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Do you understand the words "...no direct correlation"?
I don't understand your sentence beginning:
"Secondly, the refiners compete with other local sources of crude; and do you really argue that if that was priced at $120, they would still not pay a single cent more...".
When you say "..if that was priced at $120.." what do you mean by THAT?
I'd like to respond properly to your posting but you're confusing me...
Again, another pretty outrageous comment said with outmost confidence.
First, we know that traders take a substantial of volume from DNO/GKP/SNM and truck it abroad: their ability to price (bid) depends on their ability to sell it abroad.
Secondly, the refiners compete with other local sources of crude; and do you really argue that if that was priced at $120, they would still not pay a single cent more to GKP/DNO/SNM as if local prices was at $40?
To say it doesn't correlate 1:1 is fine, or to say it comes with a lag is fine - but to argue there's no correlation at all to international brent is ludicrous.
Billionaire tribal families like Sleepy Joe's you mean?
This page is hilarious, going on about corrupt states and in English! The Anglo Saxon world is the most corrupt bar none.
China and Russia sort corruption.
UK USA are sewers
I have to agree…. the whole Region is a no-go for serious incoming investment which could be to the benefit of the whole population - due to the criminal and unsustainable greed of a few billionaire tribal families.
Even Sleepy Joe knows what has gone on - and he has to face one of them at next week’s meeting.
Wonder if he’ll lay down the law and get our debts adressed or even paid ??
Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Ticks-Lower-on-EIA-Inventory-Report.html
I just posted this on Genl but relevant to here (although we all know!)
Calling out corruption (genl mentioned)
https://www.diplomaticourier.com/posts/foreign-investment-corruption-risks-iraqi-kurdistan
The refinery yields obtained from processing Tawke, Peshkabir, Swara Tika and Atrush crudes are all very different from that of SH crude and cannot be compared using a simple $/bbl metric as you seem determined to attempt. Sorry, but that's how it is.
You say "...they also sell some volume directly to refiners" - where else do you think they are selling it? Do you think they are paying $15/bbl for trucking it to Ceyhan?
Local prices also fluctuate, no question about that but it's wrong to tie these fluctuations to Brent. If some other local fields were diverting their supplies S to Basrah, as has been reported, that would starve the refineries somewhat and help explain the rise?
Not what I argued, was it? Traders buying from DNO/SNM/GKP have different end markets (and yes, they also sell some volume directly to refiners). Last week, DNO stated that the selling price was up +10% QoQ locally. Can't explain that by looking at prices for Diesel in Iraq, can we?
"PUTUP claiming GKP to be "drastically overvalued at 95p" provides me with a fantastic entry point, and will make for great comedy in a couple of months. "
At no point did I make this claim. Troll.
As I said two days ago (before the latest, short-lived giddiness):
" they received $25 in February when Brent averaged $83.5 a barrel. Clearly the company had to accept a lower price to move greater volume (a strategy which I think is smart as keeping the field ticking over is good). Brent averaged $85.4 in March, up 2.3% on February. We await to see how the company did in March... $35 would be great, but I wouldn't count those chickens yet."
The current share price expects a lot more than local sales
Graph the internal (Iraq) prices for diesel and petrol for the last 10 years against Brent before you spout off...
Again, another pretty outrageous comment said with outmost confidence.
First, we know that traders take a substantial of volume from DNO/GKP/SNM and truck it abroad: their ability to price (bid) depends on their ability to sell it abroad.
Secondly, the refiners compete with other local sources of crude; and do you really argue that if that was priced at $120, they would still not pay a single cent more to GKP/DNO/SNM as if local prices was at $40?
To say it doesn't correlate 1:1 is fine, or to say it comes with a lag is fine - but to argue there's no correlation at all to international brent is ludicrous.
Looks like the day traders have won the day again.
Rise on bed n ISA ?
OR
If the recent rise was down to any good news on meetings and near term has retrenched following conformations that the Kurdish PL has confirmed competition from the repairs to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan PL
It looks like it will be down to the US to assist the Kurds in getting theirs opened now.
I must admit I did not think ( totally missed) the Kirkuk-Ceyhan as the under cut. Turkey / Iraq with out US help have the Kurds over a barrel (forgive the pun).
Rgds Sft
There is NO direct correlation between external (i.e. Brent) prices and the Iraq internal sales price for crude oil.
Local selling prices for Diesel, Petrol and Heating Oils are determined by Government pressure / guidance, not by any international criteria.
GKP's achieved $/bbl price will be determined by local supply & refinery demand criteria, nothing else.
Stick with the $25/bbl for the moment...
With oil at $90 it's probable the sale price achieved is now closer to $30.
GKP should be making well over $10M profit a month.
US visit imminent.
PUTUP, be mindful that when you are speaking to 'theshipscook!' and also 'GRHReturns', you are actually speaking to NUFC, who uses these old posters from iii as a desperate attempt to add gravity to his ramping.
Looks like the yanks won’t be leaving Iraq anytime soon.
Eid Mubarak to all Iraqis and Kurdistan people. Celebrate your Eid and let’s get this oil flowing and let’s all make money instead of war. 🙏
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3735450/usiraq-higher-military-commission-principals-meeting-statement/
Sudani taking representatives of KRG with him to meet sleepy Joe. Bodes well methinks.
https://www.rudaw.net/sorani/world/090420244
Rudaw - Washington
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani and a high-level delegation, including representatives of the Kurdistan Region, will be in Washington next week to discuss various issues with US officials.
One of the most important meetings will be at the State Department, which will be the meeting of the Iraqi High Coordination Committee. A State Department spokesman told Rudaw that the meetings will begin next Monday.
"The US-Iraq High Coordination Committee will meet next week on Monday to focus on the priorities and broader relationship between the two countries, including energy independence, economic reform services for the Iraqi people and strengthening democracy," Miller said and there will be the rule of law as well as educational and cultural ties."
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) delegation will participate in the meetings and the United States intends to resolve the issues between Erbil and Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region, "a resilient and strong region.
"Representatives of the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government will participate in these talks. The United States supports a resilient and strong Kurdistan Region within a strong, federal and stable Iraq, and we encourage the Iraqi and Kurdistan Regional Governments to make their efforts," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told Rudaw "They should do so to solve their problems and provide economic prosperity for all Iraqis.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and US President Joe Biden are scheduled to meet at the White House this afternoon. This meeting will show how successful this visit was.
The meeting also discussed security and energy relations; They will also discuss the remaining US troops in Iraq, the strengthening of armed groups in Iraq and the problems between Erbil and Baghdad.
د. "The meeting will also discuss relations between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Iraqi federal government, which have had many obstacles and the United States has encouraged them to resolve them. I think the prime minister did a good job to reach a bilateral agreement," he said At least time to resolve issues, until all issues are fully resolved and we hope these relations will continue to be strong.”
The Iraqi prime minister is scheduled to meet with the media and research centers to discuss Iraq-US relations and the situation in the region.
Big cash cow this is . Once the dark clouds disappear a takeover will come at £4-5. A company that was paying handsome dividends with no debt is ££££££ to the bank!
They will have to close their short soon
We have been here so many times over the last year.
I have been invested since 09 (pre strike) and with dividends if it gets to 150p I am even, but torn mentally, between get out with my shirt on my back (which at several points looks impossible) or hold for better times once more......I dare say many long term holders will be in the same boat and hence, strong hands, leading to spike?
All I know is, I once believed in a super giant oil find that should have been life transforming for not only GKP shareholders, but for the long suffering people of Iraq, needless to say it has not been an easy road and I don't think we have quite reached our destination quite yet.
GL all and let us hope for much better days ahead.
Looks like its being steadily walked up towards £1.40 levels by end of week, or shorts closing??
Huh? He updated everyone less than two weeks ago! He needn't respond to speculation.
I would like to get the figures on volumes and sale price for March, however.
Probably time for Jon Harris to come clean about what oil is going where and when I would imagine. The share price says enough
Let's remind ourselves, that Apikur members are free to negotiate outside of apikur. It's even been stated as much.