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So having reinvested back here after 6 months with a clear alert to buy last week and some excellent news ( 2 great RNS ) we are heading back to mid/high 60s . Question... why are the mm so reluctant to move up price .. ( my parallel investment DEST mm cant wait to move up price ,check out graph when they have news ) here its as slippery as greasy pole dancer . Question ...why are inverters looking to sell on a rise of a few pence if there are " great things ahead" , this creates a negative psychology ..looking to get out on news and not buy in . So ...And yet i will give the company the benefit of the doubt ....but with a very tight stop loss to protect a small profit,
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IMO the share is holding it's gains, considering we just had a placing which created 17% dilution (at just a 1% discount), to maintain the share price at the placing price is very encouraging. If we stood still, the share price should be around 55p
The market cap is now £116.7m, it's the dilution that has hit the actual gain, without the placing, the share price today would be 84p.
This may sound disappointing but institutions demonstrated their MASSIVE VOTE OF CONFIDENCE, providing the cash to hopefully get DNL over the finish line in terms of profit. This is the nature of biotech I think.
I personally think this will end with a takeover and I think maintaining this market cap shows this may be not too far off.
The market cap today is £116.7, to get us to 84p now, the market cap would need to be £141m, for £1, the market cap needs to be £168m - these are much bigger numbers but again, look a the vote of confidence from the II's.
We all know funds are needed to get the pipeline to market, either the company takes on debt (and the lenders get paid first) or the shareholders step up and fund the business - keeping the debt at zero.
Unfortunately this is is reality - but again, ask why the institutions are so confident? DNL are delivering.
The market cap, just 11 months ago on 30/06/2020 was only £38.7m - the actual increase is in the region of 200%.
I believe there is more to come, if you are confident, buy the dips and beat the placing.
GLA
They can't still be doing so a year later..........
Easy answer lot's of peeps loaded up large amounts at 30p and they are topslicing.
Why can't DNL hold gains, that's the question? With all the positive newsflow, it should be providing support to the SP but it keeps drifting back
Just gone through, cleared up all the sells.
They are like Fed Ex
Fab news this morning. These guys just keep delivering.
I’m pretty sure they are already in discussion with the ‘boys boys’ - I hope everyone is enjoying the sun - I am not trading DNL as my holding is too large and my job is too busy. And I’m terrible at trading lol
Thanks Scored .
I would be happy to wait three years TBH with no T/O as i believe we would trading around £3 by then, but seen it too many times with these small pharma's as soon they are derisked, the big boys move in boys move in.
WE all have different end games mine is a 2/3 bagger from here . I was lucky i got in dnl at a low price . Best times yet to come . AND like me a few feel dnl will be bought out .Hopefully not to soon as it would only add 50p a share atm i think ? ALL the best aim hope you do ok here
FRIDAYS rns has de risk dnl wonderfully . Its so attractive now as the jigsaw is getting finished . Asi said before i trade 50/50 but on that news i will just leave .Summer is here and i like to relax and enjoy the sun . i wont put no price target on dnl as you all know i got it wrong before. GOODLUCK all .Thanks HunSeN and others for great points .Hello to si 64 from other board atb
Aim i post over on ADVFN as simon64.
My strategy is i hold 30k from 30p until a T/O which i think will happen in the next six-12 months if not sooner and i trade approx 10k on highs and lows .
May I ask what everyone’s end game is here also? At what point will everyone be looking to sell. Are you trading it? Selling in 6 months? 12 months? Sp target?
https://www.sharesoc.org/seminar/sharesoc-webinar-with-diurnal-dnl-19-may-2021/
Adding to the case "for" takeover, the recent placing was at a 1% discount to the price on the date. The placing was taken up by institutions at that price. This shows their confidence.
As they have a better understanding, teams of researchers, and because there are so few shares to buy on the open market, I think they better understand this lifecycle.
Where as retail investors (including myself) did not take up the offer - for myself, that was due to having way too many shares already and not understanding this lifecycle.
I have said before that DNL has been consistent with their message and always delivered the plan. The CFO has "experience exiting companies".
I have been reading a little about the life cycle of Pharma companies, many are born and fail - DNL has survived. Investors have taken a risk, we have funded trials and new products. One view seems to be that an exit point rewards investors, who may go on to re-invest in future Pharma companies.
DNL has survived birth, it is now achieving growth and on the road to maturity and eventual decline (unless reborn).
Looking at US pharma companies "born" in 2005, only half are still active, 21% are bankrupt, and 30% have undergone an IPO or M&A (DNL has already reached IPO). DNL was founded in 2004 and has already passed this stage - history shows early stage pharma companies are taken by bigger fish.
The 21% risk of death (bankruptcy) has passed I believe, so the end game is now either to survival and rebirth (possibly DITEST) or M&A.
In the most recent DNL presentation, the CEO mentioned the CFO had experience "exiting" companies, so I believe this is most probably the route this company will take.
It is now my belief that an exit in it's self is a business plan to return value to investors (including those institutions still adding to DNL), structured exits also come in the form of licencing (as with Eton) with payments based on milestones.
So, my thoughts on DNL are that there is an "exit plan" that is now clear to me from the recent presentation.
Timing is key, DNL now has two licenced drugs with an addressable market of $2.3b (from my notes) and DITEST in the pipeline (with an agreed route forward) worth $5.1b (again from my notes).
So, if you were a big fish, looking from the outside, when is the time to start talking takeover?
The EV of the company is just £100m, for future earnings, it is clearly worth a premium and judging by the institutional take-up, I would say substantially more. With two drugs now at market, the company's ability to bring drugs to market must substantially de-risk DITEST for a potential acquirer.
These could be of interest, https://trinitylifesciences.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Trinity_Whitepaper_Envisioning_A_Successful_Exit.pdf , https://www.ebe-biopharma.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/EBE-Exit-Strategies-in-finance.pdf
My point here is to ask your view on what may happen next? Many investors state they are here for the long haul, but I think there will be an alternative exit - I would guess within the next year. There is opportunity down either path, but my thoughts are based on the facts above and the recent CEO presentation. Cases for and against this opinion welcome?
GLA.
Moring Scored, All, yes, great news, and a few days ahead of schedule. I'm catching up on research this weekend and just looked at DNL.
From the AJ Bell (Shares Magazine) article, well worth reading in full, "once DNL has received approval from the EC for Efmody, it will provide the company's commercial cortisol replacement therapy franchise with critical mass, enabling DNL to build a strong and profitable European business through penetration of the combined addressable market for CAH and paediatric AI which is estimated to be worth over $300m in Europe alone."
Things seem to be coming together nicely now;
+ Efmody fully approved to sell in Europe
+ Sales team and route to market already in place (via Alkindi connections)
+ Covid-19 restrictions starting to ease allowing patients to access health care
+ Efmody moving towards the fastest available P3 route in the US
I believe the above is catalyst for very strong year on year sales growth as sales were muted by Covid-19 and the product range has doubled (more than doubled when you consider Alkindi is just for under 18's).
Lots of news still to come.
ALB.
I agree with a T/O have seen it so many times in the past with stocks, once the risk disappears and they are about to start making a profit, they get taken out on the cheap.
DNL delivers unlike some i know . Really this is huge news for dnl and us . IMO i can see a buy out coming in time . DNL cant do no more a well run company .IF YOU ASK me i can see dnl getting bought out by a mid tier pharma . A ready made company for them . Great times are coming if you hold. Good luck all im pleased with the progress dnl are making . This news today will give dnl big profits in time . Patience will win
I agree. I top sliced some of my shares at 86p and bought them back today.
From endpoints. Our North American license partner is on the naughty step again. Nothing directly related to DNL product but ‘sub optimal’ if Eton’s image/reputation is tarnished with medics and its reps find it harder to get in the door to sell.
“For the second time in three years, Eton Pharmaceuticals has received a complete response letter from the FDA, this time for its dehydrated alcohol injection to treat methanol poisoning. The company blamed the delay on a missing inspection but also pointed to “other questions” from the agency.
On Friday, Eton disclosed it had received a letter from the agency, tying it to a pending pre-approval inspection of its European manufacturer due to Covid-related travel restrictions. But it’s worth noting that the FDA doesn’t issue CRLs based solely on inspection delays, an agency spokesman previously told Endpoints News, indicating there may have been other issues with Eton’s application.
“The company believes all other FDA questions raised in the letter can be fully addressed in a response in the coming months,” the company said in a release. A spokesman could not be reached at press time.
That is a huge RNS, and the when market awakes, there will be a big SP rerate. GLA
I amazed that there is so little interest, i know it has caught the market by surprise and Friday afternoon and all that, but still ?