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Schroders have increased their internal valuation of Revolut to 25.7bn dollars. So not so far off the 33bn now and a lot more than MV valued it so some addition to NAV maybe coming there.
Scary times to invest to be sure. Silly price though to compensate for risk.
1/3rd of average broker 12 month guidance. Sweet. Odds of at least doubling in 12 months probably better than 50%.
Now after this shooting gallery between Iran and Israel we can add WW3 to the ever lengthening list of black swans that could induce the whole market to dive. I’m grateful to the Iranians to not retaliate like for like after the Israeli bombing of their embassy in Damascus. That would have opened up the gates to hell.
What they did was a well signaled “attack” with high expectations of them being shot down before any real damage was done -due to the advanced notice. It was a clever show of force without much in the way of loss of life or damages. So most nations urging Israel to “take the win” and not escalate further. Who knows what crazy Netanyahu will do but for now deescalating. Some real lunatics in his cabinet urging all out war with Iran. They should be in jail and not in cabinet of a nation with nuclear weapons making these type of decisions of war an peace. Way of the world I suppose.
Still so fragile and so easy for a miscalculation to occur. UK was involved in the shooting display, the biggest since the Falklands war for us.
I expect we might go up this week on a relief rally that all out war was avoided -at least for now.
EyesOfBlue, the first advantage of having built up a portfolio was to reach the point where it made sense to have it managed on a discretionary basis which I did in 2008. The second is that all the lessons learned the hard way are not generally repeated and I am concentrate in building up investments for my children.
When I started my first investment back in 1977, I forced myself to save £15 each month from my salary and topped things up with bonuses, Christmas and birthday money. In those days, the minimum practical amount I would invest was £500 and bargains were executed through my bank in a face to face meeting. As my salary increased, I continued to save the same percentage of pay - the big transformation was made with the proliferation of online dealing.
Nowadays, although my salary has remained the same for the last 10 years at a pitiful £26,000, I can and do save £600 each month for a "rainy day". £300 is for my wife and I, £100 invested for my 2 sons (aged 30 and 28 and started when they were aged 16) and £200 into a trust that I setup in 2015 to mitigate IHT.
The discretionary accounts were structured for capital growth and have done very well indeed. Capital under investment is now growing at almost 6x salary with dividends thrown off equivalent to 25% salary. At the point when I retire, I shall still target capital growth but draw between 2% and 3% from capital to have a very comfortable retirement. After all, a ski holiday in the winter, 2 horses in livery and a love of fine art tends to come with a hefty price tag. We started to draw from these last year following a substantial inheritance as a generation closed and I now head our family tribe.
That’s funny Alas, the meagre £30 a month I put into my teenager’s SIPP is also dripping into GROW. Set up for life aren’t they? 🤨
Can we at least beat a global market index? Any mushroom can just grow that way.
For me over the last 8 years the answer is no but I lie in hope of a quick fix via a bounce back of GROW to previous high and beyond within 3 years. With my mushroom strategy luck.
We are all mushrooms here Wild, unless you have a particular steer from those Hedge Fund mates of yours to share.
Great i love contrarian postings.
you never know but i think we are on the cusp of a sustainably SP recovery not a new record breaking 8 year low. ive laid put my rational in many postings. good luck all. if you ate more that 50% confident of a new dip why not short snd make money off that?
Way too soon to buy, i expect it to go below 200 in the short term
I highly doubt we will be anything near this low level next year. unique opportunity to level down for me.
I also have a small holding in Tern, which is also way down on my entry price.
Tern seems to be sparking up with some good news. Up 100% in a couple of weeks (from ATL).
I'd love to see GROW do the same.
For younger son in his SIPP
It's aggressive for a low volume share. Other sellers were a bit more sensitive.
Additionally they did not sell aggressively, they went from 6.9M shares to 4.9M shares. 2m shares at £2odd is nothing to AVI, couple of million quid. Its peanuts, means nothing. AVI has a market cap of £1bn. Im sure Bauemfreund's PA is authorised to handle decesions of that size.
Yes 4.9M shares is 2.6% as of their last report and as you say they are under 3% so NOBODY knows until the AVI semi is released where they are now. YOU SAID, they are "all out, confirmed by recent RNS". The recent report says they are at 2.6%. It does NOT SAY they are out. You dont know and I dont know what they did since then. As I said, stop guessing and spreading guesses as facts, deal in facts. The last fact is 4.7m shares or 2.6%, where they have gone from there is maybe done nothing since or are somewhere between 0 and 2.999%. NOBODY knows.
They went under 3% so don't need to report further sales. They sold down very aggressively to get down below 3%.
Rubbish, last report from AVI was 6/3/24 4.9m shares. FACT, there is no debate about that. You are just making rubbish up.
AVI built up a position when the SP dipped below 200. It felt like a show of confidence at the time.
They are all out confirmed by a recent RNS
Https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/softbank-considers-investment-or-partnership-with-openai-ft-1.1972354
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/07/pensions-giant-create-uk-superfund-boost-jeremy-hunt/
Medium term we are in good shape. GROW as a well diversified trust in unlisted growth companies in the tech sector by geography, sector and pipeline position is in pole position to benefit. Certainly a good choice for 1/3rd of my ISA and very likely to significantly outperform the market over the next 20 years.
Short term who knows. I think we already have plenty of evidence we should be at at an SP of 2/3rds NAV/share not 1/3rd with great prospects to go up sharply from 2/3rds as a base. However that evidence has been there for a year so maybe massive underpricing can last a year longer?? We shall see.
Https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/weekend-analysis-private-equity-fundraising-funds-return
No evidence at all of a declining market so our organic sales growth within our portfolio companies should result in NAV/share upgrades. I hope enough to overwhelm the mild 2’nd half dilution and first half losses.
There was a small mention in this weeks copy of Investors Chronicle. In the main the article (P32) concentrates on Chrysalis which having had a torrid 5 years seems to have tarnished others with distrust of valuations. And, in terms of discount GROW receives a mention as it is at a nearly 70% discount.
The "silver lining" that, for my money is really what the article should be about but is rather buried, is that investors MUST monitor the holdings in such portfolio for signs of progress...... and by implication (my words) be prepared to take advantage of any discount.
Anyway, the article has rather more focus on the issues in Chrysalis, though, with the substitution of names and holdings, much can be applied to GROW as it does with CHRY.
Wish we had a firm announced sale of graphcore to boost nav/share.
wide range of possible results from modest additional nav/share decreases to modest nav/share increases in spite of modest dilution. at least a 150m nav range of possibility on valuation of whole portfolio -a range that undermines market confidence to be sure.
just need to be patient. at an ago i once asked the q why not more share specific information and reply was that core holdings prohibit it, result is worst of all worlds where in a tight market worst assumed without any of us having the information needed to decisively counter invest. all a big of a stumble in the dark
AVI did not get out at a profit. They are nursing a loss which the accounts clearly show. Plus they are not out
Fir me the low do has 4 main explanations:
1) we were well overpriced between launch in 2016 and 2022 and are correcting. nav in 20016 to 2020 was overstated.
2) all the exits (nearly half a billion) in 2021 2022 have been wasted when reinvested with little retained value plus test of portfolio doing poorly.
3) we have serious trouble in a majority of the core portfolio and the seed funds, trouble not yet talked about in public realm.
or 5
4) temporary irrational anxiety that will pass