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right!
Ksp747, I don’t think anything above 400 is a buy, there’s further to fall
Nothing has changed from the last results - The shares were down 50% at the time of results. In the last 5 days another 15% makes no sense. Nothing has dramatically changed in the company's fundamentals or Fin position. I see it has a good entry point for some of the new investors. Time will tell
Further, what I can't understand is why after the huge success of Elite Dangerous, Planet Coaster & Planet Zoo they completely abandoned developing their own IP in favour of licensing deals. Planet Zoo was released in November 2019, let's assume the mooted FY24 management simulation game comes out in November 2024, that will be a gap of 5 years where they have delivered very little of note. Why change something so dramatically when it wasn't broken?
Good post StanAccy. Based on the anaemic to non existent pipeline I don't see much chance of them hitting the £113m revenue / £37m EBITDA target in FY23, or even flat on wherever 2022 finishes. Their first shot at an F1 game has been poorly received and appears to have created negative sentiment in the gaming community. At $55 you have to wonder how many will bother with a 2023 title unless it receives rave reviews?
This is a good read on what makes a successful licensed game; https://www.gamesindustry.biz/unlocking-the-secrets-of-a-successful-licensed-game
IMO it's clear that the F1 effort failed because it wasn't fully finished in time for the launch slot & there was zero room for manoeuvre so they had to release something half cut. Maybe they'll learn the lesson for 2023 but they are on the back foot now.
Their first Warhammer game has also faired poorly in comparison to recent Fatshark versions and at rating of 79% again doesn't really cut the mustard for long term success vs previous entries. My suspicion is that the second attempt will perform in a similar way as it's just not FDEV's forte.
Frontier foundry appears dead in the water, you have to question whether it's had sufficient investment and whether cutting it after just 8 games is foolish, especially in light of the yawning gap in larger titles.
So that leaves the FY25 "own-IP creative management simulation game." as the next realistic catalyst, although no clue yet if it's H1 or H2 FY25. In the meantime if things play out as I suspect, there is at least a year of flat to declining top line revenue... it's no wonder the share price is still falling, under £3 could be on this summer if nothing changes, it feels like an easy short.
Be realistic
They need one of the following to happen -
* A new game currently in development to be a roaring success
* A current game franchise to be re-energised due to an update or add on pack
* Continue to cut costs and show an improved profit in next results
* Sell off any struggling titles and use the funds to buy new titles and/ or companies for under market value
* move into new areas or potential new revenue sources from the likes of in game advertising, etc
Management need to really earn their wages in the next 9 months, past performance won’t be acceptable in a market that has started to lose faith in their ability
I doubt it
The Board's expectation for revenue for FY23 of £100 million to £114 million, would deliver an IFRS operating profit in the range £2 million to £10 million.
Is this DOG of a share ever going to move upwards
Jefferies puts FDEV to HOLD ( Hold is fine we can go up from hold to buy.
GL all
FDEV is now at its lowest share price in more than 5 years. IMO all bad news are behind us now and it is one those opportunities where the SP could spike up very quickly as the number of issued shares is only 39.4 million. In addition FDEV is one of the few decent gaming stocks still not taken over with GAW. It could just be a question of time before a RNS lands on a takeover bid.
Another director buy today ok small but still positive . Its all good news for Frontier.
GL all
IMO the results showed how the Trading Update was so conservative. Things will definitely improve very soon.
"Parents buying more toys and games for themselves"
hTTps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64386885
I cant thank you enough for your enlightnig post BillB .......... have a good day
Do you honestly believe this is going back to to the 30 quid it was at, not that long ago? I paid about 1048p about three years ago and kept them for about 18 months. When I sold them, I thought they were too expensive. I couldn't believe it when they carried on rising. I now avoid shares that don't pay a dividend. After 10 years, a share that doesn't isn't really investable IMHO.
Definitely director buys it’s all in the wording and it says buys...
If its awards they use wording like acquired. We just need to sit tight and wait.
I was in this share some years back and sold out for a decent profit and to my astonishment it kept on going up and up.
I felt the drop was overdone and a golden opportunity to get back in. I can’t say that it will get back to the heady days of £30 a share but I can see £10 asa minimun which is the next major resistance point.
Just sit back and wait
Take it from me, they were buys, it is a different wording for legality purposes when shares are awarded.
That would be lovely, but … all 3 people bought on exactly the same day (20 jan) and volumes of 10k, 10k and 5k. Reads to me like share awards.
It looks to me that the directors are buying in at this price because they believe that the company has a good future and the SP will go up.
Directors are not dissimilar to us private investors they like to buy low and sell high.
They do obviously have a huge inside knowledge that we do not have
Below is an extract taken from the London stock exchange
As a general rule, Director/PDMR Shareholding announcements that show substantial insider buying activity are a bullish signal. If corporate insiders are buying, it shows that they are confident about the future and expect the company’s share price to rise.
Fau they bought the shares, otherwise it would say performance related rewards
I don’t think it’s directors buying shares - I think it’s part of their rewards package. However - given the results of the value of the share, how much it’s declined and the lack of anything positive - why are they being allocated shares?! Rewards are supposed to be weighted on performance - NOT just handed out as freebies.
Well stumbled on this beauty at the weekend and bought in at 475 this morning. Looks like a proper falling knife, but the revenue and normal profit figures look fair value (cheap for the sector?). If they can get F1 manager right, massive grown potential with F1 leaning heavily into the USA . GLA
I see upside here ........ Directors buying shares see todays RNS
Also F1 season starts in March sales could go up then . People watching F1 will want to play the simulation, hopefully leading to more sales.
Gl all
I just jumped back in again, great trading share at the moment, one of these days it will bounce and keep on going to 700p. I like what I see with this company and the SP represents great value.
One of my 3 large buys just showed as a sell. Happens plenty of times. Nicely hocked up on this now.