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Hi , the next two year wait period is key and they should be filling this wait time with plenty of communication., briefings , and ideally a couple of deals. Instead total silence and the markets don’t like dead periods filled by nothing . It’s always been a very conservative company and this ceo seems to be taking that to the next level . Trident royalties although much smaller is ten times better at communications/ briefings
I agree Sam. I do like the ECOR portfolio when looking ahead 24 months or so. They've got a very attractive nickel/copper portfolio. But I don't have much faith in MBL, and my position here reflects that.
No new royalties acquired recently and no news updates. Share price languishing. I hope the ceo is up to the task . I am beginning to wonder
Https://total-market-solutions.com/2023/12/20-mining-companies-for-2024-part-i-a-e/
...below 100p. not sure why my messages are being concatenated. must be AI!
...at
If we have a closing price of 96p sometime this week, perhaps a reversal is in place. at 96p currently, let's see how much it closes tonight.
comforting to see Marc Bishop still buying shares at
CEO is still buying
following transactions by Marc Bishop Lafleche, Chief Executive Officer of the Company.
From 15 Dec 2023 to 18 Dec 2023, Mr. Bishop Lafleche acquired 57,900 ordinary shares at an average approximate price of 89.01p per share.
Secular downtrend on the full one year chart, so an equity to treat with caution. However today , ecora, has risen above the last 2 price bottoms, highest at 85.9, so if ecora, can close above that price level , it would restore chart stability. Contributing to the positive view are positive divergence in the various chart indicators , macd,rsi and roc. Target would be the last higher price peak, which would require to be overcome to change to an uptrend status.
Personally I expect Ecora to sell the Dugbe royalty. It'll be quite attractive to some of the precious metals royalty players. It's a nice asset, but doesn't fit into the Ecora 'energy transition' portfolio going forward.
Added some shares today. A good looking portfolio if you zoom out 18-24 months. I'm prepared to wait.
Thanks Urai5.
I was a shareholder in Anglo Pacific but sold out about 165p some time ago.
I'm back now with Ecora, buying too early @ 108p!
CG
Very good question @ChesterGreen
Since I am (newly) invested in Ecora Resources, I wanted this matter clarified. Simple answer: Yes, Ecora Resources (still) owns a 2% NSR on the Dugbe Project in Liberia. See PDF page 45 (or page 43 in the annual report):
https://www.ecora-resources.com/application/files/8816/8019/2368/230329_ECOR_AR22_FINAL.pdf
Anglo Pacific acquired the 2% NSR from Hummingbird Resources in 2012 for $15m. There is a feasibility study (NI43-101) from 2022 for the Dugbe project. It is available on the Pasofino Gold website.
pdf Page 371: Commercial royalty % of Gross Revenue 2. This is the royalty from Ecora Resources.
pdf page 375: 22.15 ROYALTY (COMMERCIAL)
A commercial royalty payable to Anglo Pacific was included in the assessment and is equivalent to 2% of gross revenue.
At an average of 160koz Au p.a. (14 year LoM) and a gold price of $2,000/oz, the 2% would be around $6 million.
The Dugbe project now belongs 100% to Pasofino Gold:
https://www.pasofinogold.com/news/news-details/2023/Pasofino-Gold-Announces-the-Acquisition-of-the-Remaining-Interest-in-the-Dugbe-Gold-Project/default.aspx
In addition to the (recent) copper deals, Vale's Voisey's Bay cobalt stream is a core investment of Ecora Resources. The general conditions are as follows:
- APG entitled to 22.82% of total cobalt produced,
- Ongoing payment of 18% of the cobalt reference price,
This is 70% of the deal that was concluded by ex Cobalt27 in 2018 for USD 300m. Ecora paid USD 205m for the 70%. With the current price of 0.88 GBP, the market cap in USD is 286m USD.
In 2022 the bill looked like this:
Ecora received 19 deliveries of cobalt during 2022 which totaled 380Kt of cobalt. (70% of which goes to Ecora). Total stream revenue from this cobalt was $18.8m and, after
cost of sales, generated $14.6m of net portfolio contribution. An average price of $32/lb was achieved
Formula 2022:
380t delivery for entire stream. Ecora share 70%: 266t or 586,530lb at $32/lb: $18.8m. Of this 18.8m, Ecora had to pay 18%: $3.4m. Less storage and selling costs of $0.8m. Net $14.6m.
Voisey’s Bay is currently transitioning from open pit to underground. From 2026, full production of 2,600 tons and a payability of 93.3% should be achieved. According to the deal, Vale must reach 85% of Name Plate capacity by the end of 2025, i.e. around 2,210 tons. Otherwise there will be refunds or an increase in the stream share. The good thing is: Ecora would not have to be on the front line fighting for compensation. WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals) would take over this, having secured a larger share in 2018.
Based on the billing as of 2022 and the exact conditions of the deal, the following parameters arise:
- Full production of cobalt 2,600t
- Minimum production from 2026 2,210t
- Payability 93.3%
- Ecora share 22.82%
- Purchase price 18%
- Storage and sales costs 4.3%
The all-important factor now is of course the cobalt price. Currently 15/lb. On the occasion of the deal, assumption of 20$/lb and necessary spot price, so that, for example, Jervois only wants to put the completed primary cobalt mine in Idaho (USA) into operation when the long-term cobalt price averages 25$/lb.
The Excel sheet calculates the following contributions ex cobalt stream in favor of Ecora from 2026 with 85% mining output, each with the corresponding cobalt price:
$15/lb: $12m net
$20/lb: $16m net
$25/lb: $20m net
Once the UG mine reaches full capacity at 100%, net revenues increase by 18%. At a price of $25/lb, that would be $23.6m. Yes, it's a good deal; the cobalt price will recover.
urai5
In Liberia.
Does anyone with a long memory remember Anglo Pacific buying a NSR from Hummingbird (HUM) for $15m in 2019, I think?
HUM seem to have regained control of the project.
Any chance of getting the investment back?
Is it only me or does it seem that the huge cobalt investment was not such a good move given the way prices have gone ? Sam
Hi Interesting, At the time I thought our change of name to Ecora was showing lack of thought and creativity. Perhaps AI was responsible LOL
An article linked to Ecora Resources PLC on Google Finance comes from InvestorsObserver and mentions amongst other things that ECOR has an SP of $91.90 and is listed amongst the 'Medical Devices Industries' in the S&P500.
A link to their more expansive observations reveals that they are discussing Electrocore Inc -ECOR - US version!
I've long thought that AI contributes a lot to this, at times, comedic circus that is Financial Markets, and if I'm correct, isn't performing it's actions as well as it should. We were better informed back in the day, in the hands of what Nigel Lawson described as 'teenage scribblers!'
A year ago, USD$51509.24.
2 months ago, USD$32981.88
1 month ago, USD$32982.75
Currently, USD$33,420.00
If cobalt rises to USD$35,000/t I think ECOR will likely be in the clear.
*from general Googling.
Orion will likely be looking to seel their net smelter royalty over HZM's Araguaia project, so ECOR and a couple of others would be natural buyers of that.
I don't think HZM will be looking to encumber the project by offering further royalty claims. Too many/chunky claims often hinder the operator. The 2.25% NSR that Orion picked up for $25m in 2019 would fit into ECOR's portfolio rather nicely.
Https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/03/jobs-report-october-2023-us-payrolls-increased-by-150000-in-october-less-than-expected.html
Non-farm payroll was quite a bit lower than expected which in turn lends argument to US interest rates on the possible start of a downward trajectory. This will lead to a lower value dollar, making commodities cheaper, stoking demand. We may be witnessing the forming of a bottom for ECOR, fingers crossed.
Well they have taken the decision to move away from coal and go for "Supporting a sustainable future." They need now to find the earners for the future! Once the "green lobby" get their way, things should start looking up. Still think they need to keep looking for more to replace kestrel. "HZM" with a tier 1 nickel mine nearing completion, next year, are looking for more funds. Makes you wonder if they may be looking in that direction?
Qui audet adipiscitur
Its long term investments may turn out to be good calls but in the meantime you have to hope that cash flows will be sufficient without any further action such as asset sales at just the wrong time.
This the challenge with leveraging especially with smallish companies in a volatile sector.
Some people will be happy with the new higher risk approach others would have preferred the old steady as she goes debt free Anglo Pacific. Ref previous comment on 30th March.
50p ahead imo
Indeed. Hanging on for a top up - 70's would be nice. Disappointing to see the board ignoring this slide.
Surprised this is falling as much as it is. The 'relatively'new CEO needs to get some positive news out. Markets are so short sighted that the promise of jam in a couple of years time doesn't really cut the mustard .