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Started: dab808, 30 Nov 2022 11:39
Last post: sotonspike, 2 Dec 2022 16:38
I sold up a while back kept 1 share just for sentimental reasons....
Today's RNS, 251.4p to be paid, anticipated on 3rd Jan.
Sotonspike, I believe you are partially correct. My understanding is that the original rns said that the 263p offer price would be reduced by the total amount of future dividends paid. Three, I believe so far, meaning that the actual sp of 250p is not too different from what will now be paid.
Think the divi's paid will be deducted from the 263p bid offer sure that's what it said in the RNS....
I sold up a while back (253p) and the price has been pretty flat since the last dividend payment. With the deal likely to go through in December where the price will be 263, at 250 there seems to be 4% as a gain on the table (after costs) to buy in here. Any thoughts on the gap and when it will close. Anyone else considering buying at this level to make what looks a guaranteed return? The risk I guess is that it does not happen but that seems remote. Any thoughts?
Started: Ecologist, 26 Aug 2022 12:17
Last post: sotonspike, 24 Sep 2022 07:55
bolland07 just a follow up.....Sold up during yesterdays bloodbath and brought into DEC right decision? Time will tell...Good luck in these troubled times....
Good question bolland07....i sold what i invested here and have kept profit just out of curiosity to see how things pan out...Don't think there be much chance of another bidder did think that myself when it was announced to be brought out ...loved this stock good dividend i actually voted against the sale one of the few.....
is there any point of holding any further? current market price is very close to what will be paid out when take over complete.
is there any chance of better offer from a competitor?
is everybody else holding?
Cheers Trek good insights as always will defo have a good look at PAY already hold AV and LGEN so not to keen on another insurer stock also hold BP am heavy here looking to off load when and if it gets to the £5 mark.....so don't want another oiler stock.....
I agree with DEC I have a significant % of my pf there as DEC is hedged to downside risks. I have posted lots there.
I also have a similar position in SEPL. They have so much cash and will imo be debt free soon. Don’t see their divi being cut at any oil price now. More likely to be increased.
Both those are quarterly
Also PHNX at 600p ish is good value at around 8.3%. Divi gone up every year for more than 5 years. Well covered and inflationary v low risk.
CAML will be debt free about now. Riskier as copper and zinc but divi well covered at +9%…
I like PAY but I am in lower. Still good quarterly yield if you can get in near 600p.
Ding bother with incomes from funds, ETF’s, trusts etc… the commission is cost prohibitive, not as flexible as well. Better off diy!
Reckon GLO would be 300p now if it wasn’t for these plonkers selling out cheap!
Usual caveats
Trek
Last post: Thrugelmir, 22 Aug 2022 16:32
Dividends may reduce the offer price
A big yes.
Holding on to these to the end.
Half Year results on the 10th August. Will there be a quarterly dividend I wonder ?
Started: TrekMadone, 20 May 2022 19:46
Last post: TrekMadone, 9 Jun 2022 15:19
All differing views help make a market.
I like quarterly payers as they tend to smooth out the divi, and often the SP doesn’t even discount it but those stocks are few.
I don’t like trusts, ETF’s etc as the costs eat into profit and I notice that the punters that push them on the likes of ii seldom account for the fees!
For bi-annually divi stocks it depends when you bought. Many have been flat at best over 5 years. Most have actually declined.
So if the charts are flat why keep your money invested for a whole year when it only needs to be in the market for two key periods of time.
You can buy ahead and time your exit after using the same cash to grab other divi’s through the year.
Also stocks are seasonal so why be in the whole summer when you can sell in March/April and buy back Aug for the majority of ftse100 interim divi’s you get the gist
That’s where my excel comes in.
With macro like it is, war, inflation, pandemics etc you don’t have to add in risk.
That said I trade higher risk AIM stocks in between.
I don’t trade everything some I hold a core and trade, some I just hold.
I certainly don’t buy the theory that time in the market is the best way!
But I do appreciate everyone’s circumstances and skills are different.
Good luck with your investments
Trek
Up to 2015 I used to take my dividends in cash and then look for opportunities elsewhere, however I then read the Intelligent investor by Benjamin Graham and changed to automatically reinvesting the dividends.
My ISA now consists 18 dividend paying shares, 14 of which are in the FTSE 100, I quite like waking up in the morning and there is more money in my ISA than when I went to bed followed by more shares in my stocks.
I am disappointed that GLO has been snapped up as it was a quarterly dividend payer, still I did make a realised profit of +49% in the 12 months I held them for. I sold out of GLO yesterday & bought into LGEN as I said I would in an earlier post, the reason being LGEN's price had dropped 8p from £2.64 to £2.56 so it wasn't worth waiting for another potential 4p divi from GLO. I still have the last GLO dividend to come on Friday which I will then reinvest in LGEN.
I can say in the last 6 years I have made more money sitting on my hands, drip feeding my existing equities and letting the dividend snowball effect take place than I ever did in the previous 10 years when I was stressing about daily price movements and the effect on my P&L.
Good luck all with investing your GLO cash!
Appreciate that trek . Thank you. Have a great evening .Sam
I always take cash for any divi. So if you sell you don’t have a small position.
With cash you can top up your divi if you wish to reinvest and pick your price.
That’s just my preference not necessarily the best for all as I am an active investor.
Good luck with your investments
Trek
Hi trek, would you take the dividend as cash or in extra shares ? I am down to a few thousand now but not quite sure what to do ? Most grateful .Sam ps loving phoenix !
Started: PTG777, 24 May 2022 09:42
Last post: PTG777, 24 May 2022 09:42
My first post on what was my favourite holding, though as many have mentioned over the last week such a shame coming to an end. So while I have taken the plunge on posting, thought I'd canvass opinion on investment approaches.
Firstly, I've been investing/trading(?) for about 18 months, and as others have said super appreciative of posts from Trek and many others on this forum/other boards for their insight and perspectives - thank you.
Moving on from GLO, as we have to, I'm curious what tools/set-ups others have to support their portfolios.
Me sharing (for what it's worth, probably more for newcomers) for the first six months was a lot of learning/trial and error though now after the last 12 months I'd summarise where I'm at, which is I use....
• iWeb - relatively low cost service, web based(no mobile app).... gives me access to the market.
• Fairly sophisticated Excel sheet (imv :-D) that uses Excel STOCK function to drag down data, alongside web site data lookups to pull info. on yields, dvd dates, prices etc....have a dozen tabs or so allowing to me create a personalised portfolio, to track buys, sells, dvds, watch lists, profit/loss, history, pivot tables etc....
• Read a few books along with lots of internet reading, e.g. Naked Trader, stockpedia
• I use dividendmax, marketscreener, dividenddata, Barclays technical analysis, company websites and of course LSE
• I don't pay for any subscription services, thinking/feeling I can get most of what I need in the public domain - but not sure if I'm missing out
• My portfolio is about 5-10% speculative (I'd be down if lost out, but thinking the potential upside is worth it) 40-45% growth/dividend and 50% dividend.
The above landed me on GLO so would be interested to hear what others do/their approaches.....
• Do you use a tailored spreadsheet or just rely on the dealers web site ?
• Do you use any paid for subscription services such as market screener, simply wall street.....whats so great about them, heard/read about Level II access ?
• Just starting to take a look at technical analysis charts.....mulling that over, any hints/tips re:Technical Analysis where to read up, other websites of interest - it looks like data overload where one could easily get lost?
Of course each to their own approach/personal choice, though be interested to see what others think if they want to share.
Thanks,
Paul
Hi Trek, greatly appreciated. At the moment I have kept half of my contour global and depending on events, may move it at some stage. Direct line a definite I think and and am now tracking its price. I have tended to buy and hold in the past but am being tempted more and more to deal more regularly when I think a share is near its high. The two investments I did make last week were into oncimmune holdings and i3 energy. June 1 st I am attending my first agm in ages for east imperial, a share I am well down on at the moment and if I am not happy with the agm will take the hit...... something I am loath to do. The US market is key for it now. Lets hope for another good week .... and a counter offer. By the way I agree with you so strongly about the need for a sovereign wealth fund. Unfortunately ALL our politicians are so short sighted though. Thank you once again. Back now to do some more research !
You pretty much can’t go wrong with the major insurers. Their tier 1 capital ratios give investors huge protection now and yes DLG is a good bet. I have traded them very successfully. Recently grabbed divi sold and bought back at 237. I will be out again at 260.
Not advice but I have a spreadsheet of high divi stocks and their xd dates/yield etc. I then use TA to buy ahead of the divi and to sell. Sometimes I sell half before and leave half other times I may collect the divi then sell when the SP recovers from the drop.
For bi-annual payers in this highly volatile market you don’t need to tie up all your cash waiting for the divi. You just need to be invested at the right times. If you look at the charts for ABDN, MNG, CSN, LGEN etc for 1 to 3 years you can clearly see that they are trading shares. To illustrate the difference look at the chart on AAF. That is an investors share to hold and hug with a steadily glidepath and increasing divi.
Insurers are more volatile than folk think and if you buy the top it’s a lower yield and you stare at red in your pf. Never be afraid to sell and buy cheaper or reduce and re buy like 50% at a time. It’s not for everyone as it is hard work but it’s an alternative to hold and hug which really is for trusts/funds and not always suitable for shares.
I made over 20% on MNG and am waiting for sub 200p to buy back in again. If it doesn’t happen there are always other opportunities. In hindsight with that one I should have held a marker from my low buy to build back up from. Always learning!
I have researched some of the closed ended funds recommended below. Some I have written off purely because the costs are so high. One was even 3.35% from memory!. There are a few that I will dig deeper later and will put them all on a spreadsheet so I can compare and scrape data easier. But that’s why I prefer shares, no management costs.
My dealing costs are only £3.99 a trade so I can move in and out pretty quickly. The recent volatility has provided loads of opportunities! The S&P just touched bear territory today, 20% drop. So you don’t want to be all in on certain stocks.
Anyways it’s been a great week this week!
For those looking for a long term growth play with immediate SP catalysts. Check out PXC. Cracking price atm, my average there is 52p. I have mentioned it before but there has been legislative news released today that will accelerate permitting in USA.
For those looking for some shoot or bust excitement where the short term upside could be like 10x check out CLON. Massive high impact drill with 33% COS but they are drilling part of a producing gas fairway (Western Australia) which has had an 88% success rate! All said it’s still super high risk so £100 or a couple of £k. Whatever your risk appetite is but I wouldn’t buy more than you can afford to write off. If you get more there will likely be an opportunity to take profits ahead of TD.
Usual caveats
Trek
Def a contender. thank you
Sam, have you thought about Direct Line? Its paying a dividend of 9% and a good chance of capital growth imo.
Started: sotonspike, 17 May 2022 20:31
Last post: whitelye, 19 May 2022 14:47
Aviva tipped in the Times today, currently yields about 7.45% and forecast to increase in years '23 and '24.
Hi Trek, the more I look at this the more it is annoying. I have tried to strike a balance between income shares, used either for income or investment in more or different shares, and more speculative one's where the potential for a real profit is. At the moment I have approx 80 per cent income, which includes this share as well as bp, glaxo, diversified energy, anglo pacific, next energy,taylor maritime (tmp $) for example. On the more speculative, phoenic copper, savannah energy, ebiquity, east imperial and redx pharma . So when contour goes I have a real dilemma as many of the income shares are already at a high. I know people talk about henderson Far East but I do fear that China is going to kick off at some stage and am exposed to that scenario already through Anglo. So in summary I wish this event had not happened ! I also am holding at the moment as will get the two dividends and in the current energy market there could yet be a counter bid. The trials and tribulations of investing ! Best regards Sam
Just adding my belated thanks, Trek. MF put GLO on my radar, but you gave me the thorough background and confidence to buy sub 190, which I kept doing. I only ever picked up 1 divi here before selling the lot yesterday morning. Will 'DYOR' the best I can, but closely following your tips/advice, as I am sure many others are.
Very well said Trek , and I agree with every sentiment in your message. Things are going to get difficult for everyone and not least pensioners. I want to keep my standard of living as well as hopefully helping our children. By sharing knowledge these boards help enormously in that regard. Well done you. Warmest regards Sam
Just saw this and other posts.
Thank you all for your kind words.
My view is if PI’s can make a few bob they tend to do some good with it and that helps make the world better.
We don’t win them all as it’s a flipping jungle and stuff is often loaded against us! But if we share and call it as we see it with honesty we can help each other even if it gives a different view or perspective. That’s what these BB’s are for.
I am thrilled that some folk have made a bit here even though many are loosing a steady income. Mine was 8.55% but the one off premium represents a fair few years divi up front to invest elsewhere.
Good luck with your investments.
Usual caveats
Trek
Started: AgentB, 18 May 2022 17:49
Last post: AgentB, 18 May 2022 17:49
Quelle surprise!
https://youtu.be/D2t4u_tEefM
Between them and Blackrock, they own the world!
Started: TrekMadone, 18 May 2022 08:45
Last post: Bananaman2, 18 May 2022 10:46
Good summary Trek. I had personally bought 17500 shares and sold the lot for 2.586. It was not any easy decision but overall I have cost myself £1000 in doing this now. That was considered when I sold the lot yesterday. I have slung some into DEC, some into VSL and some into GKP but have half left in which I am yet to find a home. I am a dividend investor and have actually improved my PF yield with yesterdays purchases. I just felt from where I was it was more beneficial to do it now that in 3 - 4 months time.
Maybe if i was holding more I may have looked at it differently and held on but I have been sitting on Petroteq shares for nearly a year whilst I wait for an hostile bid to transpire. I couldnt handle 2 of my stocks in the same position although this GLO looks very likely to complete. I dont think its as easy as someone making a greater offer when the current Bidco already own the majority share.
BTW Is default, just do nothing and 263 pennies will show up in your account sometime?
Interesting that you suggest GLO.L's biz has suddenly become trendy. And here was me holding it since ever just because it was a nice little divvy earner! Difficult play. We'll see how things go today.
Apart from the obvious asset give away at 1/3 of EV!! what does it mean to PI’s contemplating selling now?
Assume you have 1000 shares…
T/O price 263.6p
You get 1000 x (£2.636-4p) = £2596 per 1000 shares.
By waiting you collect the divi = 4.0128 x 1000 shares = £40.128
So £2596 + £40.128 = £2636.128
Those selling now going by the last trades today on LSE get 256.5p.
So 1000 x £2.565 = £2565 (less your costs, I will leave out)
That’s a difference of £71.128 per 1000 shares..
For an average PI, I have no idea what that is, but say a few that invested may have up to 5000 shares, some may have 100000 but I bet most have a couple of thousand shares as they spread their risk elsewhere.
So the point is….
5000 shares = 5 x £71.128 = £355.64
100000 shares = 100 x £71.128 = £7112.8
Now factor in Reservoir Capital that have undertakings for 71.36% of the issued shares then you do the math!
So the price is well positioned so that it’s hardly worth holding the shares for the average PI but it is for much bigger holders.
That is why you are seeing buys coming through for say 200k shares because it’s worth taking money off LIBOR and putting it on risk here for those that can but for the smaller shareholders they are selling relatively cheap and Bidco are mopping up the shares and the votes!
For a large buyer it’s pretty much free money if it goes through as the vote is a forgone conclusion due to Reservoir’s huge holding and delay risk is underpinned by the next two close together divi’s and the obvious asset discount.
If you think this bid is undervalued as I do then others will to. Simple as. It’s just a question of time now. Hopefully potential bidders will be doing the numbers.
The oil majors are awash with cash and have been selling HC assets to develop renewables. GLO has an amazing pf of assets and it would be relatively easy to offload any you didn’t want as they run pretty much independently.
However, a ‘small PI holding’ would have to factor in the additional time and unknowns for say an extra 25p premium a share IF a counter bid came in. Again that may not be worth the risk but it may be for a larger holder.
For them the risk is also ‘as long as the deal completes’. However, favour is that the majority shareholders already have 75% of vote and there is unlikely to be any competition or regulatory conflict as it’s small scale assets.
So holders will get at least 259.6p a share + the divi if buying now and holding to the end or a 6.6p payment per share for waiting.
That’s £66 per 1000 shares! Or £3300 on 50k shares! (2.568% for 6 months). Not to be snubbed at!
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the price to move up as institutional investors work it through as the can also hedge the downside.
I intend to hold the ones I have now. I may sell some if I need the cash but am not selling out otherwise.
Usual caveats
Trek
Started: sotonspike, 17 May 2022 08:31
Last post: OracleofOldham, 17 May 2022 19:19
Congrats long term holders.
I sold out a few weeks ago as was short of money and wanted to cash in on the fall of Meta and Baba.
Alway planned to buy back in asap but alas.
Shame in a way as another good small UK company being picked off before it has the chance to show it's true potential but well done anyone making a good profit as that's what the game's all about
Thanks for all discussion of alternatives for reinvestment of GLO proceeds. When the price is right I also like SHED, TEEC, PHNX, CTY, LXI, EPIC, VSL, but there’s nothing quite like GLO!
I have thought for a while that SSE might be on the radar of one of the big energy players and the GLO takeover certainly plays to that scenario. I would imagine that many companies in the power generation sector are potential targets now. Worth being invested I would say.
Although GLO was yielding about 8.5% yesterday that has now dropped back to around 6.25% based on the takeover price. I want to stay in the power generation / renewable sector but will invest a proportion of my holding in a fairly secure high yielder such as LGEN or M&G and the remainder possibly in GSF and NESF. I could maintain a 6.25% yield that way. Anything to do with power gen or storage appears to be under 6% apart from NESF. Just some thoughts which could be blown out of the sky by the 4th quarter. I saw VSL mentioned and I am a holder of that stock and it has always been a reliable payer. However, I find the company difficult to fathom out, their RNS announcements even more so. I am a long term holder of CSN, RECI, AEW and CLIG. All of whom have been reliable payers. At the end of the day a counter bid for GLO would be the best outcome, it does seem an undervalued offer.
Thanks for the useful tips for replacements.
Also worth a look - Diversified Energy DEC pays a 10% dividend (with US wihholding tax), growing nicely and very committed to the dividend (they fix 90% of the revenues - gas). Tend to get overlloked by as the accounts are messed up by non-cash MTM on their hedging. They are going for full US listing in June and this may provided a kicker.
Regards
Started: hjkl, 17 May 2022 10:48
Last post: Pangloss73, 17 May 2022 11:45
Good point. Interesting that the great and good don't always get it right. Out today:
Goldman Sachs raises ContourGlobal price target to 211 (208) pence - 'neutral'
Represents a useful return for me as only held GLO for months not years. But but but...
This is not a good advert for listing on the stock market with a limited free float for what was otherwise a private equity investment. It's up to us as private investors to search out good investments and take advantage of market myopia but it is concerning when quality like this is overlooked/penalised. Why would the next company follow a similar route - in my opinion without the market steering the valuation a takeover would likely have been at a higher price.
And that means that in the end you and me will be denied these opportunities.
Started: JDread, 17 May 2022 09:44
Last post: JDread, 17 May 2022 09:44
DEC
Started: TrekMadone, 13 May 2022 08:17
Last post: TrekMadone, 13 May 2022 20:40
However, I also have an account which I manage for my wife. Its only ITs in there. I hold HFEL, NESF and GSF as I do in my own. If I added those to my own holdings HFEL and NESF would be one of my biggest and GSF would be in the top 8 of that list below.
As of today my PF percentages are as
IMB 12%
MNG 11%
PHNX 11%
DLG 11%
GLO 8%
HFEL 7.75%
NESF 7.4%
VSL 5.6%
I am holding 18 different stocks and Investment Trusts across finance, insurance, tobacco, energy, oil and gas, infrastructure. Capital loss on most as I started investing over a year ago. However, with dividend I am around 2% down overall and reinvest every penny.
I may sack off some of the smaller holding IT's that have performed well and current yields are under 6% and throw into GLO to boost the annual returns. Some of the ITs do not increase dividends annually and just about cover dividends through earnings. I think GLO is a better bet.
Given that we. are all fans. and shareholders. of. GLO, are any. of. you prepared . to say. what percentage of your . share portfolios is invested . in the. company as I. would like. to. compare that my own portfolio I. have 6% in GLO. As an income investor and just. for. information - I have 9% in HFEL , 7% in LGEN, and 6% in both. PHNX. and. NCYF.
I also had another 5000 shares this morning. I'm out of cash now. Just dividends to reinvest as they come in.
I'm hoping for the sale of Petroteq to close in June. Its been going on for a year now. Then I will have some more cash to deploy. Buy and leave alone is my investment style now. Dividend compounding is the strategy. This (GLO) fits perfectly
USD/GBP has also given the divi a healthy lift. 16p annualised return from a boring stock that trades in the 180-200p range. Happy days.
Started: Bananaman2, 13 May 2022 08:18
Last post: Bananaman2, 13 May 2022 08:18
Pleasant reading. Growth all round apart from adjusted net profit. I expect down to, as they state a conviction to increasing the dividend by 10% annually and several outages affecting bottom line. Unfortunately pressure equipment and boilers etc need to have regular or planned maintenance.
Boring stuff but I like it.
Started: TrekMadone, 25 Apr 2022 09:27
Last post: TrekMadone, 12 May 2022 19:25
Quite likely. I have had to break trades down to 1k before. Check my posting history here. I only pay £3.99 a trade with ii so it often costs in for me as the ask can be elevated for larger purchases esp if you go above the EMS.
Usual caveats
Trek
I note that I paid a premium to the ask when I purchased 3000 shares. Is this due to a small free float ?
Bought my first here. 5k starter pot at 190p. Been keeping an eye on these for some time. Spreading capital around and will leave some as just cash. Seem to be a solid dividend payer and relatively stable SP for now.
I bought 10k at sub 190. These are the ones I sold at 195/6 from memory a while back. I have a big pot here so I work my average if opportunities arise.
If you factor in the last divi increase I am now getting a forward yield of around 8%
The sp hasn’t moved that much after xd and tends to recover on the drip thereafter.
You have to accept this is an income play with its own trading range. It shouldn’t move too far out of that either side other than for transformational news.
Usual caveats
Trek
Well, it dipped below 189 on Friday. Just under 3K more shares for the dividend pot - in 1 trade.
Trek, is this likely to fall to the low 280s after the Nov 2022 divi? Want to lower my average (282) & increase holding here for long term income.
Started: Bananaman2, 12 May 2022 12:16
Last post: Bananaman2, 12 May 2022 16:55
Actually just added a few more. I don't mind boring and trading at a discount to NAV.
Also finally added SYNT. Hadn't seen the price today until you mentioned them. I'm sure they were nearer £3 yesterday when I looked
Thanks Trek
Yes. Always do my own research. I was actually looking for the negatives but you haven't listed any !
Appreciate the other you mention. I am currently holding PHNX and got my eye on SYNT.
Thanks
It’s a boring divi stock. Even the management are trying desperately to change its perception and attribute more realistic SP value. Look at the majority holder and the last statements it’s all there.
As I have said before we trade on a NAV discount and a healthy forward yield akin to an alternative energy ETF. There you pay annual fees for the same sort of nav discounts for someone else to run the pf.
Here you have assets in Europe and America’s, 20 countries! So you get diversity there and also none in UK which helps, especially if the govt change the terms for a windfall tax from North Sea to all uK energy!
You also benefit from fx tailwinds and a divi at 1.9x cover on my last calcs. Also 10% yoy increase makes it inflation ‘proof’.
Only a small amount of the pf is coal. Most is renewables. Even got us a ESG B rating which puts us on the insti radar but coz the stock is pretty illiquid you can’t really by in mass.
That’s why so many small trades as MM’s try to generate liquidity and manage the price.
Oh and the company IS growing, its debts are per assets so that protects the wider pf. It also has a pot of cash for aquisitions or a special divi and costs are passed on to consumers.
The divi is quarterly which has meant several times now when it goes xd the SP hardly moves! Unlike e.g. DLG, LGEN or PHNX of late which saw the divi and extra come off the SP.
So what are you missing. Nothing. Only that there is value to be found in these markets if you run you own numbers and have your own convictions.
Some other high divi payers for you to research … CMCX, JIM, SYNT, SEPL and PHNX all pretty good bets at their current SP’s! But GLO is my fav!
Usual caveats
Trek
Have been researching here over the last few days and seriously considering adding further today. I am aware of the disposal of the Brazilian assets and the global foot print GLO have with a wide range of energy producing assets. revenue may be impacted this year but margin is apparently increasing as will dividend yield with a policy or claim to increase 10% YoY. That would make this years at this price over 8% as I believe Trek said in a previous post.
Is this a defensive stock ? a little boring perhaps ? (thats what I like) Is it under valued to NAV ?
What am I missing ? where are the or what are the negatives ?
Started: TrekMadone, 8 Apr 2022 21:00
Last post: sotonspike, 19 Apr 2022 13:38
Sam i was referring to the previous post about Gore street nice divi but high charges....
Surely this is a share with dividends and no charges ? or am I being slow today ?
Hi yes a nice 6% divi...but the charges are quite high per annum just under 3%....guess you pays your money and take your choice...that was through HL.....
Not a recommendation but rather an interesting possibility to read about is Gore Street Energy Storage, the flip side of Contour. Four divies a year, a cash cow (especially in today's energy market) and an opportunity to get in relatively early in its history.
Hi Trek,
Thank you for sharing. Most of my money is tied up in rental properties but shares are where I can really get some additional good income. I have a small portfolio of 21 companies valued circa £85,000 which is small by yours and a number of peoples here but am pleased that it is growing. My shares can be basically divided into three . 1 .Income . I like shares that give four good dividends a year. These consist of BP,DEC,GLO,APF and GSK. 2. Boring but safe with reasonable dividend. These consist of VLD,TW,DRX and LGEN. 3. Speculative with room for good growth. These are XLM,REDX, SAVE, and EISB. The largest is the latter which I hope later this month will be announcing launch in UK, local production agreements and growing USA sales. Finally I own Harworth and Watkin Jones, both of which are doing really well. So there you have my little empire. Have triedd to spread the risk but some I would like to have a lot more in .Time will tell !
Started: TrekMadone, 14 Apr 2022 14:33
Last post: TrekMadone, 14 Apr 2022 14:33
Just a read across from todays Telegraph….
“ National Grid cashes in on energy price surge
National Grid has upgraded its profit forecasts after cashing in on the recent surge in energy prices.
The utilities giant said it expects underlying profits in its UK business to be above the guidance given in November, mainly driven by higher inflation.
It comes after the price cap on energy bills soared 54pc from the start of this month, while a further rise is expected at the next review in October.”
Usual caveats
Trek
Last post: TrekMadone, 1 Apr 2022 11:07
XD today and SP hardly moves. That smoothing is one of the benefits of quarterly payers.
Good choices intoodeep. I held all of those. Sold lex recently just to bank some profits for elsewhere. May buy back though. I also added to both TXP and PXC recently.
Usual caveats
Trek
That's me in GLO, PXC, TXP and LEX. All LTHs for me. Nothing much to do till April 6th - ISAs maxed out. 'DYOR' is quite hard with a full tim+ NHS post, so careful reading of RNS, some posts and & Telegram for PXC is as far as it goes. Learning all the time. Patience is the biggest lesson.
Wow 200p on the ask. Even I am surprised at that response on results day. Institutions usually need permission before investing!
Market defo had this one wrong!
Usual caveats
Trek
Was all pretty obvious really but the market likes certainty
Can ‘only’ get a price for 1500 shares now. Could be investec or liberum recommending to clients or investing.
For any potential buyers. Buy your time and try to get in sub 190p. If you are in for the long run then sub 200p is very good.
Use the divi as a sp benchmark so try and get +6%. Once the yield goes below 6% then the sp will likely pull back. 6-6.8% yield is its trading range. Buying now gives you the higher dive paid April 14.
Note this is a defensive income stock not for capital gain. Fair value imo is 220-250 but these stocks trade at nav discount.
If you want excitement for O&G look at TXP or for pharma IQAI both very high risk but imo worth a punt.
Usual caveats
Trek
Started: Ampthillmob, 22 Mar 2022 08:31
Last post: Ampthillmob, 22 Mar 2022 08:31
Directors frustrated that share price sucks.
I like the fact that they are determined to bridge that gap.
Started: TrekMadone, 18 Mar 2022 07:51
Last post: TrekMadone, 18 Mar 2022 10:10
Only two questions interestingly both from analyst (investec and liberum ).
Discussing CO2 offsets, European pricing risks. Not much really all well covered by Joe.
I was disappointed that the web call didn’t take questions. You had to be on the dial in. Although their IR are very good and will reply promptly.
I had two takeaways. One was the significance of the forward selling price differential over the short term spot price selling.
GLO are boxing clever playing the arbitrage to get a better price for their energy selling up to a year out. The benefits with the current vix are more than I realised.
The financial performance was as we know outstanding and he laid out plans for growth which was one of my other concerns.
As for debt I wasn’t worried anyway but it’s worth checking out the slides it’s clearly explained.
Another point of interest was a throwaway comment on Trinidad and Tobago gas. My biggest position is TXP which is why I looked up!
At around 80p TXP is a significant tip. Lots of transformational news due soon and it’s balance sheet is very healthy with a good RCF on excellent terms for todays market. High risk that one though but for those that want exposure to an energy provider with near term exploration and additional production upside in a safe jurisdiction it’s worth a look. Expect a range of 72-90p for now though.
Usual caveats
Trek
@TrekMadone, thanks for your posts.
Any interesting questions raised on the call? Analysts generally happy or any concerns?
“ (Alliance News) - ContourGlobal PLC said on Friday it delivered a record financial performance in 2021 as a result of good power plant operations and increased its quarterly dividend payout.
The London-based power generation company with assets across the world reported a pretax profit of USD142.9 million in 2021. This was nearly double the previous year's figure of USD72.3 million.
Revenue totalled USD2.15 billion, up 53% from USD1.41 billion. Of this, thermal energy revenue grew 77% year-on-year to USD1.71 billion, while renewable energy declined 0.8% to USD443.7 million against the previous year.
ContourGlobal said this revenue increase was mainly driven by its Western Generation acquisition completed in February, higher CO2 pass through revenue from its Maritsa thermal power plant in Bulgaria and higher pricing at its Arrubal power plant in Spain.
Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation grew 17% to USD841.5 million from USD722.0 million.
The company declared a fourth quarter dividend of 4.465 cents per share, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth.
ContourGlobal added it has started the financial year positively and is currently trading ahead of expectations.
Shares in ContourGlobal were up 0.6% at 191.60 pence on Friday morning in London.
By Heather Rydings; heatherrydings@alliancenews.com
Copyright 2022 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.”
Trek
Right on brother......this is a keeper excellent dividend like some others wish i had purchased more.....
Wow, well done guys!
Good to tuck these away for a few years and enjoy the income.
Not that it matters but £1k of my divi will go to charity including Ukraine.
I am a great believer in sharing a little good leads to other people doing more good.
On their web call now then will be out to enjoy this sunshine.
Peace to all!
Trek
Started: hjkl, 18 Mar 2022 08:38
Last post: hjkl, 18 Mar 2022 08:38
Very good results - clearly a well managed company. I like the opportunities offered by the portfolio - both in terms of thermal/renewable and geographical.
Can't find much to fault. Appreciate that some have previously queried the high debt. For most sectors it would be on the high side but for a utility it's standard. These are assets with predictable low risk returns so it makes sense to leverage.
Started: Paul2566, 10 Mar 2022 07:16
Last post: TrekMadone, 14 Mar 2022 18:47
8am call with results and on a Friday. I like that. Good management discipline!
The little details!
Usual caveats
Trek
Well I traded a few here to protect cash given the war and got another 2p off my average.
It won’t take long for the market to switch on to our European alternative energy production.
I just don’t get why the market is so often so far behind bog standard PI’s. One then ends up questioning one’s own rational.
Anyways I still have a decent position here, third highest in my pf.
Results 18th March should help the city so called analysts decide! They will probably look in here for an explanation! Lol!
Usual caveats
Trek
2022
2021 Fourth Quarter Dividend
· Announcement Date: 18 March 2022
· Ex-dividend Date: 31 March 2022
· Record Date: 1 April 2022
· Payment Date: 14 April 2022
2022 First Quarter Dividend
· Announcement Date: 13 May 2022
· Ex-dividend Date: 26 May 2022
· Record Date: 27 May 2022
· Payment Date: 10 June 2022
Nope. But this is doing very nicely through the crisis with two divi payments on the horizon. Good reasons to hold.
Guess everyone sold up and bought EVR.
Started: TrekMadone, 24 Jan 2022 17:11
Last post: Paul2566, 26 Feb 2022 15:22
I do like the gegraphical spread of GLO and its range of assets. With hindsight I should have been a bit more patient and waited to pick this up around £1.80 instead of my current average (including tax etc.) £1.867.
I like the look of this stock so now have to decide if its worth trying to exit above £1.869 and buy back at a lower point, average down, or just wait for the trading range to rise naturally as I think it will in time.
Recent highs on the 21st, and 22nd of this month appear to make it feasable, and recent lows (excluding this week) over the past few months make an entry around £1.80 look possible.
I have covered the borrowings and pe in previous posts.
Question is define undervalued. It’s not just GLO. It applies to lots of UK stocks especially on a US peer basis.
We are what the market says we are and that unfortunately seems to be based on buys and sells rather than fundamentals.
If you plot GLO to the FTS250 index you will see bar a couple of disconnects we track it. That is a general indication of fair value.
I believe the SP is manipulated by the MM to keep it range bound, it’s their job else there would be huge extremes. I referenced MM schemes before which are MiFID2 compliant. IMO that accounts for the regular small number of share trades put through. You expect to see lots of single trades for a divi scrip but it’s bau hear and on other stocks.
I can regularly sell 30 or even 50k shares but often can’t buy 10k or even 2k without it going NT. Even during the last drop I was quoted 181 to buy when the SP was supposed to be 175.
This is now one of my biggest positions in my pf , that’s how I rate it for income but I have said before that I don’t expect this one to shoot up. Many in this sector trade at a discount to NAV.
I think 250p is a fair price and below 200p gives over 6% yield. The pe is skewed by them paying down debt. It’s a pretty low risk investment. We even now have an ESG B rating badge!
I expect the SP will track the divi. So when they next increase the divi by 10% the SP will lift to keep it in the 5.5-7% range.
Any upside surprises could come from energy price hikes. That is similar to APF in the commodities space. But what goes up usually comes back down.
It’s a really boring hold this one and I think now is bargain basement for income. I am not a fan of trusts, oeic’s, ETF’s etc as I would rather build my own income.
So undervalued or fair value you really have to decide based on what you are looking for and looking at peers.
Good luck with your investments
Trek
Good question. Interested in any replies. Trek this is your area of expertise ..... amongst very many !
I wold. appreciate your. opinion as to. why. GLO is so undervalued. Is it. just the. amount of . . . . debt? The debt. does not. worry me unduly as the. 115 operations. around the. world are obviously producing. the income. to. cover . this. Is. there something else'
Hi trek, I too have purchased more as a sensible precaution given international events, let alone the superb four dividends a year. Interested to see you have taken the plunge re anglo. I know the company quite well and attended the annual results regularly before lock down. Again, a great dividend and investment base. The one concern I have is how the in house new Chef Executive will do.
Started: TrekMadone, 20 Jan 2022 08:04
Last post: TrekMadone, 22 Jan 2022 07:46
Agree the market doesn’t get it. If there was an issue with debt then surely the company would include the third option. Pay down debt. They haven’t…
“ The company said the sale of the subsidiary–which it holds a 71.4% stake in–represents the first step in unlocking value for shareholders and closing the gap between its share price and the intrinsic value of its assets. It will decide whether to reinvest the proceeds into new growth opportunities or return capital to shareholders when the transaction closes.”
https://www.bollyinside.com/news/contourglobal-sells-hydroelectric-business-in-brazil-for-318-million
They are clearly selling because it’s ‘a good shareholder deal’ and it mitigates EM currency risks. With the Fed raising rates EM’s will have to follow to maintain the risk premium. Simple as.
Usual caveats
Trek
I think it is. just the. debt. which is. holding the. SP. back. Investors. do not know or have not bothered. to. find out that. much the. debt is external debt pertaining. to. each specific. operation (115. of them) and not. to the. company as a. whole
Pleased to see this go through. Personally I'd prefer debt reduced a tad in rising rate environment. Seems to be well covered but I do think this is a slight negative for market rerating. By the sounds of it management have the cash earmarked for other uses.
That said I am still scratching my head with GLO.
Utilities sector have been one of the brighter sectors in current market gyrations but GLO SP seems to be stuck in treacle. Div is great but I would like to see some capital appreciation.
Just had a proper read. So reduces non USD/EURO currency exposure to 10%...
“Non EUR or USD adjusted EBITDA currency exposure for the Group will decrease from 14% to 10%”. Looks like wind sale to follow.
Interesting that one of the motives was the disconnect between NAV according to private valuation and what the market currently values GLO for. ‘Cheap!’
This seems to be a challenge for many listed companies. They are based on buy sell pressure rather than what the intrinsic value is. However, in the case of GLO we have a +6.5% yield paid quarterly which I am pretty confident puts a floor under the SP.
The private valuation was about 250p and market valuation is now 188p. That has hardly shifted even after share buy backs, yoy inflation beating divi increases and now some asset sales!
This is looking more and more like a safe boring solid income play if you can tolerate the 20p trading range.
Usual caveats
Trek
I agree totally, a stock holder windfall is nice, but I would rather they add value, which in turn should support long term returns.