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Afternoon Eurasianites
First a reminder of the INDEPENDENT Fitch research note, published on Ortex this week in regard to the Russian mining landscape;
-----------------abridged-----------------
MAIN PLAYERS
The mining sector in Russia is highly consolidated, with only a handful of companies accounting for the main share of domestic output.
Norilsk Nickel is the country's largest metals producer. The company accounts for the lion's share (more than 90%) of domestic nickel output. In January 2021, the firm joined the Responsible Sourcing Blockchain Network (RSBN) built on IBM blockchain technology which helps improve transparency in the mineral supply chain. In 2020, the firm's Russian nickel operations increased 4.0% y-o-y to 172kt.
The country's palladium and platinum subsectors will rely on
>>>> Eurasia Mining
and Polymetal International in the coming years for
>>>> production growth
--------ends---------
The Company;
Heavily incentivised BOD. Dmitry holding 465 million shares, more than II nominees according to EUAs website. DS initial investment many years ago according to video interviews. "shirty mileon" (30million). 2 successful private placements executed. Company is sat in a cash liquid position fully funded for Rosgeo obligations. Potential buyer completed DD. Company progressing several transactions concurrently. JORC report imminent. License transfers imminent.
Add these parties;
UBS. DLA Piper. CKE. Absolute Precision. SP Angel. RosGeo. Gipronikel. Wardell Armstrong. Tamerlan and the Japanese connections. Konstantin and the RosGeo connections. Alexander and the Norilsk Nickel connections..... plus many more of course.
Consider;
NN on the doorstep. Published evidence of a massive clean up going on in the wider Kola district. A new, doubled capacity, esg friendly smelt facility being built in Monchegorsk. Investment active in the area.
Cont…
…Part2
Recently;
Off take partners identified by NN in sales pipelines over the border in Finland for vertically integrated battery metals value chain (from NN investor day presentation). Infrastructure being upgraded for the big copper project. RSBN Blockchain project gaining traction. NN signing a 5/10 Yr collaboration deal and agreeing Ni/Cu/pgm offtakes with Russian Platinium (NN press release 2/12).
Generally;
Gov backing for Arctic region tax breaks. Indigenous populations being actively supported. Emissions being drastically cut. AP and drilling contractors on the case for months working for RosGeo.
Positioning;
All this stuff going on whilst there's a widely held market belief of an impending deficit in battery metals (items in our basket) and a global commodity SUPER CYCLE about to kick off.
MT, flanks and the Rosgeo JV assets are geographically slap bang, bullseye central to an area that appears (fairly conclusively) to be subject to having significant financial, political and engineering resources thrown at it.
EUAs assets seem to be positioned in the perfect place at the perfect time both in terms of geography and market cycles; as eluded to by Fitch research note above.
This feels like owning a sweet shop next to a school... Before the school's even been built.
Diversity;
Meanwhile WK is actively being scaled up (x3 wash plants, flanks extension approved and permitted for 365 day stripping) providing an income and potential interim sales pipeline. Satellite image analysis kindly provided by a1ex show continued expansion. Room to grow at WK.
The elephant in the room; risk
Disclaimer - look away if you have rose tinted spectacles on. Any number of things can potentially go wrong. This is being posted in the interests of a balanced perspective.
Of course there are risks. Anyone not considering the potential for downside, no matter how unlikely or small, is foolhardy imo. Please make your own mind up but to me there is an element of geopolitical risk here. Where there's big money involved there’s usually some level of manipulation.
There is always a risk of ANY company going private or shifting its listing destination. This is an AIM listed stock; it carries by its nature elevated risk. The value of any publicity listed stock can go down as well as up. General bull/bear global market sentiment swings. Impacts of Covid 19.
According to Morningstar data- insi holdings have displayed net drops last 2 months running. MStar Managed Fund exposure is not significantly increasing (private US II placings aside). MCSI rebalance static. There is a risk (slim) that the unseen JORC report is flat or underwhelming.
Standard M+A business disclaimer:- "Until a transaction is finally concluded there can be no certainty that a transaction will occur or on what terms." RNS 28/10.
Cont…..
….Part 3
Time factor;
This is a large complex company now, with multiple assets all at varying positions of development. (multiple Lasonde curves). The addition of Rosgeo assets has added a new dimension to potential value and time scales. There could be multiple bidding parties (alluded to in RNSs) that each want different sub-sets of the assets. The desire for these subsets may be causing conflict to proposals by each party. These bidders may be consortiums. This makes negotiations complex and time consuming. Also consider the whole world has slowed down due to C19. It is generally taking longer to achieve things.
Conclusion ;
The BoD want the best deal. They have a desire to maximise value for shareholders.
0.5p, 14p, 23.25p, 26.5p, 45p, 78p, £1.03, £3.50, £35…. Simply Wall Street’s fantasy figure
who knows?
Given the above, on balance, I propose the bull case out strips the bear here.
Personal perspective ;
I've de-risked my position. Overall taken out more value (£) than I put in. Still sat with a modest 6 fig holding. If it goes to zero (unlikely) then I'm up ~40%.
Personally I don't really care how long it takes now. Who's shorting. Who's holding. Who's selling. What the scam pundits on twitter make up. What the MMs do. Whether I have pirate blood in my veins ;) Etc etc
Due diligence complete;
AIMHO. Certainly NOT investment advice. DYOR of course.
Peace out lovelies x I wish you well with your investment.
ATB LB (cutlas secreted about my person arrgggghhh)
LB, top post. They’re the facts laid out for all to see.:-)
LB. Thanks for the posts .The only question to be asked is ---why is the share price so low with all those lovely assets.?
Or the age old question pardiff " why are we here " ?? or more accurately in your case " why are you here " ??? :) I could have a guess but its too easy :)
good balanced view thanks
So despite being one of the most 'researched' rampers, you have 'derisked', meaning you must believe there is a significant degree of risk here. You have made your profit at the expense of greater fools and are now sitting pretty no matter what happens. Yet you are telling the masses of PIs sitting on higher averages to keep holding, in the full knowledge that they are essentially gambling, while you have banked your winnings. Of course.
Could agree more Madstork !
Bruno007
Well said
That is very honest post
Pot calling the kettle black, you derisked your short 4-6months ago
GLA
I’m really pleased that you concur ! Lol
Here would we be without a little humour eh !
All the best …
Of course TMS if he bought at less than a penny then taking 40% profit out plus his initial investment and leaving a 6 figure shareholding actually isn’t that much and I am sure that he would rather wait for the real gains otherwise why leave any in but I do appreciate that from your perspective it is better to try and sling some mud.
CAW1: Actually I *increased* my short several months ago, as I posted. I have always been entirely open and transparent with my positioning and reasoning.
Can you say the same about the chief rampers here? Those who have taken huge profit while encouraging other PIs to gamble their savings on what, in common with all AIM junior resource cos is still an incredibly risky punt even if you do not believe the 'sale' to be a spoof.
Keep on increasing it TMS, you think it’s worth around £10m, keep going. Plenty more gains for you here with your short :-)
trading4good:
I have been absolutely clear about my position and reasoning ever since I opened my short a year ago. I have never once changed tack, and when I have temporarily reduced (as I did on the Churakov dump) I have posted accordingly. If that''s being 'dishonest' then I would love to see what you'd define as being honest!
TMS - my view is generally closer to yours, but give him credit for saying he doesn't care if it goes to pot as he will still be up. Thats good strategy. However, agree with you that the is far from certain and whenever there is cloak and dagger business on AIM, it always leads to massive disappointment for the punters.
TheMadStork Premium Member
Posted in: EUA
Posts: 3,055
Price: 25.75
No Opinion
RE: Oversold09 Mar 2021 11:37
My average on the short is 40p.
I closed half of my short on the afternoon of Churakov's share dump. The other half is still open and the only reason I haven't added to it is that Spreadex is not accepting any new trades in EUA, short or long.
GLA
The other day it was banging on on twitter about the company going private LOL!
And more drivel on ADVFN the other day about Dmitry selling (with no proof of course) which to be fair made a change from the 6 monthly (false) joke that Queeld had been selling?
If you bother to read the history of what this clown says you will see it for the comedian it really is.
TMS needs to look at the liquidation over the last few days in BTC .....this is what is coming to you with your short in EUA :) have a good day sir ...
Eurasia Mining Plc.... is pleased to announce that it has signed a LEGALLY BINDING agreement ("Rosgeo Agreement") to create a new joint venture (the "JV") with Russian state-owned company Rosgeo....
LEGALLY.
BINDING.
An analysis of remuneration for each Director of the Company in 2020:
Salaries and allowances/ Directors fees (£)
C. Schaffalitzky Executive Chairman 85,008 –
J. Nieuwenhuys Executive Director 107,067 –
I. Rawlinson Non-Executive Director – 17,500
G. FitzGerald Non-Executive Director – 28,750
D. Suschov Non-Executive Director – 16,250
I make that £254,575 between the 5 of them. I'd say that's good value for shareholders.....
No options issued.
Judgemental hasn’t got a clue. Literally making it up as he goes along. He’s like a less funny Gecko.
GLA
I liked reading Gecko's posts, he was funny! Haven't read anything from him in a while.
1sttime,,
Unlike you, you duplicitous, sanctimonious know all.