Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I think results are better than they look. H1 last year was exceptional due to the factory shutdown in Q4 the previous year. H2 last year had operating profit of 60m so they've smashed that. The business didn't have much of a seasonal split pre-covid.
Peel Hunt just reiterated their £125 broker rating, I don't think we have much to worry about tbh. Fill your boots at these levels if you can.
Just wait for Henry Cavill to be cast as the Emperor, and for Netflix or HBO to start a 10 year TV show on the Horus Heresy, and they will be making massive revenue from rights and moving product.
Henry is a big Warhammer fan and was talking about it in the latest episode of the Graham Norton show
I guess you just answered my question above. Price factoring in hope that the IP will take off. Well, you can always keep your fingers crossed. I suppose it could happen. Makes this more of a punt than an investment, though.
Trading update inline with forecast but I see from the comments that existing investors hoped for more. With p/e still around 25 and growth flattening, this correction seems inevitable. I'd be interested to know where existing investors expect to see future growth coming from?
Just wait for Henry Cavill to be cast as the Emperor, and for Netflix or HBO to start a 10 year TV show on the Horus Heresy, and they will be making massive revenue from rights and moving product.
All in all I thought it was decent. Unsubstantiated drop based on variables outside the companies control.
I don't think anyone in their right mind was expecting pandemic levels of profit. It's not great, but neither is it awful, nor does it justify the SP drop.
Pathetic
I just think we need the imminent Trading Update to be positively received by the market…
We need some media report to kick start this stock again….
I have the consensus 8.3% revenue growth for FY2022, and around 5 to 6% of EBIT/net income growth for FY2022 too. My source is Tikr, I am not paying for Stockopedia/Bloomberg/etc.
ahhhh good catch - I'd missed/ forgotten that. Off the top of my head, I'd like to see £200-220M revenue and bearing in mind the pressures of cost rises, £90-100M PBT, but that's very ad hoc.
Hi Richred,
I was referring to the following statement, which was made as part of the dividend announcement on 18 November 2021:
"We expect to provide an update on our performance for the six months to 28 November 2021 in early December 2021."
So I do think we can expect some sort of update, either next week or the week after
Not necessarily - the proper half year will be reported around mid-Jan, I would only expect an update in the next week or so if there is a trading update - there was one last year early Dec but not one the year before. Last year's was because the results were well ahead of expectations - if they are in line then I wouldn't expect a trading update.
Hi everyone, the half year results (rough numbers, not full financial statements) should be published next week or the week after
What is everyone expecting in terms of revenue and PBT?
if GAW valuation is "aggresive growth style" at 24-25x P/E, what is the valuation that you consider to be the right one for its style? Just 16x P/E like the FTSE 250 index is at right now?
It does have a fairly aggresive growth style valuation which have not been in favour recently, especially stateside.
This is down in an accumulation phase. I can't see anything long term to suggest dumping a long term holding. Quite the opposite.
More lockdowns and dark nights = higher hobby sales. Next update should be upbeat which will catch the market off guard.
Been eyeing this for some time now, ever since the decline started.
Thought of selling but each time I have done so in the past I have ended up buying back at a higher price, which with the Christmas period coming must be a good time to watch the price rise as people buy their hopefully GAW presents.
If any of my risk plays come too fruition workshop at these levels for me is a absolute steal alas most of the markets have been poop this year so we will have to wait and see what happens in 2022 funny old game this investing is (:0/
NoLogic behind this in my opinion
Expectations being met. Some supply chain issues but this share is a gift at this price in my opinion ….
Any reason this is drifting down other than that burst pipe closing HQ?
Good work Peterson. Thanks
Correction. Sorry. It's even worse. It's 100p (2021) playing 140p (2020). So (40+25+35) vs (30+50+60)
Well at least the dividend piece of the puzzle has been answered. Another 35p to be paid in early January. Frankly the announcement is a tad disingenuous. "This will mean that total dividends declared so far in the 2021/22 financial year will be 100 pence per share (2020/21: 80 pence per share)". Well yes, except for the fact that the picture changes slightly when you note that in 2020 the equivalent dividend was only declared in mid-December with payment at end of Jan. Assuming no additional dividends are declared between now and the equivalent mid-Dec period the picture changes to 100p (2021) playing 130p (2020). At least we will know more with the trading update in early December. If I had to hazard a guess I would suspect that sales (despite all the talk of disgruntled fans) have actually held up quite well but costs continue to squeeze margin. At the very least supply chain difficulties are causing GAW to carry a higher level of stock into the key Xmas period, necessitating a higher level of working capital, which in turn explains the more stingy dividend pay outs versus 2020. So long as the problem is transitory and revenue momentum continues its not a LT problem. But I guess it explains why today's dividend has done nothing to boost the shares. All depends on the commentary in December. I remain a committed ultra LT holder and see current levels as an attractive price on an intrinsic basis. But am cognisant that the market may yet throw its toys out of the pram depending on what management announces in December. Will be interesting for sure