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News out today. A satisfactory read.
Investors these days (compared with the late 1970's) have the advantage of an almost bewildering array of tools and information that allows financial decisions to be made. Although I am not a fan of charts except as a very broad indicator, it does have relevance that should not, IMO, be ignored.
For GROW, the chart that I like is the 10 year one and, to my interpretation, the share price is beginning to show the hint of an uptick and the point at which investors are starting to hoover up the shares. Of course, buying pressure has only a small influence on the share price which tends not to last very long. Market Capital increases will only be seen with improvement in disposals and re-investment in new enterprise.
As ever, investors should undertake their own research but from my perspective, this has all the hallmarks of being a good time to build a decent holding as equities tend to do well with the tailwind of falling interest rates. there are mutterings that the ECB is hoping to lower rates in May and it certainly won't do the long suffering consumer any harm if the Band of England shave a few points off rates in May/June and further cuts in August and November.
I’ve not done a formal statistical correlation but we move with certain indicators more than others, but it does seem to shift.
Biggest seems to be interest rates and US rates more influence than UK for whatever reason.
Second biggest indicator is Tech 100 US which we track a lot of the time but not now.
Third is FTSE 250.
Forth is geopolitical risk linked to commodity prices in turn linked to inflation and in turn linked to interest rates.
Forth is
Steph, I think that the key to share price growth for this IT is through change to base interest rates.
We do know that rising interest rates the world over are headwinds for equities which are more easily absorbed by companies with wide moats and as the BoE might start to reduce interest rates in May, or more probably, June, this will filter to equity markets. FTSE has recognised this and has reacted and rises in valuations for the smaller markets, and in particular, unlisted companies SHOULD follow, albeit with some lag.
In the same way that the press is no longer reporting a cost of living crisis, different crisis will grab headlines.
"Underlying Gross Portfolio fair value (unaudited) stabilized and broadly flat for the year at constant currency, reflecting a modest increase in the like-for-like portfolio in the second half and positive contribution from the two acquisitions (first half: 3.7% decrease, second half: 4.2% increase at constant currency)."
That is good news buried under the NAV/share decrease attributable to the "one off " dilution and currencies movements.
Our core portfolio is finally growing a bit in NAV and this should accelerate as the 63% revenue increase's kick in for any revenue multiplier valuations. As the market continues to stabilize we should have some late rounds and IPO's that confirm our NAV calculations nicely.
I foresee NAV/share 15 to 20% higher by March 31 2025 with good further prospects to keep that pace or better it. With that our steep discount to NAV/share should be over. What SP relationship to NAV/share we have after that covers a range. Once the market accepts 15% to 20% growth of portfolio value as a credible sustainable rate SP should fluctuate between 80% of NAV/share and 130% depending on general market conditions. That is broadly our history.
I do think there will be some bounce back (in addition to organic growth of 15% to 20%) on our NAV/share as the downgrades were not based on portfolio failure but subjective views of valuations in the absence of hard market testing via funding rounds or IPO. A funding round valuation is much more solid than a revenue comparable and can take into account IP and niche factors. Graphcore is worthless using a revenue multiplier but clearly still has value. Ditto for many others. The higher the IP the greater the lag in NAV is revenue multipliers are the only key.
Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/private-equity-valautions-holding-firm-130354578.html
With the FTSE exploring new highs this week, a few weeks behind USA, investor sentiment is improving and the share price has perked up for GROW. I've now broken even on my investments and, as finances permit will look to average my holding up over the next few months.
The practice of selling short has never appealed to me since, by its underlying limited return it cannot be considered anything other than speculation. GROW has produced new information this week which will allow investors to compare the formal numbers more accurately.
I remain bullish on GROW and although my holding(s) are underwater finacially, I am more persuaded to buy rather than sell shares in GROW at the moment.
The preliminay unaudited results state no downgrade of NAV/share for portfolio. That will be in the audited finals.
Some retrace of NAV/share due to dilution in raising the 55m below NAV/share and 19m unfavorable currency movement (random). Those wil be considered one offs.
You are braver than I to try to judge short term movements. In any case you should now short them according to your analysis. Good luck. I’m long for sure and optimistic of SP increases on final results.
According to the analysts the final year results in June will show a massive loss, so downside is more likely in the short term.
Bought loads at 218, started selling yesterday and just sold my last lot. I believe we will see 200p again in the coming weeks.
If it had not been for the dilution and the 19m currency movement in the wrong direction we would have had a small increase in NAV/share from September. I’m calling bottom on NAV/share downgrades. Now organic growth of portfolio booming along at 63% revenue growth will start to kick in going forward.
Step aboard before train leaves the station.
I am a little more comfortable with the NAV as they have been probably supported in the context of a possible Fca review so audit and board would be on notice. However actual accounts may have to flag up post balance date events, so may not read as solid as this update with Graphcore bound to get a mention.
Mixed but overall positive -especially forward guidance for 2025.
63% revenue growth of core portfolio will finally NAV/share in coming year.
90% of companies have runway s of over 12 months and 50% a remarkable 24 months.
Basically saying NAV/share downgrades over at 661. Should be growth from her forward -maybe in part proportional to sales growth. No reason for 2.42 SP. Should now be 75%-80% of NAV/share.
NAV/share back to 2021 results. 3 years of no growth. That is sufficient.
PS The sp now is 2.5% higher than when I bought the share earlier this morning...
Thanks for the (sarcastic) comment.
'Buy at the top'... this sp is still very low compared to what it has been (even in recent times).
Who can time the market:? (as the truism goes). I am just pleased to be invested here again - and if took some good company guidance for me to do so, so be it.
Always good to wait and buy at the top! Any other useful info to share?
I had debated re-buying MV shares a couple of days ago. I didn't then - unfortunately!
However, after new Outlook announcement this morning, I have now gone ahead and re-bought a fair number of shares.
There was so much relentless negativity (from some on here) about MV's prospects - and with ever-seeming diminishing stock price - that is why I hadn't rebought recently - until just now.
But today (with company announcement) I felt confident enough to rebuy.
Martin Davis, Chief Executive Officer of Molten Ventures, commented:
“We are grateful to all our investors who supported us through the period, most notably with our fundraise and with the addition of the Forward Partners portfolio. With £123 million of cash resources across PLC, the managed EIS/VCT funds, as well as a £60 million undrawn debt facility and a stable and enhanced platform, we are in a strong position to deploy capital selectively to maximise returns for our investors in a stabilising but still challenging environment for high-growth companies. Our portfolio remains in good health, and we expect to see a step up in realisations in the current financial year, with a number of potential exit processes ongoing across our portfolio.”
Gettingthere67, corrections are inevitable and healthy. That the DOW and NASDAQ have been breaching all time highs is both worrysome and encouraging in equal measure.
Part of the fall was in response to the potential for the Middle East skirmish to escalate but a far greater part is that the FED is unlikely to lower interest rates in early course. Some commentators are suggesting December. The UK also seems to have cooled on interest rates and a May cut seems increasingly fragile.
These are powerful headwinds for substantial companies and are really troubling for smaller ones.~
We have at the moment a UK Government on its last legs where local elections in May might give some flavour of the sort of bloody nose that might be expected in a General Election. I've always done better with Labour in office than I have with a Conservative administration.
This is not the place to discuss politics, except as it applies to equities. Sunak was a better Chancellor than he is as PM and frankly Coco the clown would have been better than Kwartang, hence we have Hunt at the tiller.
I should just add that I think - and hope - many if not most of these US tech stocks should recover soon - as their fundamentals are sound (and as long their next ERs - which are soon - will be good or at least OK).
Yesterday was a very negative day for US tech stocks.
I had only a relatively small holding left in SMCI - but the sp went down by over 23%.
I no longer hold any NVDA - but its sp went down 10%, and ARM Holdings (based here in the UK) shares went down almost 17%. A huge correction for these tech stocks.
Whether they will recover soon - or continue falling - I don't know. And the repercussions for the rest of the market - and shares such as MV - seem uncertain for now.
I wrote: "US tech stocks - whose sp rose a good deal in the last two months."
That should read: "US tech stocks - whose sp rose a good deal in the last four months."
I had great hopes for MV sp - but it has been disappointing. I am no longer invested here - but am thinking whether this might be a good time to invest again.
I am learning it's best not to be too wedded to any particular stock. I did well with investments in US tech stocks - whose sp rose a good deal in the last two months (though there has been a significant recent pullback) - shares such as SMCI, Dell, Oracle, even (at one point) SOUN - and (only partly AI-related) HIMS, the latter a company with great potential IMO.
I now only have about a quarter invested in these stocks as I did about say four weeks ago (when they were at a peak) - but I stayed invested to this extent as I still want to have some 'skin in the game', so to speak. By not selling all say a month ago, I have probably lost about 15% or so of my total recent gains - but that feels fairly OK.
I did keep investing in MV - but sold each time as sp fell a lot - then investing proceeds in these US stocks, which, as it turned out, did do well. I'm wondering now whether to invest again in MV - the sp does seem cheap (or at least low) right now...
I wrote: "US tech stocks - whose sp rose a good deal in the last two months."
That should read: "US tech stocks - whose sp rose a good deal in the last four months."
I had great hopes for MV sp - but it has been disappointing. I am no longer invested here - but am thinking whether this might be a good time to invest again.
I am learning it's best not to be too wedded to any particular stock. I did well with investments in US tech stocks - whose sp rose a good deal in the last two months (though there has been a significant recent pullback) - shares such as SMCI, Dell, Oracle, even (at one point) SOUN - and (only partly AI-related) HIMS, the latter a company with great potential IMO.
I now only have about a quarter invested in these stocks as I did about say four weeks ago (when they were at a peak) - but I stayed invested to this extent as I still want to have some 'skin in the game', so to speak. By not selling all say a month ago, I have probably lost about 15% or so of my total recent gains - but that feels fairly OK.
I did keep investing in MV - but sold each time as sp fell a lot - then investing proceeds in these US stocks, which, as it turned out, did do well. I'm wondering now whether to invest again in MV - the sp does seem cheap (or at least low) right now...