Member Info for sundancer

I was breaking even around the same level also but after it dropped below 100p, decided to take out more cash to buy in. Last buy was at 55p. All or nothing haha.

The directors regularly buying throughout the decline helped build confidence a lot, that my years of research on this company was still valid. Now, we are enjoying the fruits of our labour, in cobalt and copper we believe!

I'm still here. :)

brings back good memories haha

"According to management’s calculations, the company’s net asset value per share is about £1.82."

Current share price is £0.62. What a joke!

https://stockhouse.com/news/the-market-online-news/2024/05/31/ecora-completes-us-10m-buyback-but-stock-undervalued

I have researched on the BoD pay package a few years ago. It was not exhorbitant.

Share buy backs isn't advised now because they are in a period of low profitability, even with the loan facility extended. They also intend to maintain minimum dividend of 7p a year. What we can look forward to is income streams coming online within 2024.

Low share price is because the market is pricing in the risk of a prolonged period of low profitability, which I think is fair. The BoD does not rush into investment decisions and are generally conservative. Those who are willing to take on these risks will reap a great reward of 8.75% yield at current share price of 80p.

Ecora's needs USD$22m a year to breakeven, including pricing in dividend payouts. Marc's income forecast for 2024 is either same as 2023 or more. Nothing to worry about for now, but future potential is not priced into the current share price. Patience and faith in the BoD is needed.

DYOR

...below 100p. not sure why my messages are being concatenated. must be AI!

...at

If we have a closing price of 96p sometime this week, perhaps a reversal is in place. at 96p currently, let's see how much it closes tonight.

comforting to see Marc Bishop still buying shares at

A year ago, USD$51509.24.

2 months ago, USD$32981.88

1 month ago, USD$32982.75

Currently, USD$33,420.00

If cobalt rises to USD$35,000/t I think ECOR will likely be in the clear.

*from general Googling.

Https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/03/jobs-report-october-2023-us-payrolls-increased-by-150000-in-october-less-than-expected.html

Non-farm payroll was quite a bit lower than expected which in turn lends argument to US interest rates on the possible start of a downward trajectory. This will lead to a lower value dollar, making commodities cheaper, stoking demand. We may be witnessing the forming of a bottom for ECOR, fingers crossed.

thanks for trying to enlighten me but it still didn't help answer why the directors have been buying shares all year. i took time to listen to the entire webcast again as of 30 june 2023.

https://stream.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/64e36d138e06f606d0f0cc7b/64f592ffc6e9d7476c27e94c

starting from net asset of usd$500m ye2022, the key takeaways for me are :-

1. near term(ye2023) expected net debt was announced as usd$100m, but as of end september in the q3 rns yesterday, it is still rather low at usd$68m. - good

2. the two primary drivers for income starting as early as q12024 is increased production at voiseys bay and kestrel mining at areas within scope of the royalty. it's already q42023 so not much longer to wait. - good

3. voiseys bay at final phase of switching from above to below ground which should ideally time it right for ramp up next year. the risk here could be adverse weather conditions with winter coming up it would have been nice if there was communication in yesterday's rns that this risk is mitigated - good with risks

3. seems like there is still around usd$100m+ headroom from the credit facility for all of next year. with my previous rough estimation, usd$40m per annum for operating expenses + dividend payments makes it about 2.5 years of runway - good

4. costs remain flat despite the inflation. - good

5. voiseys bay deliveries are currently below expectation but cobalt price isn't attractive enough to consume/extract supplies in the ground, which is sensible and smart. but the timing could have been better. - mixed good/bad

there are others but i'm tired of typing. i've been invested here for years and apf has always had prudent financial management so i am surprised at the share price. i reckon q42023 will be the lowest point of the share price before things start looking brighter from q12024 onwards. i also think an established uptrend would come within the next 3 to 4 months or sooner which is when i think i'll top up. i'd like to see chief financial officer kevin ***** buy more shares within this timeframe which should indicate that all is still well financially, or if cobalt prices gap up.

if you notice, the little calculations i have above negates cash in bank and any income for the next 2 years. this risk should already be baked in the sp.

my understanding of the director buys this year is now better understood and i shall remain invested because it's not too long to wait.

Yeah once Kestrel ends we will be burning cash but operating costs are rather low. Let's say we burn USD$40m a year for operations & dividend payout: based on net assets of USD$500m at YE 2022, minus current market valuation at USD$290m+USD$43m hit from Kestrel depreciation, that's a negative equity of about USD$167m. Market is pricing in about 4 years(167/40=4.175) operations with zero income...which we know is NOT the case.

These are rough calculations to try make sense out of ECOR current valuation because I was wondering why on Earth are directors buying shares throughout this year if fortunes are supposedly as bad as what the market seems to be pricing in.

End of 2022, net assets were circa USD$500m. At the current share price and current exchange rates, the market is valuing ECORA at USD$291m.

Kestrel depreciation hit is USD$43m.

Operating cost a year is USD$10m, dividend payments should cost perhaps USD$22m.

So on a very rough guess, perhaps the company should be worth :-

net assets of 500m,

-43m (Kestrel depreciation hit)

-20m (operating expenses for 2 years)

-44m (paying dividends fof 2 years)

=USD$415m! But the current market cap is USD$291m.

*not considering income this year & next, especially if cobalt or nickel rises again

**availability of USD$200m revolving credit facility, if needed.

What am I missing out, especially big ticket items?

What's needed is an announcement confirming that ECORA can continue to pay dividends at 7p a year for the next 2 to 3 years without requiring more capital.

Or, Santo Domingo surprises with an announcement of a nearer than expected income stream.

The only good news we have is that not one, but most board members have been buying shares throughout all of 2023. I wonder why.

"The consensus forecast is for cash profits of $54mn for the full year, a return to 2019 levels. Buy."

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/09/05/ecora-resources-transitions-to-lower-profits/

Well, back in 2019, share price was between 150p to 190p. Are we going to see those levels again, hope so.

All the best, Trek.

I'm averaging 120p, will hold it out and buy more on any weakness.

Guess we're now all happy they haven't totally decoupled coal from their royalty income mix haha

It's due to the risks involved which the current management team seem to be navigating very well through the various storms...but the risks remains :-

1. balance of USD$78.5m convertible bonds due on 24th July.
2. oil price needs to stay above USD$90 till that date.
3. oil is averaging USD$101 so far, this year.
4. uptime of FPSO or any possible production blockers.

So unless some inside news has leaked, the recent drop could be relative to recent weakness in the oil price.

I've got a small bet at an entry price of 7.4p. I hope all goes well and Hurricane is able to bide over...the hurricane.

Really? The RNS on 3rd March states those registered 6th June(ex-div 7th June). Which date is the actual ex-dividend date?

https://investegate.co.uk/synthomer-plc--synt-/rns/preliminary-results-for-the-year-ended-31-dec-2021/202203030700085094D/

Thanks to Richard Crow, I'm in at 220p to ride this predicted growth.

Think again, my friend. Oil has far more reaching impact than coal. Also, supply is driven by demand. Demand drops during a recession because people just can't afford it. You just can't avoid the economic cycle. Recovery > growth > inflation > recession > recovery > growth > inflation > recession and so on, and so forth.

In 2008, inflation was 4% and oil hit USD$100 for the first time in my life...triggerred a credit crunch > global economic recession. In the next year 2009, oil averaged USD$60 a barrel....a 40% drop. Rising oil prices raises inflation rates till the bubble bursts into a recession. Oil prices will always have a threshold that is brought about by a recession.

That's what I mean about this Nuttal chap. He is talking sh*te. Maybe he was just a boy back in 2008.