Member Info for aarya

The reason could be that market does not believe that takeover will go ahead. I was also sceptical but I think the chances of deal going through has increased after today's extension. I still believe that deal will happen only at a huge premium.

Based on share price reaction, market does not believe that takeover offer will be successful. Corpay will have to pay a huge premium for a successful bid which they may not be willing to. At the same time, I was reading that Mastercard has taken 3% stake in Corpay Cross Border payments business which could justify paying them a huge premium. Time will tell but I am in no rush to sell - bid or no bid. It is not in shareholder's interest to make offer price known as you don't want others potential bidders to know.

I echo your sentiment. I doubt that it would be taken over unless they are willing to pay a significant premium.

It is a business run for long term and I don't see any reason why it will not continue to do well even in a volatile sector. Some are complaining a lack of buy-backs for poor share performance . I understand that it is an issue for investors who are in quick returns. However, management is buying convertible bonds to reduce share diluation in 2026. They have already spent more than £80m in 2 tranches which I get it not a huge amount based on their cash pile. However, I think they will continue to buy more as still c£300m convertible bonds remain outstanding. I believe long term investors will do very well from this compounding machine. I have been buying from under £7 to over £15 and will look to buy more as and when further cash available in my portfolio. There are not that many businesses as well run as this one so short term price correction is more of an opportunity than concern.

No idea why they are not buying. Had a quick look on Stockopedia and it seems that directors didn't buy other than some small amounts now and then even when the price was down to £10. Chairman did buy £100k worth at £16.48 in Oct 24 though.

I tend to agree with SG as it seems that someone is committed seller. It is going down even when the market has been up over last few days. It could also be that some investors who bought between £10-12 are selling to lock in profits and do not want to see their profits wiped out by this sudden/sharp slide. I am not suggesting that it would happen but would not be surprised if it goes back into the old trading range (not in a matter of days but over next few weeks) of £10-12 seeing the trend.

I look at supertrend that has been broken. Uptrend was slow and steady and showed hestiancy. But downtrend seems to be firm. BB has been breached significantly. That I take as sign of weakness. I like the company for long term but will wait to buy.

Chart is not looking good. Not sure recent takeover announcement has anything to do with it. I was looking to but will wait now as drop seems sharp.

https://invst.ly/18gkak

Https://invst.ly/187tn1

Could this be start of a new uptrend? Any views?

I was not suggesting in anyway there is anything wrong with what you are doing.

It is one of those shares for me (may be I am being too optimistic) that I don't want to trade. I have been adding a little bit here and there and plan to do so on any weakness. I am not in this share for quick return and plan to hold for a long time.

From Dec 2004 to now, over last 20 years, Jet2 share has gone up more than 16 times that is a compouned return of 15%pa. Someone lucky enough to buy in Jan 2004, it has gone up 41 times, a return of 19% pa. How about this as shareholder return? It seems that having a lot of cash in their balance sheet, you want to use that to further increase shareholder returns. I would rather invest in a company that invests for long term. I only started buying these shares over 2 years ago so, I have not seen the kind of returns long term shareholders would have seen. But I believe that long term returns from here on could be as good as seen in the past. I hold OTB shares too and I am happy with their share buyback approach as they don't need much capital to run and returning surplus capital through buyback.

In my view, market has not recognised quality of this business and so, it has always traded at a significant discount to its valuation. It has c.20% net profit margin over last many years. It should trade at least 2.5x sales whereas it is at 1.8x sales at present. I see c40% upside at current price of c£3.

I agree that it may take time and may never happen but on its own, it seems too cheap so was happy to add more.

Just noticed 2 related new shareholders with 6.5% shareholding: Regent Gas Holdings Limited & Regent Acquisitions Limited. Searched on these companies. They had taken TClarke private earlier this year. What is their plan for this investment? I am holding these shares for a while at a loss but it seems a good company but going through cyclical downturn but seems cheap even with current fundamentals. So, added a few more earlier today. GLA.

You are comaring this company to its peer group but this company is so much better than them and its actions may not match its peer and rightly so. I just had a look at last 5 years performance. Jet2 is up by 7% while IAG, OTB and EZJ are down by 25%, 46% and 50%. Over longer term, there is no comparison. Jet2 is head and shoulders above the rest. This company operates in a very tough industry where fortunes can change in a very short period of time and that is why, I only invested a small portion of my holdings into this company. I suppose our disagrement is how conservative this company is being run. I get it by annoucing a buy back , share price will jump but I will leave it for the board to decide and I am happy to remain invested in a compounding machine for long term.

OTB does not require much capital to run their business unlike Jet2. So, sensible to keep a lot of cash as they plan to spend more than £5bn over next 6-7 years. Jet2 forecaset eps is almost double of what it was pre-pendemic while OTB forecast for next year is same as before pandemic so Jet2 has done well on a fundamental basis than OTB and it is reflected in the share price. Jet2 share price is not too far off from all time high while OTB is more than 50% down. I invested in Jet2 around 2 years ago and plan to be a long term investor. I can't see as many quality businesses in the UK as Jet2 but they operate in a tough business so best to manage it in a conservative way as they are doing.

Buyback is unlikely to start until share price stablises. Usually, share buyback can't take place when current share price is 5% or more than average over the last 5 days which is the case for OTB at present.

Had a look at the past track record of the income CEO. I am comfortable holding my position and added more earlier today. I doubt MT will hand over the busiess to someone else who was not comptent enough. He still holds c. 14% of the shares and has pledged to continue holding at least 10% shares in the company for next 3 years.

The chart pattern seems very similiar to what happened at end of 2021. I have drawn two blue vertical lines showing the position on the chart now and what it was last time around i.e. six weeks into after supertrend triggered a buy signal.

https://invst.ly/15qhmt