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I like the dividends but this company is sooo conservative and almost totally risk adverse, as well as now playing to the ESG lobby big time , that it is steadily losing importance in my portfolio. At one point is was my biggest holding. Thank god it isn't now. The new CEO is well overdue to pull off a deal under his new leadership
Heading back to Poundland?
120p today, wish I had the cash spare to add more
This seems to be really suffering which given the number of income streams it has I find a little surprising. Its nice to hear re the occasional director share buys but compared to trident royalties which is pumping out the news this seems to be even more quite than normal. Which is normally pretty quite ! I hope the new CEO is up to the job because neither he nor the CFO exactly inspire confidence in me at the movement . Lets hope a deal is imminent to prove me wrong.
I've just started buying back in having sold higher too. Taking it slow as not looking great chart wise!!
Recent dip started when kestrel volumes were said to be lower in Q4, but given prices have ticked up this is no bad thing and extends the royalty runway a little further...
Couple of director buys help as well.
I have noticed a few director buys here. Must say I have been tempted to get back in. Had they a clear divi increase plan then that would tip it. As it is I haven’t noticed any intention to steadily increase the divi. So sat waiting for a better yield having exited at +150.
Usual caveats
Trek
Vote of confidence with board members buying , dividend payday, might of been better reinvesting instead of taking cash at these low prices....atb
Narrabri South approved. Not sure if that means it's actually likely to produce anything before 2026.
https://whitehavencoal.com.au/narrabri-extension/
But yeah, overall - quite surprising the company doesn't seem to have had any income from Narrabri, gone very quiet on it since the sale announcement at the end of 2021. I wonder given where coal prices have been, how much money it would have made last year if they hadn't been in a rush to sell it.
Hmmm, yes - production and saleable volumes were up c20% at Narrabri in 2022 vs the year before..
https://whitehavencoal.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Whitehaven_Coal_Annual_Report_2022.pdf
Further to my last post, they also said in an Oct 21 rns:
"Anglo Pacific will receive $21.6 million in fixed payments, of which ~$13 million is due within 18 months of the transaction close date. The remainder will be received in annual instalments until the end of 2026."
"Contingent payments totalling $5 million, payable in instalments, will become receivable upon the approval of the Narrabri South extension project by state and federal authorities in Australia, prior to 31 December 2026."
"In addition, Anglo Pacific is entitled to receive bi-annual contingent payments linked to future realised Narrabri coal prices ranging from $0.05/t if realised prices exceed $90/t to $0.25/t if realised coal prices exceed $150/t up to the end of calendar year 2026. Assuming Narrabri ROM production of 4.3-5.0 million tonnes for fiscal year 2022 and 7.0-8.5 million tonnes per annum in the southern panels, the Company would be entitled to receive approximately $9 million in price linked contingent payments, were realised Narrabri coal prices to be in excess of $150/t."
Thermal coal has averaged /well/ over £150/t during 2022. Should this not have led to some income? Assuming the mine is actually still operating, which I've not looked into.
On the 31/12/21 the company said(as regards the Narrabri sale):
"The consideration is structured as fixed payments totalling $21.6 million and contingent payments which could generate a further $14million. The fixed payments are to be received in instalments until 31 December 2026, of which ~$13 million will be received within the next 18 months."
The recent results seem to suggest that zero in contigent payments arrived in 2022.. so that would suggest that within the next 5 months they are expecting 'approximately' $13m to come in. Certainly thermal coal prices have been bouyant. Anyone else have knowledge/views on this?
You are right about Kestrel but I am pleased looking at the annual figures out this morning. Strong hold for me in my heavily weighted long term mining portfolio (RIO, ASX:TIE, ASX:LTR , ASX:MI6 and Ecora ).
Any forecasts on this for next week
Obviously Kestrel will be down I guess. No idea on others
17th Jan 2023
Berenberg cuts Ecora Resources price target to 260 (330) pence - 'buy'
RBC cuts Ecora Resources price target to 280 (310) pence - 'outperform'
Thanks Cacher
It's simply deferred ounces. We might see some weaker quarters in H1 23, but ultimately the ounces will eventually turn into revenue for ECOR. It does provide a bit of a longer/smoother run off for Kestrel too.
Any disruption is frustrating, but that's all it is.
Is this not great news for the company and when the results come, or am i reading this incorrectly ?
CBurn I would have agreed with you, a 140 bottom, that was until it went down to 138. Especially after R Stan’s relation bought at 145 and all the rest way higher, (except Kevin ***** in Feb ‘22 - 138).
I don’t believe I know a lot, but I think: -
Cooking coal has moved back up a bit to $330/mt not like it was at $600/ton in July but still higher than the 5 yr trend.
The Cobalt price is now $51,500/mt, which came down from its high of $80,000/mt in April ’22, but is still better than the prices when we set up the deal in Feb ’21, I think they talked about $35,000/mt.
We’ve invested large amounts in South 32 and should be benefiting from those royalties to cover the loss of Kestrel. We’ve received a small dividend to pay for it all but in IMHO the future looks great with low debt when interest rates are looking to rise
I can’t understand why ATMIT the SP price is messing around at 10p above the buy-in price for us when we got Voisey Bay.
- PE 3.4; - Fwd PE 4.5; - Divi 4.6%.
Let’s hope we’re in green for the next few days then I can continue my dream of making some money one day.
All in MHO and DYOR
Most likely reason for SP drop - China allowing imports from Australia.
Thus, supply up, coal price down.
You can see this with Whitehaven Coal Ltd sp dropped on 3/1/23 but now recovering gradually.
+ GLEN
Cobalt prices, which having remained steady for months, fell by almost 3% earlier in the week.
Doesn't explain the almost 9% drop in SP however.
Maybe JT is selling more shares to fund his divorce settlement but it appears that 140 is the current limit.
"In another chat area, a day trader stated he only need to make a 1% profit in a wk. Seems very small but this meant he made 50% a yr."
Perhaps Nick Train should take a leaf from this dude's book then.
Hi Mr M, after watching APF going up and down from £1 to £2 for the last 6/7 yrs. I too have decided it’s better to do some wk/monthly trading.
In another chat area, a day trader stated he only need to make a 1% profit in a wk. Seems very small but this meant he made 50% a yr.
SP price My Profit
151.00 681.75 5.23%
160.00 1,499.85 11.50%
175.00 3,650.40 22.81%
190.00 5,335.20 33.33%
My dream: - if I could do the lowest figure 5x a yr and catch the yrs dividend I could make 30% per yr on this money. This should be easier/quicker than waiting for the SP to get to 190 but if it does my other share in APF will catch that.
Buzz, another APF chat room college from 5+ yrs ago who weekly told us the coal price etc, told me to do this with setting buying/selling prices via Iweb etc.
However, I still don’t trust trading platforms, had a few issues, but it does stop you from changing your target prices.
Also LTH - personally I sell a portion at 160ish and buy back at 140ish. I guess the big guns are doing the same but at much smaller margins.
LTH = decent divis!
I am also a LTH. A good solid share........drop seems odd, I agree with you.