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https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/utilities/lse-drx/drax-group-shares/news/we-think-drax-groups-londrx-profit-is-only-a-baseline-for-wh
Another positive article on DRX
Your embarrassment has worn off a bit then Coco?
I haven’t written anything here for months but I’m really moved seeing I’m still in peoples’ memory. Seems like my legacy has been established. Go, load up the truck, great company!
I am wondering exactly the same thing ! Hopefully someone will enlighten us
any idea of why the biggish drop today? basically giving up yesterdays rise
Sold out the other day at 640, happy with profit but gonna hang around, waiting for hat sage Effix to tell me when I can jump back in...
Is £7+ the new £3 that effix assured us was peak. As yazz famously sang...the only way is up.
Does anyone have any insights into how Drax wood pellet contracts are priced?
£50-£100 coming folks - no doubt with some bad news which means people will top up more
@Scotdrog - appreciate your feedback. We used to have a bit of a clown on here theorising about price zones and predicting all sorts of nonsense so its great to hear good info from the front lines!
As an ex employee also in at £1.27 waiting for extra 6 months to lapse to bail out. Never thought £6.50 was possible last year when all the forced redundancies were happening
Good vibes to be honest. Staff feel valued and v impressive results yesterday. Most stocks taking a pounding but Drax still going upwards.
@scotdrog - I think we should be canvassing your thoughts as an employee on the management and overall morale in the business? Not insider trading stuff but general health of the business from someone actually in it at the sharp end. No ramping though!
As a current employee I'm in at £1.27 !!! Think I will be on the right side in 2.5 years when the plan matures. Also invested at just over £3 but they are based on market forces with my own funds ..again nice position to be in.
With wholesale prices where they are, Drax can't help but do well for some years to come. Putin has virtually guaranteed an entrenched high forward Gas price so the bark spread looks v healthy vs the spark spread which will set the market price. CM auction results suggest tight operating margins will continue and it takes a long time to get new plant online in response to high prices (even if Env regs allow it). At this rate, Drax will not need BECCS. If they can manage that though...hold on to your hats. Barclays updated their target price a few months ago, going out on a limb to somewhere in the 900s I think. Not looking so far-fetched now
I think we could be heading for £6.50 plus when the results are announced tomorrow...thoughts?
Drax 3 & 4 PNd off yesterday evening and remain available not running. Ratcliffe had 3 units run thru' the night ( 1 PNd, 2 BOAd) all 3 PNd to full load thru' the morning.
Interesting that Uniper see fit to run 3 coal units and Drax leave 2 biomass units off the bars.
All good stuff, TD.
Whilst it is great news the coal units are running, it is going under the Rader that the spare (non CFD or ROC) unit is generating and capturing these day ahead prices.
Also, Cruachan, the pumped storage unit, is coining it in.
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By my working out, we are getting the post 2027 business for free as 2022 and 2023 have a lot of sales locked in at these high prices.
Another important dynamic, especially on plant which rarely runs, is NDZ - notice to deviate from zero. Physically, the time it takes to fill the boiler with water, fire it up to temperature and pressure then run up the turbine. Dx5 & 6 currently showing 720 mins, when clap cold it's pushed out to 999mins. NDZ needs to be <90mins for the SO to instruct a sync. This gap is bridged by a warming or BM Start-up instruction. This is not a firm instruction to start, merely to come to a state of readiness. It can be cancelled at any time. Drax 5 received such an instruction for Tuesday, it was stood down after about 4 hours at 85mins notice. These instructions are also in the public domain, so the whole industry new on Sunday that Drax 5&6 might run on Monday. Info here: https://extranet.nationalgrid.com/sonar
As ted says: MEL is sent out capability; FPN is what they intend to send out in a half hour period. BOA is Bid Offer Accept. Alongside FPNs (which must be submitted by gate close, 1 hour before the beginning of settlement period) a Generator must submit bid prices and volumes (to buy back power, ie reduce load), and offer prices and volumes (to sell more power ie increase load). The System Operator uses these bid and offer acceptances to fine balance the system. So, the yellow BOA lines on the graphs are deviations from FPN instructed by the SO. Because Drax (almost) never PN Units 5 and 6 on, they only run under BOAs. There are many other parameters involved in such runs - run-up rates, Stable Export Limit, minimum non zero time. Not sure how much more to say. I'm happy to tell you all that I know, but I'd be typing 'til the end of next year.
Thanks Tufted and Tad for the info. I am using the following site to track future elecrricity prices and so far it seems that the prices will remain high for a while so should be good for Drax.
https://marketwatch.zenergi.co.uk/market-analysis/
FPN - Final Physical Notification - the amount they WILL generate in the relevent period.
MEL - Maximum export limit - The amount they CAN generate in the relevent period.
I need to check up on BOA.
TuftedDuck, what do the labels FPN, MEL and BOA mean on your friend's website? Drax 5 and 6 are currently showing MEL of 645MW - is that just the nominal capacity?
Can't promise, but I'll try. It tends to be when there is very little wind around teatime / darkness (highest demand of the day). On Monday, there was only about 700MW of wind. Today and the next couple of days it's forecast over 10,000MW.
The main interest on the system now, is what will happen next winter. Drax 5 & 6, Ratcliffe 1, and the remaining 2 units at West Burton A are all due to decommission this summer. I think there is a good chance that owners may be incentivised to keep some of these units available.
Tufted. Thank you for correcting me. I bow to your greater technical knowledge. I assumed wrongly that big increase in coal usage in power generation was due to input from Drax. Can you maybe let us know if/when Drax Coal kicks in? Captain Birdseye!!!