Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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"Not all KRI produced crude will find its way into the export pipeline"
That may be true, but there comes a point where the actions of the FGI against us amount to creeping expropriation, something we ought to have some legal protection against; otherwise, we would not invest there.
As per the remarks on P18 (Route to market):
"It is expected the Federal Government of Iraq ("FGI") will control the marketing of Kurdistan's crude oil once pipeline exports resume"
Not all KRI produced crude will find its way into the export pipeline.
Itsaponzi it’s about time for you to try to make some valid points, albeit on subjects that others have been speculating about on this forum for some considerable time.
If I were you I’d read Belgrano’s comments as they seen to be written from a background of knowledge.
Clearly Iranian influence is behind Iraq’s blatant attempt to ‘control’ Kurdistan, and we must say not without success. However, the notion that Iraq can in the long term export Kirkuk oil directly to Turkey via a long pipeline that runs alongside Kurdistan , and at the same time requires Kurdistan to supply cheap oil on the local market in exchange for budget payments is foolish. Someday someone, to be called a terrorist or Isis for convenience, will blow a large hole or two in that.
Patience still required. In the meantime we, (the long investors and not the pessimists that hope GKP will fail) can only hope that some modest profits will support a higher share price and a little dividend on occasion.
"with iran privately....."
got an inside line into those high level iranian conversations have we dumgrano?
and as for as for iran being "a long way behind israel in military capabilities...." iran wasn't the one that got its **** kicked by over 63 ballistic missiles on critical milint locations, hence losing its threat governance in the wider west asian region. and finally - a modest toy (yes toy) drone strike that was entirely thwarted.
you wan t real psychopathic tendencies, see what pepe escobar is reporting happened after iran hit isr.
back to the shares - anyone noticed how gkp and gen have gently ramped and stayed within small tolerances? (swings between +10/-10 are self-cancelling. 80p and 65p are well behind us. someone/thing is taking these two to a baseline where a significant formal news release will make a big difference to share price.
Erdogan's visit to Erbil underscores the depth of Turkey's relations with the KDP. Erdogan enjoys a strong rapport with the Barzani family, particularly has good chemistry with Nechirvan and, to a lesser extent, Masrour. While Erdogan could have bypassed Erbil, his decision to visit during a sensitive period, as the regional government faces massive pressure from Baghdad, can be interpreted as a show of support for the KRG. This is significant because Turkey, as a regional powerhouse, possesses substantial tools to influence developments in Iraq, especially in the context of Kurdistan.
Erdogan and Barzani had a straightforward deal: oil for security. Erdogan allowed the KRG to export oil in exchange for unprecedented KDP cooperation in the war against the PKK and permitting deeper Turkish penetration in Kurdistan. In return, Erdogan provided the KDP with a channel to sell Kurdistan's oil, granting it unparalleled leverage against Baghdad. Although Turkey has benefited from a very generous economic agreement, the key focus for Turkey has been the PKK, given that it is the country's most critical national security issue in recent decades.
However, this dynamic has upset since last year, as KRG oil no longer flows to Turkey's Ceyhan port. Erdogan's regional foreign policy pivot towards economic development rather than hard geopolitical goals may also indicate that he is unwilling to completely sacrifice the economic opportunities in the other 16 Iraqi provinces for the sake of just two provinces, especially with the Development Road project, which can further cement Turkey's role as the hub where all continental routes connecting Europe with Asia converge.
2. With this contextual background established, two factors in the coming weeks will determine what Erdogan has agreed upon in Baghdad and how it will impact Erbil and the future of the Kurdistan Region. Given that the meeting with Masoud Barzani was behind closed doors and no information is available regarding the content, developments in the following weeks will clarify what has been discussed based on these two factors:
a) Oil Exports: The readiness of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is a crucial consideration. If exports resume via this pipeline, it will be a positive development for Baghdad, as the Iraqi government desperately needs to restart oil exports from Kirkuk to generate revenue. However, this puts additional pressure on the KRG to hand over 400 barrels of oil to be transported via the Kirkuk pipeline, as stipulated in the budget agreement for the continuation of salary payments from Baghdad to the KRG. If this occurs, it could spell the end of the KRG's oil pipeline, which has been a symbol of the region's economic potential and has elevated the KRG's status in the global energy market, translating into geopolitical influence.
b) Military Operations Against the PKK: The scope and extent of military operations against the PKK and the level of support Turkey receives fro
Its double standards that although Bagdad pays small amounts for every barrel produced they do in some locations pay more than what the IOC's are asking for.
This is clearly due to having some "special arrangements in place". The Iraqi oil ministers and politicians are getting obscene backhanders for doing nothing. So talk about an upper $6 per barrel limit is pure rubbish.
The actions of Baghdad in deliberate delay for the past year and for the foreseeable must result in international trucking operations resuming to Turkey. They give them no other choice and by withholding budget cements that resolve.
I do believe tensions in the middle east are cooling somewhat, with Iran privately pretty shocked at how easily Israel stopped a very large attack, and then followed it up with a small counter punch which Iran failed to stop. realisation dawns that they are a long way behind Israel in military capabilities so will need to improve.
Hopefully things will now settle down, although Iran will come back for sure in the future.
Last year we had firm messages that Iraq was going to tweak its laws to allow something near contractual payments to the IOC's to go ahead. That timeline moved into this year, and now nothing, just firstly trying to shift blame to the IOC's, then the KRG.
However its Baghdad thats culled the changes and we do not know why or what factions within Iraq put on pressure to Iraqi parliament do it.
Thank you ponzi for so much devotion to help save our money! So many helpful posts with proper analysis. All stock holders are grateful for your unconditional kindness.
That's it in a nutshell Belgrano (Your not an ex submariner by any chance).
It's pushing the Kurds into illegal exporting, which I assume was set up when they were fighting daesh to keep themselves in the game.
Now that threat has reduced, it looks like Iraq want to cripple them to remove wealth and strength.
Erdogan and family were beneficiary's at the time and after ( I belive).
With the US wanting to reduce irans influences will they help the Kurds or throw them under the bus to strengthen relations with Iraq? Trump pulled out and Bush left them high and dry in Gulf 1.
It imo, hangs on what the US will do?
Rgds Sft
109p and still dropping!! Any takers ??
Quite a strong rebuttal from the Kurdistan gov, pointing out that the rules the Iraq gov are trying to enforce have been constructed from non international recognised standards, antiquated from the Saddam regime.
This is due to the fact that Baghdad don't want to tweak their laws, and don't intend to. Every meeting over the last year has clearly been a waste of time. Seems Turkey backs Erbil in this and Iraq is desperate for Turkish water, so its why they are trying to get another export pipeline commissioned . However Turkey has serious investments in the Kurdish IOC's, so in effect gets a double bite of the cherry. It wants Kurdish crude.
Its also a neat way of delaying the whole issue, which is to stagnate the more western backed Kurdish economy. This will be fully supported by Iranian factions and militant groups within Iraq.
Glad we said it was a glimmer of hope, that was spot on.
……. Response only depends only on what’s in it for those in power.
They must be green with envy when they see how wealthy their colleagues in Erbil have become through playing ‘The Oil Game’ with a region’s natural assets - denying the greater population of a share in the wealth, and bullying defenceless IOCs.
"Epicor said its member companies are ready to resume oil exports under current conditions in the interests of the Iraqi people and their partners.
Meanwhile, a source in the Federal Oil Ministry told Iraqi media that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has officially asked the Federal Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani to allow the export of oil from the Kurdistan Region through the Turkish port.
According to the same source, OPEC has asked the Iraqi oil minister to allow the Kurdistan Regional Government to export 200,000 barrels of oil per day through the Turkish port.
What was the Iraqi oil minister's response to OPEC's request? The source said Hayyan Abdul Ghani has sent the request to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani and is awaiting his response."
Source: hxxps:// www. kurdistan24. net/ckb/story/256626
Anyone know anything about this?
___
🇹🇷 — Rudaw reports that since yesterday, the supply of liquefied gas from Sulaimani to Erbil and Duhok has been fully stopped. A high-ranking KDP official in Erbil asserted, "The obstruction is entirely 100% political in nature."
However, the director of the implementing company, which has close ties to the PUK, refuted the claim of political motives and stated that gas supply to Erbil and Duhok would resume later today.
Source: hxxps:// t. me /AssyriaNewsNetwork/4297
hXXps:// rudaw .net /sorani/business/230420244
Personally, I am pushing back (again) my 'restart of exports' assumption date from the beginning of June until the beginning of September. That brings my model's YE fair value price, based on this and other assumptions including CONTINUITY OF THE CURRENT CONTRACT TERMS, to 204p if arrears are fully valued and 151p ex receivables. Discounting these YE numbers to end April (using my 20% discount rate - likely too low) yields 181p and 128p, respectively. Given the enormous uncertainty regarding receivables recovery I'd weight the ex receivables numbers much more than the others. Obviously, any negative adjustments to the current contract terms would have to be factored in once known.
No surprises. It's not just contracts but FDPs as well.
Roxi moxies of this world all got giddy.
May be we will get an Operational & Corporate Update Report soon, we did last year around about this time
So that was not a pump and dump then - 15% move in two days both ways - joke - been here since the fall and hanging on
The US should cease funding Iraq until they prove an open willingness to grow their economy by attracting further investment and accepting previously signed contracts to encourage foreign trade.
Shafaq reported this morning:
"Shafaq News/ Iraqi government official indicated that the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan to Turiye via the closed pipeline, inactive for more than a year, faces extended delays as negotiations persist with the Kurdish government and oil producers.
Basim Al-Awadi, the spokesperson for the Iraqi government, said in a press release that ongoing discussions between companies and the Iraqi Oil Ministry are anticipated to be protracted.
This is because Baghdad aims to establish a direct rapport encompassing production volumes, export procedures, and pricing mechanisms.: Al-Awadi clarified, adding that there is no definite timeline for the conclusion of negotiations with foreign oil entities operating in Iraqi Kurdistan."
Forgot the link (doh)
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34675-Kurdistan-challenges-Iraqi-Ministry%27s-accusations,-asserts-legitimacy-of-oil-contracts
Another article (1 hour ago) base on the post this morning by Theoryman
"Kurdistan challenges Iraqi Ministry's accusations, asserts legitimacy of oil contracts"
Yesterday Iraq and Turkey agreed for Turkey to receive oil resources as compensation for its involvement in the construction projects. Hope the oil transferred won’t count as being part of Iraq’s Opec quota!
https://shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Iraq-to-finance-joint-development-projects-with-Turkiye-from-the-Oil-Fund-spokesperson
Rinse and repeat whilst a lucky few risk selling on the spike.
One day the news will be true and it'll be over £2 in a flash.
I'll continue to sit on mine and keep adding each month , at the current price I'll be under £2 average which itself is a minor miracle after being stuck here for what is it 15 years now?
Caggins\AKIPUR need to inform the ICG that the IOCs (operating under what they deam
to be illegal contracts) have not been paid according to these illegal contracts, and that it is strongly rumoured that the oil being forwarded to Kurdish agents is in turn being sold onwards to sanction breaking countries.
AKIPUR members wish then to have no part in such dealings, and elect to be removed from these illegal contracts.