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I very much doubt that Chris Tovey would have taken this gig on had he also not seen the huge potential.
Also worth considering what will happen to the SP here IF the FDA don't accept outright DEST's very ambitious revised phase 3 plan for xf-73 (which is basically, if not actually in, then at least hovering around the door of the last chance saloon after 2 years of fruitless negotiations.) and ask for modifications to the plan and a resubmission.
A 50% drop from current levels and a very long diluted road back?
If you are new to Dest it is worth checking out AIM listed Ondine who have a competing product to Xf-73. also supposedly poised to enter phase 3, their product is probably better suited to the hospital enviroment where both will be used, not least because it only requires a single administration which is directly controlled by a clinician thus ensuring 100% compliance, whereas Xf-73 needs to be applied 5 times (on the same day).
Both co's are strapped for cash and neither is likely to escape further fund raising. When Dest are in a position to do a deal post a new phase 3 plan being accepted by the FDA, they will only have 3 months or so cash left which gives a lot of leverage to a potential partner, deals in the biotech sector are rarely negotiated on such fine timelines for this reason. So a prior fundraising is very likely imo to strengthen their negotiating position.
Al that said Dest still looks fair value at this price.
Well put Sefton.
Sefton ,I agree plus with resent news from the head of Fleming program ,right place,right time ?
I was alerted to this stock a few days ago.
And me and a few families aligned to me took a position this morning. Because I really like what I see (the possible/probable disconnect between VALUE and current Share Price).
And I like the biotech space very much.
I be but a semi-educated arbitrageur - I seek situations where there has become a disconnect between VALUE and current Share Price (SP). And I think that exists here.
In biotech, there are lots of snake-oil salesmen, so one has to be very careful, or one ends up in leprechaun-land.
Always look at 2 key factors: a) the quality of people involved and b) cash balance (do they have enough gas in the tank to make it to the Promised Land?).
This company seems to me to have both - Sir Nigel Rudd would not mess about with something that did not have true substance. He was one of the greatest corporate raiders ever - as an investment banker, I was often on the raid defence side against him.
I like this company and this stock. Very much.
Obviously no value here - only at phase 2 so there's ages to go for any result or sellable product.
Fundraise too soon so any holders will have their holding devalued by that! Haven't even got an XF-73 deal yet and it was supposedly a slamdunk/.
I do wonder if the established product suppliers would do anything to destroy a future competitor such as Dest? It is puzzling why the mcap continues to fall, when the prospects and broker forecasts are so positive.
I agree, will all take time, meanwhile will drift I think....I am keeping an eye
USA is where the money is not the UK, that's one route I'm sure CT is thinking of, either that or being taken private.
I am a holder so I hope this comes good. Is definitely unloved atm and I think will continue to drift. If so I will add more. Then with the right news investors will be clamouring for this hopefully. It is all a gamble
I added a few at just under 17, got to be value
down here.
Doubled up today at 17p
.....for Octp shareholders today, dest could go the same way as investment in bio's in the UK is at an all time low
Van, sorry I thought this was being read by people who could distinguish between opinion based on facts in the public domain and ramping. But I suppose if you cast the net wide enough you are going to catch a few morons
They might take kipper seriously because he has given facts about obi and pointed out similarities between them and Dest, you’re just offering your opinions on individuals nobody cares who you like or dislike this isn’t a popularity contest
Kipper, you and brooko are in the same bracket, you have no credibility. You were ramping this at 80p, why should anyone take your comments seriously, you are down on your investment.
Interesting to note that OBI has a successful fund raise today and SP is up about 30% today. They are a company of similar size as DEST and in the same market sector. Their cash raise was at a 40% premium; yesterday's SP being about 5p, with the fundraise at 7p. I guess it goes to show that if DEST decided to raise cash to fund XF-73 trials - and that's a big if - then the fundraise could also be at a significant premium
I don't think it really matters whether XF-73 goes into a seperate company. New company or not, raising extra cash at current low valuations would be very dilutive for current shareholders. If miraculously, the share price has risen by October, then a fund raising wouldn't be so dilutive. But at current valuations, if you wanted to raise £7 million for a new company - say, XF-73 plc - that new company would have to own a big chunk of the product to get that fundraising away.
BigBiteNow, thanks for your work and comments.
Equity developments in their note have said:
“The clinical development program for XF-73 nasal is in transition while partners review the recently available protocol changes and costings.
Destiny could start the Phase 3 studies alone to increase the value of the asset before partnering, but this would require further funding that could involve a stock offering. All the options for XF-73 nasal will be explored in the strategic review.
Destiny have also discontinued and returned of the rights to the SPOR-COV program on commercial grounds since the emphasis of this product was the prevention of respiratory infections and evolved as a result of the pandemic. Destiny’s other earlier-stage programs are grant funded.”
My understanding is the Strategic Review will cover partnering and the potential funding for the company to conduct phase three.
The company has said it will consider a range of strategic options for XF-73 nasal, including licensing and the company securing finance to enable it to conduct the Phase 3 clinical studies. In the presentation with questions and answers the CEO said he wants to avoid dilution for shareholders. The fundamentals of the business remain unchanged except that phase 3 has been redesigned to improve it and lower the cost.
Destiny has said it will continue negotiations with prospective partners and also consider other possibilities to fund phase 3. This is a good move as it gives Destiny flexibility and enhances its negotiating position.
One option is to put XF-73 into a separate company. This would allow funding for this subsidiary company and avoid dilution for shareholders of Destiny Pharma Plc. This finance could be a combination of equity and debt.
While Destiny would be reducing its 100% ownership of XF-73, it would end up with a more valuable product after phase 3 and FDA approval. XF-73 would then command a higher price from a big pharma partner. Destiny would have a smaller share of a bigger pie.
Would a partner be found for the XF-73 company? There is plenty of cash out there looking for projects, especially ones that offer relatively low risk and high return.
Destiny Plc would only need funds for admin expenses and any non-grant funded development of t=other products. Once the Sabela deal progresses stage payments will be paid and contribute to the company’s needs.
IMO any news of a pharma deal or a deal funding phase 3 at a subsidiary company level will put this company right on track to meet broker share price valuations.
I agree. Fundamentals remain good. I had lost confidence over the Spring - but the presentation was solid. This should be at least - at a minimum - where it was before the results. IMO the results had more positive messaging than anyone expected. The price drop reflected the very poor RNS - hence a buying opportunity arose that i took.
Betcha
I'm still on the side lines, but agree it was a informative presentation, in marked contrast to the rns's under Tovey's stewardship. One wonders why, particularly as some of the information could have been drip fed to the market, with a probable positive effect on the sp.
You previously mentioned the $19m staged payments from Sebela, but hard as I try, I cannot find a calendar for the trigger points and amounts.
And that's the crux of my major concern. Neither M3 or XF73 are going to get through phase 3 trials before 2026/7.
Where does the money come to sustain the business from 2025 onwards.
There's no doubt that the business side of Destiny was poor prior to Tovey's arrival, and save for his reticence to publish news on a regular basis, he has clearly put the Company onto a more professional footing.
The products, particularly the XF platform, appear to be ground breaking but we live in tough times and are dealing with hard nosed pharma.
Perhaps they have asked themselves the same question as me and are playing very hard ball.
I certainly don't see how the Company can conjure up £25-30 million, given the current valuation and the state of the markets, to fund the phase 3 trial of XF 73 and keep the business going for 2-3 years.
We were given the impression that news of the revised phase 3 trial and the associated reduced costs, if accepted by the regulators, is hot off the press and has yet to be presented to "interested parties".
I wonder if having watched YouTube, they will now be beating a path to CT's door.
As an aside, what's happened to Dr. Yuri Martina , the CMO ?