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Well at least the dividend piece of the puzzle has been answered. Another 35p to be paid in early January. Frankly the announcement is a tad disingenuous. "This will mean that total dividends declared so far in the 2021/22 financial year will be 100 pence per share (2020/21: 80 pence per share)". Well yes, except for the fact that the picture changes slightly when you note that in 2020 the equivalent dividend was only declared in mid-December with payment at end of Jan. Assuming no additional dividends are declared between now and the equivalent mid-Dec period the picture changes to 100p (2021) playing 130p (2020). At least we will know more with the trading update in early December. If I had to hazard a guess I would suspect that sales (despite all the talk of disgruntled fans) have actually held up quite well but costs continue to squeeze margin. At the very least supply chain difficulties are causing GAW to carry a higher level of stock into the key Xmas period, necessitating a higher level of working capital, which in turn explains the more stingy dividend pay outs versus 2020. So long as the problem is transitory and revenue momentum continues its not a LT problem. But I guess it explains why today's dividend has done nothing to boost the shares. All depends on the commentary in December. I remain a committed ultra LT holder and see current levels as an attractive price on an intrinsic basis. But am cognisant that the market may yet throw its toys out of the pram depending on what management announces in December. Will be interesting for sure
Peterson, I think you are right. The only reason I could find for the downtick was The Times article and it seems to have bounced back within the day. Sooo... shurgs shoulders. I got in here recently, when it last dipped down a bit and plan to hold for a bit. The business is robust, and I know geek culture, we always find money for our niche hobbies.
I wonder if it had something to do with the SELL tip in the Sunday Times. There will always be some who slavishly follow these tips. Sadly I don't have a link to the article but it was little more than a regurgitation of the recent negative broker piece i.e. company is alienating loyal players, management displays a contempt for the media, which smacks of arrogance & hubris, the share price has had a very strong run on a three year view so a de-rating / consolidation is inevitable, etc, etc. I would expect volatility to continue until the next Trading Statement (and news of the size of the further special dividend, as per last year when it came on 7 December) and / or first Half Year update in early Jan. To the extent these provide comfort around sales and costs GAW surely rally hard, as it is not expensive on a fundamental view particularly when compared to some of the crazy growth stock valuations out there. However, the opposite would presumably result in a further sharp retreat. No wonder the volatility in the price. Tug of war between Greed and fear, Greed and fear, as people position on either side. Who will be proved right? As a LT holder I have my own view and hope. But who knows...
Chart is WILD today.
I would say GAW is something to dollar cost average into a total holding you are comfortable with. It's short term trajectory is hard to decipher as markets wonder if it's all over for hobbies because we can go to the cinema again. You have to just leave management and the talent to do their thing and surprise us all with the future profits.
Buy in chunks over the next few months then come back in 5 years and see how you did.
Imagine, online GW tournaments taking place in the metaverse...
Mole_man99, spot on assessment. I'm a gamer myself and know the same behaviour / rhetoric from Magic The Gathering players. People will spend huge amounts of cash on these hobbies, because they are both a passion and a community to which they belong. People complain bitterly about changes to MTG yet Hasbro are banking record profits from MTG.
I got in on GAW yesterday and feel the company is strong. Bargain price at these levels.
Been hearing that argument against GAW for over 30 years. When I was actually playing the games in the early 90's, the shops always had a hard core of, ususally smelly, vocal minorities predicting the end of Games Workshop within a year.
GAW is doing brilliantly. Nerves over the end of covid leading to thoughts of gamers spending money elsewhere have mature investors who do not inderstand the company a little nervous.
All is well. Decent buy in price with this recent fall.
Frostbar, for my opinion it's not all that advanced. They are big enough to be now driven by the marketing, sales and legal teams rather than the design team, probably with a lot of people that don't play the games looking at product launch numbers and IP protection. They have been shooting themselves in the foot for the last few years after throwing a hail mary with AoS. WH+, primaris, codexes and such are designed to milk the whales, not provide a good experience to their loyal, invested fans. They will bleed their actual fanbase and not get them back, but its not about a takeover imo. Just bad business management.
It's definitely an excellent entry point. Bought value still looking strong vs sells.
Why is everyone Sh&tting the bed and selling, we were still £10 off the lowered estimate when published ??
Good time to buy in at this price (which i just did myself). Excellent upside looking at the chart.
Seems super overdone to me too.
Drops seems well overdone. 1 broker has dropped their tp to £125 and reiterated buy. 7.5% drop seems madness.
Looking at the company long term will their supply chain be a factor over the next 5 years? 3d printing will more than likely negatively affect sales of physical product over the medium term and Warhammer+ has been poorly managed from its inception,I can't see the company making profits from these areas in the future. My main worry is the IP of the company,I can definitely see GW as the next marvel once marvel are out of ideas but my main concern is that the market gw are aiming at isn't right for the grimdark nature of their flagship 40k product. Age of sigmar doesn't have the traction to be a success on the scale of 40k. 30k may become an equivalent but it lacks the storyline depth needed to become a major product line. In my view the cost charged to the consumer,and hence profit extracted, is only sustainable if said consumer is an adult with disposable income. These customers are attracted to gw products in large part by their storylines and aesthetic. They have grown up with games workshop and their interest was sparked by the John Blanche inspired IP of the 80's and 90's not the primaris and poorly executed comicbook products we have seen recently. In my view the artwork, physical products, storyline and copyright protection point to a planned company sale in the near-medium term and that if this does not take place then the company will turn out to have put all of its eggs into the wrong basket of consumers. Having said this,if the company can make it work then the returns to them will dwarf those marvel has made. If it does work I think it will become a larger franchise than star wars,the IP has infinitely more potential and could easily run for decades.
Fair comment every share I’ve got is on the decline thought this year would be a belter with recovery play looking like I should have gone clean in January aye ho 2023 now for me back to the drawing board (:0(
Absolutely pants we need a rns to explain things cmon bod. From £120 plus to this please inform your loyal investors what’s happening we spose to be coming into our busiest period give us a clue please (:0(
Another Chinese property developer hit trouble Fantasia, this time they formally defaulted as they failed to pay a maturing bond. So contagion is appearing to spread in Chinese real estate developers, how much of this will effect the rest of the world is up for debate. It will effect Chinese growth though. Plus gas prices have gone up again and 10 year gilt rates are rising as fears of inflation and interest rate rises are on the march. Plus I think concerns on the supply chain issues are weighing heavily on GW atm.
Sorry for the gloomy post.
What is going on in the world? All shares taking a hammering?
Suppy chain is my only worry here.
It's still one of the best shares to hold long term.
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I bought a few extra once they dropped under £100 - fingers crossed I called it - my OCD is hoping to flip them in a short ish time frame to round up my holding to a neater number of shares :)
I would buy for sure if I had any dry powder……
Not me for sure will always hold but very disappointed with years s/p surly a rebound on the cards???
I don't have many more investments that pay 235.00p per share over 12 they play safe and pay fair.
Dividends are always variable here, they've got no interest in pleasing the market so it tends to just be whatever cash they have lying around. If they've invested in some new factory equipment, or increasing stock, or animations for Warhammer+, then they might have less cash available this month. They also didn't pay a dividend between Jan 2020 and Aug 2020 due to COVID uncertainty so the 50p this time last year could have been a bit of a catch up.
It's not a profit warning, trading was in-line with management expectations, they just don't like saying what those expectations are which is the annoying part. They could be the same as broker forecasts but they could be a bit higher.
Would have made sense to realise that asd they didn't want to give TU at the AGM it wouldn't be especially good news (and therefore sold) yesterday.
But I didn't so continue to hold.
Brief and to the point - "we're doing as well as we expected. Challenges from logistics. Here's your dividend".