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Probably time for Jon Harris to come clean about what oil is going where and when I would imagine. The share price says enough
Let's remind ourselves, that Apikur members are free to negotiate outside of apikur. It's even been stated as much.
@broadfordbay - surely that can’t be true can it? After all an Iraqi minister told us a couple of weeks ago that they were still waiting for the documents. 😂
You seem to be disappointed in the share price trajectory - strange.
Certainly someone knows a lot more than us with the gentle but steady upward pressure on share price.
Captain,
thank you for posting that Rudaw inteview with KRG Cabinet Sec. Rahim.
The following section caught my eye and, if a true representation of what was said, needs some serious thought by investors:
"There was one point of disagreement on the oil issue: the wages of the companies. Has any agreement been reached on this issue?
First of all, the Kurdistan Region does not have a national oil company to force its companies to agree to the money determined by the Iraqi oil ministry, SO THIS PROBLEM IS MORE BETWEEN THE OIL COMPANIES AND THE IRAQI OIL MINISTRY, not between the KRG and the federal government. In the latest step, we took representatives of all companies to Baghdad and met with the oil ministry under the supervision of the finance committee, and provided any documents they requested. THEREFORE THE PROBLEM IS NOW BETWEEN THE COMPANIES AND THE IRAQI OIL MINISTRY, although unfortunately the suspension of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region has caused more than $500 million monthly loss to the Iraqi treasury."
(CAPS are mine)
That reads rather like "It's not my problem lads, it's up to you to sort it out".
I see this as a continued de-dollarisation of crude by the Row on the heels of the slow death of the Empire of Lies....
Their Rules-based disorder is coming to an end and, as we see with Chinese, and many other 3rd party countries, they are increasingly trading crude in their own currencies.
This will only accelerate and the "western world" including the UKUSNATO, will find ourselves out of the loop of a multipolar world of trade
I must say that I found yesterday’s events to be fascinating. I woke up in the morning in the expectation that the price of GKP would rise substantially on the weekends press reports and rumours as discussed on this forum, and sure enough the price confirmed that their had to be substance in those reports. However, late morning reports of Russian meddling in the pipeline dispute and the existence of a route into Turkey that bypassed Kurdistan sent the shares tumbling, fortunately more so for General. Then as the buys continued to outnumber the sells the price stabilised.
At that point I became confused with the direction of the next move and as a share trader it’s my purpose to know, or confidently guess. Therefore I woke up this morning with the feeling that I should hold while I waited for this morning’s early share price movements to become my trading guide. And at this moment in time the market seems to be sitting on the same fence as mine.
Confused? With shares in GKP you certainly will be.
What do you guys make of this? Is the bottleneck the transportation fee the Russians want? It looks Sudani talked to these russian companies first.
https://twitter.com/KurdistanWatch/status/1777091351219224661
Representatives of two major Russian oil companies, Lukoil and Gazprom, arrived in Erbil today to discuss KRG oil exports and the development of Kurdistan's oil fields.
Details: A delegation from the two companies separately met with the Minister of Natural Resources and the Head of the Diwan of Prime Ministry Omed Sabah in Erbil.
According to Sabah, the meetings discussed the agreement between the KRG and the Iraqi government to resume oil exports, as well as the investment activities of Russian companies in the region.
Later, Vadim Botakov, Director General of Russian Gazprom in Iraq and the Middle East, visited the Prime Minister's Office.
Sabah stated that the meeting emphasized continuous coordination between the KRG and oil companies, as well as the KRG's ongoing efforts for strategic partnerships with oil companies and resolving oil and gas issues between the Iraqi Federal Government and the KRG within the constitutional rights of the Kurdistan Region.
The development of oil fields was another topic discussed between the Head of the Bureau and the Russian company's representative. Sabah reaffirmed the KRG's support for the energy sector and oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region.
In 2017, the Russians established a presence in the KRG's oil sector, with Rosneft owning 60% of the Kurdistan oil pipeline worth $1.7 billion, according to an agreement signed in the presence of the KRG Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and Minister of Natural Resources.
Oil exports from the KRG have been suspended since March 25, 2023, prompting foreign oil companies to write a letter to the United States demanding pressure on Baghdad to resume exports.
Despite the suspension of exports to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, companies are currently producing 200,000 to 220,000 barrels of oil per day in the Kurdistan Region.
After resolving the salary issue, the Iraqi authorities are expected to work on resuming oil exports from the Kurdistan Region, as the budget law requires the KRG to export 400,000 barrels of oil per day, with the revenues going directly to the Federal Ministry of Finance. The only disputed issue between Erbil, Baghdad, and foreign companies remains the cost of oil production in the Kurdistan Region.
Looking at the closing trades, definitely something going on, expect a high early price tomorrow.
Hxxps://www.rudaw.net/english/world/08042024
Now that's the kind of trade I like to see, when a shorter closes or someone puts a big chunk of money in.
Apr-24 17:29:26 121.70 170,191 Unknown* 207.12k
I'm trading this stock on the periphery of my investment right now...you guys can talk geopolitics all you want but we're here to make money and right now there's easy pickings...
I need to re-state my commitment to GKP as a future business model which I believe in.
However, we're all here to make money.
Sooner and later.
Don't you just love this share?
And that's it.
EIA link on pipelines: https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_long/Iraq/iraq_bkgd.pdf
EIA pipeline info: page 5. It's the part going from Kirkuk to the border being repaired: if anything it adds incremental capacity.
Total capacity of 1.5 million of barrels per day to Turkey still stands, and Iraq and absolutely not Kirkuk can fill that anytime soon.
Furthermore, here's a presentation from SOMO in Germany last year: https://www.numov.de/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Oil-and-Gas-Sectors-In-Iraq-ver-16.pdf
Iraq is building, and planning to build, plenty of capacity throughout the country for exports.
Plenty of room for the IOCs to fill up their entire production imho.
What's important now is that Baghdad, KRI and IOCs settle on some contracts. Pipelines are a smoke screen.
From my understanding, both pipes (40" and 46") are fully working on the Turkey side. If Iraq now repairs the lines down to Kirkuk, one might assume they repair both the 40 & 46 thus the capacity is 1.6 million/d - plenty of capacity.
Makes little difference to us , the locals are making a fortune off our cheap trucked oil and will continue to do so whilst the pipeline issues continue with or without the repaired one coming backonline.
"Their subsequent announcement that they were only being paid 25, albeit for larger amounts, disappointed the market. "
Yes, they received $25 in February when Brent averaged $83.5 a barrel. Clearly the company had to accept a lower price to move greater volume (a strategy which I think is smart as keeping the field ticking over is good). Brent averaged $85.4 in March, up 2.3% on February. We await to see how the company did in March... $35 would be great, but I wouldn't count those chickens yet.
"What are the implications of this for GKP?"
Not good by the looks of it as far as oil export participation but could be excellent when it comes to selling the oil locally. I'll be happy with $35 local realised price if @ max production capacity of 60 kbopd+
Best Regards ValueS
Thanks @ValueS and all those who share news.
So does this mean we should expect Kurdish Pipeline to be fully excluded?
What are the implications of this for GKP?
IF the old pipeline (Kirkuk-Baiji-Mosul-FK-Ceyhan) has been repaired (I believe most of the damage by DAESH was to the 2 pumping stations) then Baghdad will still have to use the FK Export Pumping and Metering Station as it’s the only one available to my knowledge.
As KRG claims the FK station is within their territory, how then will that use by SOMO be achieved - by force or by agreement?
Using force cannot be ruled out and is what is wanted by some hardliners in Baghdad, but may not be necessary at the end of the day.
Agreement will involve compromise by both sides.
The 2 Issues that I see both impinge on the APIKUR / PSC discussions and -arguments:
Grade/Blend Quality
Partly for reasons of national pride, SOMO wish to reinstate as closely as possible the old Kirkuk Blend (ca 32-33API, S=2.5%) and they will want to differentiate between their current 3 Basrah grades (Heavy, Medium, Light) and the reinstated K grade. SOMO will determine which grades and what volumes of each will make up that export blend.
Flow Volume
The main SOMO inputs will be from the Avanna, Bai Hassan and Kirkuk formations and, assuming that a proportion (one third?) of that output will be earmarked for the Baiji refining complex for local refined product sale, we could be talking about flowing volumes from the South in that pipeline of ca 300 - 350Mbopd.
As the Ceyhan pipeline capacity is currently probably no more than 450-500Mbopd, full capacity utilization is therefore one of the factors that could be discussed by SOMO & KRG.
However, 500 – 350 only equals 150Mbopd (contribution by KRG) and that would be a big blow for the KRG/MNR – and for the local KRG producers hoping for unfettered export access.
Don’t get too excited…
Only the dumbest muppet would believe that was a question. What a muppet.
Not you DBSU. ;0)
It's wonderful to see the rise in SP from all the excitement today - gives a preview of how this may pop once the dust settles!
In my previous messages I considered whether the soon-to-be-repaired alternative "Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline" would be used to a) supplement the Kurdish pipeline, or b) outright replace it, leaving KRG seriously undermined.
My premise is that it makes perfect strategic sense to circumvent Krudistan altogether if possible (and as we are reading, it is possible), thereby undermining their economic and thus political autonomy. This seems to be happening.
What I would like to know is how GKP would fare if the new reality is closer to Option B (Kurdish pipeline ignored; all oil must go through newly repaired and ICG/SOMO-controlled Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline).
Dohuk to Kirkuk is a 3 hour drive give or take...
What are everyone's thoughts about the operational and financial implications for GKP, if this turns out to be the case?
Up 5% a moment ago. All over the place