Member Info for aarya

Thanks for correcting my figure of £11.85. I am considering selling one of my share to top-up this.

I consider conservatively there is 70% chances of takeover at around £14. If takeover does not go ahead, the share will drop down to £8 short term. It will only be a matter of time, someone will attempt to buy again in a year or two. Based on these assumptions, it is worth £11.85 at present. All guess work. But still seems a good buy.

I am totally frustrated by the price action as so many of other investors. However, I don't understand the logic of downgrade and price action other than simple sentiment and possibly more dump by short sellers. Jefferies previous target was £12.20 but share was hovering around £4 so the market didn't believe in Jefferies target. Now, they have dropped it to £4.46 and the market believe in their assessment. Also, what took them so long to revise down their target? It seems like a game being played at the moment. I am significantly down but don't plan to sell unless I see clear downtrend in financial performance.

I just hope if that is the case that we as investors don't quickly sell out to help out shorters and temper any rally.

Shorters will look to close their shorts at some point unless they think the share is going to zero. As and when they do and taking a time frame of 1 year in mind, one can argue that there are buyers of c. 12m shares (including buy backs) in next 12 months which itself should provide hugh support to the share price. Fidelity recently increased their holdings to 13% and I doubt it they would increase their holdings further if they believed the business is in terminal decline. A great risk reward ration at this price. Like others, I would have bought more if I was not so heavily invested already.

I doubt that 2 RNS is the reason for the rise. Rise started yesterday and today before RNS were released.

I don't think there would be any buyback today as was the case yesterday. The reason it is boucing back (in my view) is that it had fallen too far. Also, Schroder's bid implies that active investing is not dead. I looked at II community and noticed that a lot of investors have sold out at huge losses. Some have sold out at losses of 80-90% but there are others with losses of 30-50%. I think capitulation has already happened. Not as many frustated investors to sell any more so, any hint of positive sentiment could lift the share price very quickly. GLA.

I am finding the same and feeling the pain as more of my funds are invested in the UK. I have observed a trend that momentum at present is one of the big drivers. If a share start moving up then it is more likely to go up even further and vice-versa. It is possibly the impact of more money being managed passively. Also, I observed that although difficult, it is time to double down instead of bail out at the time of immense frustration which I am feeling at the moment. I have recently bought more of Future plc as it looks so cheap on the fundamental basis. It may not go up in a hurry as short sellers will do all they can do to keep it low until they have covered their positions. I am hoping that in a year or two, things will normalise and value will emerge. GLA.

Buffetology fund complelety sold out of Liontrust in December. The fund had been a long term investor in the company. They held c. 1.3m shares i.e. 2% of the company. Although, it may be seen as negative however, I have seen that selling by Buffetology fund has provided a good opportunity. Two of the stocks that come to mind are RM Plc and Air Partner. They completely sold out of Air Partner at around 18p and it was taken over a few years later at around £1.25. Similiarly, RM plc has gone up a lot after they sold out. Trifast which they sold out of has not done so well. So, it is a mixed bag. Howver, possibly one soure of supply has dried up and may help in stabilising the share price. I have been holding for a while so sitting on a massive loss and feeling the pain. Possibly, it is not a good time to bail out and will stick around for the time being.

This is possibly the cheapest stock on a fudamenta basis in my portfolio. I just can't believe the figures. The company has paid off £200m of debt between 2022 and 2024 financial years and bought back c.11m shares. During this time, working capital reduced by c.£77m. This gives a net cash generation of c.£190m i.e. c.£95m per year. Market cap is just over £600m now. Even if the profits don't grown and drop a little, it seems too cheap for the cashflow they are generating. Market is saying that their business model is broken and has priced the share accordingly. If it turns out not to be the case and business is okay (it does not have to be great), it should rerate significinatly. Mark Slater (Slater Investments) is invested which gives me a little bit more confidence. Peter Wood has been selling his holding and may be close to selling down in full and it should clear the overhand. Any good news could make short sellers to cover their position. I am anxiously waiting for the results in Dec and would like to see net debt being reduced future along with a new sharebuyback. If it does happen, then share should respond. Hope the company does not disappoint. GLA.

How did company manage to buy 175k shares in last few days without disturbing the price. I could not buy even 4000 shares at offer price. I had to pay 73.5. placed another limit order at 73.5 and only got 1000 shares at 73. I think it is only a matter of time that share will move up higher.

It is frustrating holding this stock. But it looks so cheap and have added more recently. As and when it does go up, the move could be swift.

It seems undervalued and decided to buy back after selling last year. I can't understand why it is so unloved but hope that in due course, market will realise its true value and share will rerate. GLA.

I bought recently based on buy indicator on Monthly supertrend. This indicator gave a sell signal in May 2018 and then only now, it has given a buy signal. I don't know if stock is undervalue on fundamental basis but was okay to invest based on this indicator. https://invst.ly/1bp2lq

It is looking good. Happy to hold. I had a small holding bought at a very high price but build up my holdings after seeing Howard Marks fund buying heavily in to the company. What price you are looking to sell at?

I don't hold this share after selling a few months ago but keep an eye. I feel that it has come into buying range. But I will follow the chart below which provided good entry and exit signals: https://invst.ly/1bcl34

Monthly RSI has crossed above 50 first time in more than 9 years. Hopefully, it is the start of bull run in the share on a long term basis.

I too topped up. I am not sure how it is going to pan out over the next few months but should do well once UK small/mid caps start performing and flows turn positive. Meanwhile, getting paid in terms of dividends for waiting for recovery.

Although I am intrigued why the share price has not risen but tempting to buy some more at the current price. Liontrust has been selling in small amounts that could also be a reason. I think downside in the event of deal not going ahead is 10-15% but upside is a lot more (possibly 60-70% from here). Also, even if the deal does not go ahead, share price should recover sooner or later. My view is that odds of deal going ahead are 40%. Any other views?

Spring mountain managed to sell 5% stake in the company in 2 months without distrubing the price much. That shows strength to me. Also, buyback in earnest has not yet started. As and when it does, share price is likley to go much higher. I am happy to hold as I have done for last several years.