Member Info for squadraazzura

Could this late spike be a signal an initial offer is on the table ?

Liontrust now owns 7,120,435 shares = 7.868%.

Disclosure table published with 2 known interested parties and possible bidders.

Who is next ? ...

A bidding war on the horizon ? A possibiity.

This is only the first bidder - Matthew Riley founder of Daisy Comms, a serial entrepreneur.

They always offer the lowest bid possible to see the reaction.

Then what about the others such as Providence etc... ?

There will probably be other bidders, with better offers.

IMO there will be a biding war.

Mind you this is only the first bidder.

There are more to follow ...

IMO for such a cashe generative business, a fair offer should be between £13.5 and £14.5.

A short while ago, it was over £16 - When revenue and profit were far much lower.

Here is no smoke without fire.

I don't think management will accept anything short of £13.5 - £14.5.

The business is sound with a recent excellent update, cash generative, pays a steady dividend and growing via Germany, the largest European economy and the third in the world (Japan being the 4th).

So IMO £14 should be the bare minimum for such an undervalued business.

Funds are buying (schroders, Gresham etc.). Possibly a tree shake to get the maximum out of it.

Will remain invested till the end and regardless.

A decent company to be invested in anyway.

Tuesday the 5th of May will be the last day of the 4 week Offer Period.

Could this recent drop be a good opportunity to buy ?

Share price very sensitive to any sell/buy action as the total number of issued share capital is going down (90.7 million with share buybacks) - Thus the spiky behaviour.

hTTps://telconews.com.au/story/gamma-launches-apac-push-with-australia-nz-focus

Interesting read regarding a fair offer price.

It seems the 5th of May will be the last day of the offer period (28 days from 7th of April).

hTTps://seekingalpha.com/article/4892401-gamma-communications-soon-to-be-acquired-if-so-whats-a-fair-price

Aberdeen Group now declaring owning 3,393,128 shares or 3.73%.

Gama is an excellent business generating cash, making a decent profit with a steady dividend and growing with acquisitions.

So logically, any interested party will only be in a winning position.

This is why there will probably be a bidding war.

Gamma Financials for the last 5 years:

2025: Revenue was £645.8 million, with a gross profit of £348.2 million

2024: Revenue was £579.4 million, with a gross profit of £300.3 million.

2023: Revenue was £521.7 million, with a gross profit of £267.2 million.

2022: Revenue was £484.6 million, with a gross profit of £247.7 million.

2021: Revenue was £447.7 million, with a gross profit of £228.5 million.

National Farmers Union purhased 3,192,545 shares, now holding 3.513%.

IMO Takeover Anouncement could be this week or just before the end of April, the latest.

I was hoping it would hit £9 and it did.

If it hoovers around £9.5 - £10, the minimum offer would be at least between £13 - £14 per share.

This is wihout adding any possible bidding war as there are many interested parties which could take it over £15 ...

And the higher bidder will be the winner.

Isn't Gamma market cap worth more than a £Billion for the medium to long term when we consider its excellent cash generation, its technology, its strong growth in Germany and what it can actually deliver ?

Avalue:

IMO the offer price, if any, will be the closing price of the last Business Day before the date of the Announcement.

So if we consider a 40% premium to any closing price, say for example, £9 a share, the offer price should be £12.6 per share.

At present, the sp recovery may take it at higher levels leading to higher closing/offer prices.

If it closes at £10 the day before the announcement, the offer price will be £14 and so on.

If the premium is lower, say 35%, the final sp offers will be:

£12.15 at £9 closing price = £1.1 Billion

£13.5 at £10 closing price = £1.23 Billion

Avalueinvester:

Could go beyond £9 before the wekend...

So IMO £10 per share or 910 million for such a valuable company won't fit any financial logic.

Agree that the minimum will be £12 with a top end at £15.

Because of "a number of interested counterparties", there could even be a bidding war, pushing the sp at new highs we haven't seen for some years.

This happened with Spectris with KKR & Co. Inc last year.

Gamma is almost debt free and cash generative compared to a few past takeovers.

I feel a RNS telling us the company is taken over at £1.3 Billion = £14+ can land on us anytime.

Gamma has excellent recurring revenue, steady dividend and cash generation.

Who would miss such a cash cow ? ...

When Blue Prism, still not making a profit, was taken over at £1.24B or £12.75 a share, I can easily see Gamma, an excellent business, taken over around £1.35B or roughly £15 a share