Member Info for Yo87

Debt has been paid from cash reserves, despite that free cash rose 22.5% y2y. Massive debt is generated by business model-Wizz doesn't own planes, it's lease back and right of use scheme.

This year Ned Debt/EBITDA ratio went down to 3 7 x from 4.4 last year.

TDDW high debt is part of the high risk-high reward game. I've got it, that is why I'm here. But I am surprised/worried about the outcome. I do get that stock market is not black and white. If it was I'd watch weather forecast and buy shares of the companies makes umbrellas in the right time.

If you account debt, even fiver is worth more than Tullow... I'm kind of worried about it. We getting into pre Iranian conflict SP range...

Yep, looks like: "We've got way more money than we expected. Let's appoint our buddies instead invest/pay off some debt "

I do agree £30 is achievable only when everything will go in stock holders favour and this is highly unlikely.

I think £15 for this year is really optimistic, if Iranian conflicts will not end this month we may forget about any profit this year.

If company become profitable, engine issue is sorted, Ukraine airspace is open and jet fuel price (and supply) is reasonable it shouldbe in £30 range easily. But there are too many "ifs" for myself ATM. When Iran war started, I've said to my missus that if it hit £8.5 I'd buy it. Right now I'm not sure if this is a floor unfortunately.

It's difficult to predict. Oil price will stay inflated for months if not years. Jet fuel supply is compromised as well, so some shortages are on the horizon for a holiday season. Any peace related news will bump SP for 10-15%, but IMO it will be short-lived. Higher inflation equals higher rates, and this is very concerning for a company with substantial debt. Rising prices will affect holiday plans of many ppl. Ukraine situation is uncertain-not sure what damages have been done, how many of the air traffic controllers and airport workers are available anymore.

Upside potential of this stock is high, but it comes with higher risk.

Https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/several-blasts-reported-on-irans-kharg-island-rail-bridge-struck-in-central-iranian-city-after-israeli-warning/

Oil prices are absolutely messed up. Brent is falling, and Urals hitting ATH. Question is if Tullow makes enough to be a important player in this game.

It looks like price of Brent oil is been suppressed. Urals hiiting $110/barrel, and crude oil testing $100 mark. There is definitely shortage of fuel in some areas. Slovenia launched rationing already, Slovakia is not far off from it.

What sort of risks are coming to yours minds about SP?

My shots are:

1. Raising costs of crude transport(insurance premiums, forcing routes avoid Suez Canal etc)

2. Rasing inflation forcing interest rates up(with a massive pile of debt it is concerning)

3. Drop in oil demand because of financial crisis.

4. If it go really bad there is a slight chance of nationalisation oil and gas companies(highly unlikely).

Oil still climbing, Houtis threatening to attack Bab el-Mandeb Strait and looks like no-one got idea what to do.

Apart extremely volatility I have no idea what direction it will go.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

Yemeni Houthis threaten to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait in support of Iran https://share.google/oBbwg5VZIkBC1mHkw

I don't think it's over. Even if Iranian military is severely hit and unable to defend themselves, few cheap drones launched by Houthis can put oil prices into a chaos. Strait of Hormuz controls about 20mln bpd. Even 70s oil crisis was caused by disruption about 7mln bpd.

Kind off. Worrying fact is some of the shorts have increased recently when a lot of people (including myself!) thought we are close to a SP bottom. I've cut my losses, sold with 15% loss, and bought one of the oil company shares. I'll be monitoring and get back here at the some point, but this is unpredictable at the moment. Wizzair shouldn't be affected as rest of the carriers, it slashed most of the middle east operations earlier, and I thought it is already included in the price.

If oil price keep climbing we may be in long term trouble..

I've average down, with £13/share buy today

I've sent it too early :)

Not sure if this is good idea, so far all European LCC failed on US flights.

What are your thoughts?

Strategy change? Hungarian Wizz Air eyes flights to America https://share.google/IIp1TDw3najqgXYZB

Hi folks.

Apparently Wizz eyeing (again)US routes.

Not sure if it's just for charter flights for World Cup, or they're planning to start regular flights. Apparently they're going to cancel some flights from Poland to Abu Dhabi, plus they are taking some planes from there as well. So

Trump deflecting allegations against him, put more pressure on Ukraine-Russia and sorting "drug problem" (or control more oil production).

Short-term it has to dropped a bit(Wizz sp), but longer term it will be beneficial for oil price (IMHO)

I was expecting it going down like stone today. Is there really any value left in it?

Definitely interesting times ahead. I've sold my holidngs on Wednesday, after no agreement been made. I'll still keep my eye on GKP because if circumstances change that could be worth way more.

https://chaipredict.com/resources/expiration-saudi-us-petrodollar-agreement