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So I think all shareholders need to think long and hard what an approach at 28p, 35p, 50p would mean to them. Do you take the money or do you want to see what is inside the box (very old reference for some). Is this a trade for £10,000 or is it something that you will NEVER repeat and could make your extended family forever grateful long after you have gone? Sadly if you have less than a million shares in GGP you arent going to have much of a voice., despite what it could mean for you. Just the way the maths work. But lets say you have over 10m shares, maybe 5m, then I think Shaun might want to know your thoughts.
For me I am going to let him know that I dont want a deal at any price this year or next. Not until we know what really is in greater Havieron. There is no point in saying any number higher than 50p cos there is no way NC will be offering that this year. This will give Shaun some good information and might just strengthen his position if Sandeep puts the call in.
One other thing that could happen of course is that someone beats Sandeep to it and bids for NC. That would be fun as Sandeep would have to go from the ultra cautious, conservative CEO to have to lift his skirt and show the world what he has been hiding from us in those drilling reports and internal growth projections.
Finally if you think what I have said is total tosh, then what was Proactive doing flying that kite about going the whole hog and buying GGP? Was it just some MF type nonsense?
IMO it was at NCs request to see what gives.
Here ends my 'magnificent octopus'. Baldrick.
Sadly it was exactly that - some MF type nonsense.
Any T/O attempt from NCM will be met with some serious counter offers from others and may even cause a T/O attempt on them (They are undervalued and are a potential target).
It will also do some serious reputational damage to NCM and will make any future JVs they try to enter into difficult.
It is a poorly researched article that has now put Proactive on a questionable footing. Where is the 'rife speculation' before the article was published. None evident, I'm afraid.
Whatever 'they' are up to is anybody's guess - whoever 'they' are!
I think even smaller shareholders have a strong voice.As individuals we are weak but together we have a lot more power.If I wanted peanuts I would have bought a monkey.This is a once in a lifetime find as Hydrogen said so hopefully we don’t sell.atb
I wouldn’t need to think long at all about 28p I’d just be sick!
At 35p I’d think I had been robbed.
50p at this juncture I would ponder.
I must be one of the old ones, I played open the box once in a pub many years ago, bought my ticket for £1 and went to the end and won £360. Relate it to my first GGP of I think 1.11p and that’s more like it.
They could certainly shove the first three where the sun don't shine.
GLA
Totally agree WF! As I also noted yesterday, I thought that it was an appalling article in it's content by Giulia Bottaro of Proactive and absolute nonsense about speculation being "rife" about a possible 100% takeover of GGP by Newcrest.
Maybe she would be better employed by Motley Fool?!
Proactive should be ashamed, IMHO!
Hi Jerry,
An interesting post. I think any bid (if one were made) on the lower figures you mention would stir the other big boys into action and it would prompt a bidding war.
Also, as alluded in an earlier post, GGP has a very high PI base. As long as we hold firm it’s unlikely a ‘cheap’ buy out could happen. The big question in that case is at what level do hands come out from under bums? Speaking as someone who was averaging up and buying in the 30’s I’ll still be sitting on mine!
Cheers
CF
Shaun Day’s options at 25p wouldn’t look to have been much incentive at 28p. I think he’d be sick as well.
GLA
I would be happy with any reasonable rise from here. Saying "we'd be robbed at anything below 50p" is a bit like Rees-Mogg complaining that he'll only make 10m quid instead of 20m. Who was that billionaire fellow complaining that people talked about selling out at 15p, only to offload all his GGP shares at 12p? His name was Beetroot or something.
At 50p, even if it isn't a fair price for Havieron alone, the vast majority of people here would offload at least half of their holdings. My own target is 84p but I have very little compared with some of people here, so I can afford to hold all the way to the target. If I had a few million shares, I'd definitely sell some of that at 50p.
Many thoughtful and interesting posts today and thanks for your thoughts Jerry.
Like many here, in order to understand my investments, I do my own research and read widely while monitoring the usual channels, including social media. In addition, having investments in Australia I regularly read the boards there. In my opinion, the proactive reference to "rife speculation" is unfounded unless it has been going-on in behind closed doors and so for the time being, I will be ignoring this rumour and will refrain from giving it any more airtime.
ATB
The reason why the so called low ball offer might be taken is the shareholding is predominantly retail. Mobday we have an offer of 50p what are you doing? . I expect 99% of retail sell and dont try and kid a kidder
I would probably take a £1 now with what we know now...but what if we get a few good drill results from another tenement, say Scallywag, then £1 would not be enough. As we progress with more information coming out the price keeps increasing.
Sojourner. It doesn’t have to be ‘rife’, for the article to have a point. Just the nature of the article is enough to get this convo going. Atm it’s a collective two fingers to NC which is what I hoped it would be. Any ceo is worried when their sp is low. Shaun and Sandeep must be concerned. If they aren’t then I think they are complacent.
I can't speak for anyone else Tymers, but I am not remotely interested in 50p.
ATB
Sorry Jerry, but, IMHO, it's totally unacceptable journalism. Everyone, is, of course, welcome to discuss it, but I won't be, because it's total rubbish, and not even worth considering further. GLA!
Jerry - very interesting post.
I have thought for a long time - since not long after the SP drop post scallywag results that it would make send for NC to start building a stake in GGP - but there so far is no evidence they have been doing this.
I would be devastated if NC submitted a low ball takeover offer for Greatland Gold - but probably being naive - think they could not get us on the cheap. And I think even 50p would be very cheap.
From the Nov 20 JV Update
"The Joint Venture Management Committee will be comprised of a maximum of five representatives. As at Establishment Date, Newcrest shall be entitled to appoint three representatives and Greatland shall be entitled to appoint two representatives to the Management Committee."
I would therefore expect GGP to have all the data that NC have about exactly what we have got at Haverion - NC could not legally withhold any information from the JV management committee? Currently GGP would be prohibited from releasing any Haverion information - this must come from NC as they are the JV managers.
But if NC launched a hostile takeover bid - GGP would be able to release all Haverion info as part of defending what they think would be a fair valuation?
However I also know NC are large and have much deeper pockets than GGP - who until the ore starts coming out of the ground have no income - and I'd be more gutted if it ended in a legal bun fight with only the corporate lawyers getting rich.
I do think that NC are undervalued and would be an attractive takeover or merger target for a bigger major, and if Haverion is as big as we think makes them even more attractive. What NC have also done at Cadia and Red Chris is also seriously impressive - and their expertise and knowledge also would make them an attractive merger target.
Anyway us PI's are small fry, and although our family have a 7 figure share holding held with HL - I don't even know how to vote - I suspect many PI's are the same.
Agree TT, sadly to many rainbow chasing muppets about. They will be believing motley fool articles next. Clumsy journalism at its worst, I expected better from proactive. This is a fantastic share to be involved in, a potentially life changing investment for anyone with patience and a 3-5 year view. Near term prospects are good, I still think we could at least double our share price by Xmas. But Mickeys £1.44 will not be realised until we are in production, in my humble and honest opinion.
GLA
Don't believe everything you read
CHAIN
"it's total rubbish, and not even worth considering further."
Thats a sloppy attitude to adopt.
"Shaun and Sandeep must be concerned. If they aren’t then I think they are complacent."
Absolutely correct.
"I also firmly believe that the unique PI power on the GGP register cannot be underestimated."
Nonesense, who do you guys think you are, John D. Rockefeller ?
I'm not saying this will happen, but if they want it to or any other big company wants it to, then it will happen and all the little PI's in the world will not stop it happening.
Its all about the price, but no amount of posturing on here will stop it.
Just be aware that its a real possibility, big business gets ugly when they want to.
To actually think it wont happen is wreckless and delusional.
To hope it won't happen is all we have.
I'm a great believer in the saying from the poem 'a little knowledge is a dangerous thing..............and drinking largely sobers us again'. Having, erroneously, railed against incompent lawyers for many years, only to discover that they as corrupt as a bunch as they were incompetent as individuals, I did gain a LITTLE knowledge, and became 'a *fool* when I became my client'.
This draws me to the question of the alleged possible takeover of NCM and the contract (the content of which I can only guess) between NCM and GGP. The existing contract of joint venture is between the aforesaid (sounding very legal) the owners of which are in turn the shareholders. The arguable questionable question therefore is IF NCM is taken over in full, not merely a majority holding, and an allowance for such an event has not been made, can the contract be voided by GGP as a cosignatory is now no longer a lawful entity ?
The further question is IF an allowance has been made for such an event, WHY?
The above could, more probable than possible, be a load of reverse parc, but I'm bored waiting to make my daughter a millionairess and not being a wise man with something to say, wished to say something. Stay Safe.
For those unsure, you should definitely ensure you can vote for any shares you have - especially if in a bad case scenario a low ball offer is made one day for GGP.
Must say given Jerry's background I'm a bit more concerned than I ever have been on the likelihood now - as I've considered it a very low probability event since mid 2020.
I understand with some of these RobinHood type apps, it may not be possible but usually you log into the online portal for most providers and there will be an option to enable your ability to vote.
Some providers such as Interactive Investor you can vote online and you receive an email alerting you to ballots and others such as iWeb send out a printed ballot to complete and return via post.
If you're not that technically proficient then phone up your service provider and ensure you are registered to vote if they provide that facility and ask them how you can vote once they enable the ability i.e. post/online and the process.
Personally it would take a Mickey level offer for me to part with mine - I still can't believe my luck sometimes as GGP was the first time I invested so much money into a risky explorer - but it felt so unique - and it has proven to be so in geological terms too.
Find out how to register your votes - for your own sakes :-))
Hi All. Good debate about the future of OUR Co. I for 1 would not accept an offer now, too many unknowns. The only problem i see is that at the moment we have no income and the financial world is a dog eat dog space. When there is $billions at stake players such as JPM will corrupt the game to suit their profits. With no income and corrupt bankers it may be a possibility that we are maneuvered into a position where we are wide open to a low ball offer that we will not be able to refuse. This is a highly unlikely outcome, but a possibility. ATB Speedy
The learner . .. " Anyway us PI's are small fry, ". not with this company we are not ! We hold 80% of the shares so we basically have control. A nice place to be .
Hi Dip666...
For as many shareholders there are like you and others that will dig their heels in, there will be 2-3 times more that will capitulate and thats a fact, many will run with their profit with long memories of what they have seen this past 10 months.
You will get people on here saying they wont fold, as soon as an offer comes in, they'll go down like a house of cards.
Don't underestimate human nature. everyone is not as strong as each other.
@Khrysos
"I also firmly believe that the unique PI power on the GGP register cannot be underestimated."
Nonesense, who do you guys think you are, John D. Rockefeller ?
Certainly not. But billions of shares held by PI's is significantly different to most £750m mcap companies me thinks. Like I said, not to be underestimated, as you are patently doing.
I'm all for regular Joe making a stand, or is that not allowed in today's society?
Hi Dodgemeister.
"I'm all for regular Joe making a stand, or is that not allowed in today's society?"
I agree with you. Regular Joe should make a stand, but history shows that most wont and dont, even when they say they will.
Nothing like a pound coin to turn a mans head.