific short-term consideration.
What I mean by dirty is most of what's written above, which is straight off the report. Careful communication is using hardman reports to boost credibility for example. Add to that they re staff are not exactly going to be motivated. Can't have been paying them much if they're siting the minimum wage as a cost pressure.
The fact that most of it's competitors are out of business is not necessarily a good thing I'd say.
That's all. I'll get back in my box
The one posted yesterday Hardboy 4/4, but I ve had a look through previous RNS and they seem to use Hardman reports to bolster credibility.
Pawn broking is pretty dirty whatever way you look at it. Didn't say they don't know what they're doing but I wouldn't say I trust them and they look hell bent on world domination and increasing their gearing ratios but not necessarily the right time imho.
Just a comment, probably misplaced but I say it as i see it right or wrong.
Never mind me and have a good weekend
Hardboy - I presume you're either addressing TopCatz or 5percent, as they're the two main posters I filtered some time ago on here.
If so, up to you obviously but I really wouldn't bother if I were you. They both have clear agendas and - as you've probably already surmised - their posts are neither reasoned, consistent or informative.
By way of contrast, I find your posts both interesting & balanced, as I hope you do mine!
What RNS are you referring to?
They increased their ov3erdraught limit last summer & taken out a new loan in the last 2 months. If you are expecting some other kind of increase in their funds in the short term, you are basically saying the BoD don't know what they are doing.
Last post: 5percent, 28 Mar 2024 07:43
It's a matter of trusting people. When it comes to directors, zero trust is appropriate. Best to draw your own conclusions about the business etc. Example # GEC was a mainstay of industry under Weinstock. New CE, wow we will buy US comms company ; 6 months later discover revenue non existent, GEC goes bust due to debts to buy US, Shareholders lose everything. And this was a top UK company with a new wizz kid CE.
Last post: Hardboy, 27 Mar 2024 17:53
If you want to know where a business is going to have to listen to the people who know that business, their markets and their strategy. Crunching numbers is fine if the business does not change, their products and services do not change, market conditions do not change, and the economy does not change.
I was replying to the previous post, where somebody has posted a podcast , and somewhat similar to the 'bullish statements' refered to below. All this is to persuade investors. So if you listen to the pope long enough you will become Catholic. My point is that it is better to ignore the verbiage and do your own analysis of future discounted cash flow if you want to have any idea if the share price is appropriate.
Started: TopCatz, 20 Mar 2024 11:49
Last post: pedro61, 21 Mar 2024 11:01
Plainly undervalued......Bullish statements from the company regarding prospects and expansion at a discounted price....It will not last long...set for a big rerate in my opinion....a very big rerate is totally justified by all the facts...
Pretty much to script here. A fluffy spike with not enough substance to get through what's becoming quite a strong overhead resistance at around 395. It faked it for a bit but you see that all the time
Minimum wage requirements as from 1st April too so going forward there will be a headwind. Maybe some have cashed in here ?
I've had a small punt with a target of 275 and a stop at 420p. Figures look alright, I can't deny hence a smallish trade..Just something that doesn't quite seem right and my overriding view that an election or an announcement of an election will signal alarm bells.
GLA
Last post: lordloadsoflolly, 19 Mar 2024 18:46
Hardboy - I really wouldn’t bother trying to reason with him/her, if I were you!
5% as you're not replying to someone else's post, and don't say who you are addressing, apologising for being rude is meaningless as no one knows who you are talking to.
If you base your decisions on what the director said, you are living in a fantasy world.
Try answering this question
If you had no idea what the share price was, and somebody asked you whait it should be, you would have no idea whatsoever.
Why ? Because you are not inputting the balance sheet, p and l and forecasts into a model and working out the discounted cash flow and other parameters.
Why not admit you have not a clue, instead of pretending you are a director.
Sorroy i am indeed being a bit rude. But I feel strongly you are wasting your time and deluding yourselves/
Started: piworld, 18 Mar 2024 16:24
Last post: piworld, 18 Mar 2024 16:24
H&T Group CEO, Chris Gillespie and CFO, Diane Giddy present full year results for the for the twelve months ended 31 December 2023, followed by Q&A.
Watch the video here: https://www.piworld.co.uk/company-videos/ht-group-hat-fy23-results-presentation-march-2024/
Or listen to the podcast here: https://piworld.podbean.com/e/ht-group-hat-fy23-results-presentation-march-2024/
Started: Laughton, 18 Mar 2024 12:43
Last post: lordloadsoflolly, 18 Mar 2024 14:24
Laughton - positive yes. But that data relates to the period H&T has already reported on.
I’d argue it’s more what happens THIS year that’ll influence H&T’s share price going forward. Whilst I suspect the economy will pick up slightly, I’m doubtful of any significant improvement. So the environment for H&T should stay fairly benign IMHO.
Outstanding debt on UK credit cards jumped nearly 10 per cent last year, according to new data, as households turned to borrowing amid inflationary pressures and the cost-of-living crisis.
Credit card debt rose 9.7 per cent in the 12 months to December last year, figures from banking trade body UK Finance showed.
Surely a positive for H&T.
Put it this way : there are a million investments in the world - why choose one where there is 'doubt' about what a director said or didn't say about management or so-called 'consultants' ?
And if you think he deliberately avoided saying something that reasonably should have been said, it is time to run
Last post: 5percent, 16 Mar 2024 07:54
'And Gillespie avoided saying how long Maxcroft's husband & wife owners would stay on as consultants. But for now, I'm happy to give them the benefit of the doubt,'
What do you mean ? What is the risk ? Is there a hint of dodgy practice ? I certainly dont want relatives vaguely floating in and out. Problematic for management competence, but more importantly, dodgy practices.
Last post: 5percent, 16 Mar 2024 05:13
Anyhow I assume we are all happy bunnies as sp has done good. Here's to recession and everybody flogging family heirlooms. Might pay for my holiday. See you on the beach
Started: lordloadsoflolly, 15 Mar 2024 14:26
Last post: lordloadsoflolly, 15 Mar 2024 14:26
I found this presentation useful.
Also, reassuring to know they don't just make the questions up, as mine (about progressive dividend policy) was amongst the ones asked.
There clearly remains a bit of investor disquiet about H&T's latest acquisition. But they were at pains to reassure us it met all their financial criteria & should bring valuable experience on commercial divergence, which they can then roll out to other stores. As well as its valuable pledgebook, Maxcroft has clearly been successful with forex sales, where H&T has experienced slower than anticipated growth recently. So they may be able to help boost this side of the business. Jury's out I guess. And Gillespie avoided saying how long Maxcroft's husband & wife owners would stay on as consultants. But for now, I'm happy to give them the benefit of the doubt, as H&T's management has generally been conservative & sound in the past.
Interesting they could envisage the store estate rising to 350 in the medium term, albeit probably "only" adding 8-12 units this FY. Also, good news that after a strong January, the first half of March has been similarly robust.
Last post: 5percent, 15 Mar 2024 12:04
I keep getting accused of having a secret agenda. I think i should clarify i don't really care much about HAT, even tho i have a few shares. Essentially, i am trying to establish whether in holding a specific share, things are loaded against you. I am inclined to buy ETFs rather than individual shares, especially having seen most of the comments here, which to me have no logic / analytical basis , and to me show people are speculating
Started: 5percent, 15 Mar 2024 11:32
Last post: 5percent, 15 Mar 2024 11:32
En passant, I note that at 11 30 the price has spiked 3.3% , yet I thought the presentation is at 12 00. So what is going on ? Maybe presentation earlier, but not reported yet - I have carefully checked the internet. Of is it insider trading, or a leak ? Sad that retail investors are effectively getting ripped off , but I think that is the situation.
Started: 5percent, 14 Mar 2024 15:04
Last post: 5percent, 14 Mar 2024 15:04
Thanks. I probably need to think about it. I still don't really see why there are not hedge funds and city traders with mega computers who can feed the results into a model in 30 minutes, and are then prepared to buy up to a certain price, so that it is all settled in one day. But if you are saying this is not the case and it takes days or weeks for brokers and professionals to come to a conclusion, then I accept your explanation. Anyhow I gather some presentation tomorrow so interesting to see if that changes things. Of course it is not purely numbers it is confidence in management and so forth. But I would have thought a good computer model could factorise that in. Anyhow if AI hits, presumably things are gonna change
Last post: Hardboy, 14 Mar 2024 14:07
5% - another factor in price movements is that more and lore people use technical analysis to trade (including professional investors). Personally analysing charts for me can only tell you where you've come from, but as more and more people use it, there can be a self prophesying success to it. anyway the point I'm tying to make is if people invest in momentum, the chart has got to start going up before these investors invest. So people like me read the results, and invest on my interpretation of them. If the results are good folk like me hop in, the share price starts to go up, some people take a profit, the price pauses, brokers & journalists have their say, if positive, people take note and invest and the share price goes up, then the technical traders see a trend and hop in too.
That's all very simplistic, but hopefully it explains why it can take days or even weeks for the share price to react to positive news.
Thanks about brokers. Yes I can't see anybody buying simply because a broker says 'buy'. It needs an explanation according to his model of what the price should be.
Tradeable - i thought about it - I think it means there is a mean or avergae price somebody has calculated. The stock is small and seldom traded, so the price paid is often way out from the mean or average. So it is possible for somebody to buy when it is inexplicably and meaninglessly low, and vice versa. The theory, anyway.
I suppose I do similar but with ETFs. For example, Japanese bonds are at a multi year low, for no reason except faffing around by the central bank. It seems obvious they will rise over time ( in my view ) . But it is not some massively intelligent analysis of what a japanerse bond is worth, it is essentially a form of chartism.
Last post: Hardboy, 13 Mar 2024 23:34
No, Lord, I don't hold Ramsdens, and have never looked that closely at them. They had been on Business Live on Sky News a few weeks ago and were very bullish there. .
Thanks Hardboy
I take your point about dividends. However there’ll be some institutional & many private investors (myself included) who bought in partly for the decent yield. And whilst 13% growth isn’t to be sneezed at, it’s out of step with the annual increase in most of H&T’s other business metrics, notably EPS.
So not quite my definition of a progressive dividend policy - and a dangerous area to meddle with too much if you value shareholder loyalty.
Traditionally they’ve been pretty successful at putting capital to good use and I welcome the news of modest store increases & a significant estate refurb programme. The IT upgrades make eminent sense in theory (& so far so good), providing they deliver in practice without cost overruns.
I’m more sceptical about their acquisition of Maxcroft (or at least the price paid), even though diversification into short term small business lending makes sense. Time will tell I guess.
Out of interest, do you (or any other posters) also hold Ramsdens? They issued a fairly bullish update on 11 March, leading to a c. 10% up-rate. But it too remains around 15% below its recent share price peak.
Lord, good post, good analysis. I don't mind a small increase in dividend. They are investing heavily in their stores and pledge book, which should lead to bigger profits in the future. (I have argued, occasionally, that any company with debts should not pay dividends. Lending money to pay dividends is stupid, but of course it is not that simple.)
The main uncertainty is how effective this increased level of investment will be in increasing margins and profits. They are taking on more debt than they have traditionally held, so it had better be worth it.
Hardboy - a sense of relief seems to be the general market reaction to today's Prelimary Results.
It was certainly mine, as there were no new nasties I could see.
My main takeaways:
POSITIVES
* Recently increased loan interest rates should boost FY pawnbroking margin
* Retail prices have now been increased & margins are expected to improve in 2024
* Retail held up well through January & February (after a sticky December)
* Retail mix to shift slightly, from new (lower margin) to pre-owned (higher margin) jewellery, as the pledge book grows
* Stores acquired/opened in the last 3 -4 years all trading at/above original forecast level
* ROE up 25% YOY & targeted to increase a further 25% or so in the medium term (from 12.4% to mid teens %)
* Store numbers likely to grow 4%-5% annually
NEGATIVES
* Employee costs will continue to rise above the headline inflation rate in 2024
* Relatively modest dividend growth for 2023 of +13%, from 15p to 17p
* Continued roll out of IT upgrades. Whilst they've integrated smoothly so far, these sort of projects have a nasty habit of imploding &/or generating significant cost overruns
Just had a quick skip through them, so may have missed things, but they look good.
Income up 13%, Operating Profit up 43%, Dividend up 13%, Pledge Book up 28%, FX income up 11%, EPS up 31%, NAV up 8%, Return on equity up, on line sales up 65%.
Retail was only up 8%, and margins reduced, so probably the main semi-cloud. But it sounds like this has picked up a bit since new year, and a lot of businesses would be happy with 8% growth in sales.
Obviously the spend on new stores and refurbishments is draining resources, but the indications are that this will pay healthily in the future. With a debt to profit ratio of around 1 it is still manageable by most theories.
Surely this will push the share price up. EPS of 48.5. For a company growing sales & profits well into double figures to have a PE of under 10 is ridiculous. To have a yield of around 5% when committed to a cover of 2+ is also very cheap.
Let's see what Mr market thinks (I'm sure he loves disagreeing with me just to upset me!)
Last post: Hardboy, 13 Mar 2024 23:31
5% - I've never found a good sauce for all broker recommendations on a share. Yahoo gives a summary of how many brokers say, Buy, positive, neutral, negative, sell. Sharecast gives some too. But I can't really help there. I'm sure there is one.
Hardboy : You say professionals 'give their verdict'. So is there a easy source on the internet of all broker's recommendations ? You seem to be suggesting these are visible after a few days. Where ? Or do you just mean that following the trades you can see bigger trades that denote they are buying ? Is it possible to detect WHO is buying ? In terms of institutions. I realise us retail investors can not be identified.
Last post: 5percent, 13 Mar 2024 15:45
Somebody said this is eminently tradeable. I think reference charts. Well the charts were terrible, as he agreed. Then 14 percent rise in 2 days. I do not really know whether his idea of tradeable was purely on charts or more complex. If he cares to explain what he means by tradeable I would be interested
Anyhow another 4 percent this morning so infers takes time for reaction. That infers a retail investor has an opportunity on day 1. But not convinced a retail investor can analyse a p and l and balance sheet and understand it in one day. In short, I think there is no trading opportunity. Only the long term view counts
Last post: Hardboy, 12 Mar 2024 22:43
5% - if you are seriously asking why on good news a share price does not zoom up and stay there, rather than inching up gradually. There are all sorts of reasons. The share price goes up when more people want to buy at the price than sell. Once a share price goes up there are some people who will sell to make a quick profit, bringing the price down. Professional analysts have a look at the announcement and give their verdict, That come a day or more later. Some punters wait for brokers' to say buy before they buy. Professional investors take longer over decisions.
And of course Keynes said, "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Because the markets are dysfunctional. HAT isn't a meme stock so gets ignored, leaving the profiting to larger buyers who wait for the froth to dissipate.
whrewas stupid shares like HE1 bounce up and down and attracts day traders.
only have to look at SYNT, whose results were craap and they're up 25%.
HAT just isn't a knee jerk share... but it'll rise, slowly. you can already see day traders jumped in and then jumped out again because it didn't do 25% in the first 5 minutes!
Look, it is a serious question. And I expect a serious answer, not a load of xxxx. ( not sure i will get it ) I have noticed that a 'good' share will increase on a steady gradient, not in steps ( up or down ) when news is released. So there must be some type of 'delayed reaction', it is not instant. This could be due to the big boys trying to buy in, but discreetly in small packets, as they slowly realise what it all means. Maybe it is that the computers in the city take time to decide what the results mean.
I can understand it might take one day for the results to be analysed, but not why the share should , as the guy below infers' soar past 400' over a few months. Why not today ? Nothing will have changed and there will be no news. Does it just take time for the pension funds etc to rebalance their books to favour , say, this share ?
Don't remind me
I'm mindin' my own damn business
Don't try to find me
I'm better left alone than in this
It doesn't surprise me
Do you really think that I could care
If you really don't like me?
Find somebody else
It could be anyone else out there
Don't fret
I don't ever wanna see you
And I never wanna miss you again
One thing
When you're angry, you're a jerk
And then you treat me like I'm worth nothin'
Don't fret
Started: 5percent, 12 Mar 2024 12:22
Last post: lordloadsoflolly, 12 Mar 2024 12:36
5percent - filtered.
Others might do the same after running through your posts on H&T. To me, they smack of someone with a clear agenda.
Try not to be a rude boy
Last post: 5percent, 12 Mar 2024 12:33
Increase increased from 5% to 10% in 4 hours. Suggests to me that it takes time, a few hours, for the news to be assessed.