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Those warrants are very very generous, 1 to 1 at 3p...
Well yeah, as with what happens with most placings the Shareprice will tumble to the or below the placing price soon enough. (probably at 12:30).
I did say earlier that the ESIA will likely be many many months away. Judging off past performance that is. Which is all we have to go off really.
Unless the dckheads running the company know something we dont.
If it really was only ‘weeks’, we would’ve/could’ve waited and raised at a higher price. Nope, the ESIA will be months, and the board knows it.
Thats $2.175 million.
chisler
GSM and GQC are getting $2,175 worth of cheap shares thats what i think Matador.
If one was to put a positive spin on it one could say our " strategic investers " are getting first bight at cherry before the ESIA lands in the " coming weeks ."
chisler
Why on earth would I get involved in the REX offering and buy at 1.75p? The s.p will be below that soon, possibly today even. Graham Clarke has ruined this company.
We’re now at the stage of raising at just over 10% of that figure. The guy is a charlatan and should be out.
It’s a shambles! We should never have been in this position and it’s all down to bad leadership. I remember many moons ago, when GC stated that if another raise was needed, he didn’t think it would be under 15p…
What do you all think of that?
The quarterly update must land next week. Clarity is required.
True but the annual report is backwards looking and the Q1 report can repeat the last RNS and say they have reapplied. Can say add little as they want really.
They cannot escape some sort of update in April given Q1 report due plus Annual Report to be published by EOM.
Crucially we will better understand cash runway and if they can indeed avoid the need to seek bridging funds whilst they wait this one out.
The frustrations, as this continues to drift, coupled with a shot small cap market where any positive news gets heavily sold into is what SP if the permit lands tomorrow; instincts are one will be able to pick up stock for no more than 5p initially.
Suspect are lot are therefore sitting on hands waiting for AR and preferring the ESIA in the back pocket given risk reward.
Hold yer nerve next week when we hover in the 1s. I've no choice now...hold for gold or a cold and all that...
August is 90 days plus a few weeks from the RNS date.
Who knows what's going on behind the scenes. The wait is painful. I feel like I've just wasted 3 years of investing with this stock when I could have made considerable gains elsewhere. I'm not prepared to lose my nerve at this stage in the game having waited this long. The last RNS was so vague it didn't give any idea of timelines going forward, not even the word 'imminent' was mentioned. Qtr 1 has now been and gone, surely we must have a decision in Qtr 2.
What's going on here - the silence is deafening. There must be some news filtering through as to where we are at with the ESIA?
A sloth would have got more done in the time GC has been in charge . 🤣
I bet if you went round GCs house and he said “ do you want a sandwich ? “ I reckon he’d be gone in the kitchen for 6 hours . . ( that’s if he gets eisa to build one )
When
Is this godforsaken potash going to be produced .,?
How does GC become an expert in the industry if all the jobs take so long . ??
Add his time here onto his Sirius days where nothing got achieved there and it’s probably 8 yrs since he done anything worthwhile or am
I missing something . ? ( I have no
Idea what achievements GC has ever done if someone wants to fill me in )
AJ27
Never in the field of company endeavour have so many companies failed to meet forecast capital payback time frames.
And I do not expect EML to buck this trend. Then, as I alluded to, after debt paid of, there is capital reqiured for business expansion, MnA, new plant, machinery, etc, etc, The list goes on and on. Something else where companies prefer to use surplus cash is Share Buyback programmes. It benefits SH's in reducing no of shares in issue, so is an obvious benefit when divis are eventually paid, and equally as important, taxation benefits. 20 years may have been conservative, but definitely no divis within 10 years. Hope we are both around at that time to continue the debate.
Even using the old numbers the project had a 2.6 year capital payback so 20 years until dividends is beyond conservative.
Wheresallthemoney.
Divis will only be paid to SH's when the mine is up and running, profitable and has cleared majority of debt, and has all the necessary assets to mine for 20,30 years. t may also want to venture into the acquisitions market. The timescale for divis is therefore at least 15/20 years away. If, as I suggested, the sp attains a MC in line with the profitability statements issued by the Company, then it will be around the £2.30ps mark. I would expect a yearly divi of 15p ps. Anyone buying in now, and holding for 15/20 years would then have to take into account the actual values of 2p and £2.30 after inflation and taxation. IOW, it is not as good as the figures suggest at first glance.
Good post Testpack, the only thing I would say is that surely in the worst case scenario insolvency can easily be avoided by just cutting costs, preserving cash by mothballing the project if they really had too rather than the downside risk you state. The company after all has no debt and could easily do a mini raise to keep the lights on if they really had too. They do after all hold the licences, the mining permit and the new process IP, which would be worth something. Surely it makes sense for all parties to get this project rolling now anyway.
Hi testpack, thanks for your input. Given those figures, what would you expect the half yearly divi's to be around?
I believe there are only 2 'near term' outcomes, first, no EISA award and the company files for bankruptcy because of lack of cash. No reason for OCP or any other party to act as White Knight, since a 'Firesale' will be a more cost effective solution.
second option is award of EISA, and an immediate rerate of sp to ?. I have posted a year or so ago, when sp was a higher, that EISA would give a 15p sp , based on the '2 year run up' to production and a probable£2.30 sp based on projected revenues. Since nothing will have changed, except for the positive elements provided by KMA and some 'better' more expensive saleable products, then 15 p is still a 'target' sp, albeit more likely attainable after a month or so after EISA award. I reason this since there will have to be the inevitable fund raise following award of EISA, and this will diminish the fervour to buy immediately after award. I 'guess' that 7p is a more realistic target immediately following award.
at 2p, with '2 month target' of 15p following award, there is a 13p upside and only a 2p downside. It is irrelevant if you buying at 2p now or have bought higher). My thought is that it is more 'likely than not' to be awarded following return of decision to local and the new KMA process. I therefore believe it is better than a 50:50 chance of approval, and a 750% gain. A no brainer. Other investors will have a different probability of EISA approval, and can do their own maths. A decision not to 'buy' can only be made if their probability is 7.5 /1 against award.
Naturally, by my reasoning I should be 'going all in'. I already have 'bought back in', and will 'invest' a further £1k, and my final 'investment' will be what I am prepared to lose, which should be the 'mantra' for all investment decisions; Only invest what you can afford, and are prepared to lose.