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I have not always agreed with Obadhia but I think that his contributions have always been reasonable and well argued (and always polite and not hysterical).
And thus valuable.
We do have some resident trolls/Klingons but they are usually fairly easily identifiable and thus easily ignored.
I would hope the leadership team at PRD do read some of the posts on here that are not negative but suggest that there might be some areas that could be improved.
And I think Obadhia has raised some of those issues - and I think they are well worth the leadership team considering.
It can be quite easy to get into "the Emperor has no clothes scenario", when no opinion or question is tolerated.
We should avoid that and I certainly will continue to read Obadhia's posts.,
Whilst I have always had reservations about PRD's comms strategy, it could well be that Bowlesd is right and that there may be a real plan behind it.
Either way, we would appear to have some great assets (VALUE), and some great posters who add real insights and information (BRV came to bat again today).
And I have always felt we would all be better served by letting the driver drive than indulging some mewling kids on the back seat constantly howling "Are we nearly there yet?"
BowlesD, I thought was a very observed post. My own view is that the chance of a hostile approach is low but there remains a possibility that an attractive (to some) offer comes in too early on the value-creation curve.
That will be for shareholders to accept or reject, should it eventuate.
But I do agree with the general proposition by Bowlesd that we (the shareholders) would likely be better served by delivering a Big Bang outcome than by drip-feeding small results.
Anyway, have a good weekend all and may we have some great weeks and months ahead on the good ship PRD.
In my view, PG's seemingly throwaway comment about PE has added have added nothing to the discourse and only seems to have stoked confusion and discord, as is reflected in the SP today.
I have no problem whatever with an auction type scenario being engineered to create interest but I think it unlikely that large players, be they strategic investors/buyers or PE houses, are taking their lead from bulletin boards.
It appears to me that the comment about PE has just stoked a hornet's nest of debate - to no shareholder benefit.
Tmhs, PE (private equity) is, by its very definition a sector that invests in private (ie, non-listed) companies. It can do that, either directly into a non-listed (private) company or by acquiring a listed company and then de-listing it (taking it private). In that latter case, it is usually because the PE house believes the company to be significantly undervalued by the market and that it can take the company private, sort out whatever issues were causing the undervaluation and then either re-list it when those challenges have been resolved or do a trade sale. Either way, the benefit of the uplift would go to the PE house, not the shareholders (the PI's) who would have been bought out by them in making the buy offer.
PE houses do not typically come in and take minority positions in public (listed equities). Hedge funds and Family Offices do that often.
So, if the intention is to seek a significant strategic investor whilst remaining listed, I would not be opposed to that. But I would be opposed to a de-listing.
As regards my capitalising the word VALUE, it is because it can sometimes can be a very different thing from SP. And I believe that there is currently a huge disconnect between the SP and VALUE. That, in my view, offers opportunity and I have been adding a fair bit to my holdings in recent days.
The disconnect between the SP and VALUE make yet take a little while to narrow (and, ideally, narrow to the point of elimination). That is, I believe, because there is not yet significant buying pressure in the market for this stock. I do not think the lack of buying pressure is due to any great doubts as to whether the here is huge VALUE in the assets assembled by PG but because of doubts as to the time it will take to crystallise the VALUE in those assets (basically, the gamma).
Those doubts may have been caused by some missed deadlines in the past and some less than brilliantly staged placings, both of which caused dilution and the SP to fall significantly.
I believe that some of the comms around dates and deadlines could have been better handled and I feel the same about the placings. But that is now spilt milk and we are where we are. I remain strongly of the view that the current SP massively undervalues the VALUE here and I am prepared to be patient around how long it takes to crystallise.
However, I do think the flightpath to VALUE crystallisation maybe much quicker than some of the resident Merchants of Doom and I do not want to be off the ship when it really sails.
For what it is worth, I remain very positive about this company and whether the VALUE be crystallised via SP uplift or Special Dividends (the route I would prefer), I think the gap will narrow very significantly (the delta) and, I think, relatively fast (the gamma).
My own view is that a PE deal would be disastrous for shareholders when there such a clear disconnect between the current share price and what would appear to be the real VALUE here.
I think it would be a great deal a PE for house and probably also for PG (he is so mission-critical, they would absolutely have to structure the deal so he was very well looked after going forward post de-listing - which is what a PE house would look to do).
But such a scenario would be disastrous for the ordinary shareholders (ex PG) and I would hope that any such offer would be rejected by most shareholders.
But I do understand PG's frustration. If the market is seemingly refusing to see the real VALUE here, it is not unreasonable for PG to look at a PE option.
The institutional asset managers worldwide are generally useless and I would have hoed that PG and his advisors would have been talking to some of the hedge funds and the big Family Offices - the calibre of person working in those sort of firms is light years ahead of the muppets in the asset managers.
The SP, in my view, currently is way south of real VALUE. That is frustrating for all of us, apart from the paid trolls in the peanut gallery.
But, whilst a PE offer might advance the interests of the company and PG, it would be disastrous for the other shareholders would such a deal be accepted.
And I would certainly vote against any SP offer short of £10.
Some of my previous post got left out.
My business partner, who attended the presentation (and who is himself a very experienced investment banker), told me that there appeared to be a concerted and co-ordinated plan to try to undermine PG's credibility and confidence.
That has every hallmark of a deliberate attempt to lower the stock price so a to buy a great asset of huge VALUE on the cheap.
PG is achieving great things in terms of VALUE-creation. Maybe not yet reflected in the SP.
As long as those that believe (on a well-informed basis - because of the quality of analysis here) that that VALUE is there, PG will land the good ship PRD to massive benefit to all.
I am not a geologist at all, nor usually an O&G/E&P investor (I tend to be much more tech and biotech), I am just an arbitrageur - where I see significant dislocation between current SP and VALUE.
And because I may not be especially bright myself, I have always followed the smart money.
And on this BB (ignoring the seemingly now resident Klingons), there are some brilliant posters who really do know the technical stuff - GRH, KeithOz, Methodology, Caterham7, Wacky, Seabright, BRV and others.
I read their stuff very much because it is very detailed and clear - explaining to dimwits like me what seems to be really going on here.
And I am really encouraged by their analyses.
I was not able to attend the presentation myself (I am currently in Africa) but my business partner did attend and was very positive about the quality of PG's presentation - though he was concerned that there seemed to be a concerted and co-ordinated effort by some.
They have every right to free speech, of course, but my observation is that their comments on the BB are just hurling peanuts from the peanut gallery, without any sort of quality analysis.
Certainly not quality analysis on the scale of the Big Hitters on this BB.
My own view is that PG is doing an extraordinary job of creating real VALUE in this company.
The SP is not yet reflecting that VALUE, partly because of traders, encouraged by our resident Klingons
There are too many smart minds on here (and some dolts) for this company to be an accident.
It is not bad advice to follow the smart money.
GRH, KeithOz, Jimmy23, Seabright, Methodology, BRV and a few others are obviously the stand-outs.
But when that kind of insight, knowledge and experience has stayed the course, it gives me significant comfort that this one is likely a big winner.
Have a good weekend all.
Anti-venom,
What you have done to GRH is simply despicable.
You should be ashamed of yourself and your conduct.
I think the best way forward for you would be head down to the nearest RSPCA and volunteer yourself to be put down.
As a service to the great good of society.
Obviously, the SP movement in the last day or so has been disappointing.
And one always has to be careful about ex post facto rationalisation - basically always trying to see a silver lining when it might actually be a full-blown turn.
I too was disappointed in the RNS and the decline in the SP that followed.
I remain of the view that the VALUE here is huge (the delta) and that we have just encountered a squall on the trip.
I have not sold anything and remain firmly of the view that the SP will again track back towards VALUE.
Things have not been handled perfectly here. And maybe lessons can be learnt.
But I think the team are building a truly amazing cake, albeit that some milk may have been spilt in the process.
I remain very much aboard.
To any regular readers of the BB, it is no secret that I hold GRH in high regard (as with Wacky, BRV, KeithOz, Seabright, Methodology and several others).
The personal attacks on GRH have been unhelpful and unbecoming.
One has every right to disagree with a poster or a posting but the level of vitriol directed at GRH is really poor form.
And, whether one agrees with him or not, his insights are highly informed and very valuable.
So, for some low-life's with their abuse to have forced him off the BB is a very sad day.
The slight upward trend in the SP has been nice to see and sort of cute (Taylor Swift).
But it is nowhere near YET reflective of the true VALUE in the assets built up by this team at PRD (PG, Lonny and Moyra).
In a long investing career, PRD (driven by this team) has to be one of the best, if not the best, I have ever seen.
And, as a sanity-test, I look to who else thinks highly here - and one will seldom get better commentators than GRH, KeithOz, BRV, Seabright, Wacky, Caterham7, BRV, Vegas and several others.
Very happy on the good ship PRD - and well done PG, Lonny and Moyra!
There is something very special about this company.
Probably actuarially or balance sheet unquantifiable but just very special.
Think the year ahead will be something to remember on a Michael Caine scale.
We, obviously, given the current geo-political mess, don't really want to be encouraging people to get excited about blowing doors off but that seems to me to a great description of where we are headed.
There is some really high quality stuff posted on this BB.
And there is some detritus (albeit seemingly determined and enthusiastic, given their volume of posting),
It would appear to me that PG, Lonny and Moyra are doing a pretty incredible job on bringing some fantastic assets to monetisation.
Could comms have been better? Yes.
But building an extraordinary asset base on just 3 people?
Simply brilliant!
I was here for the long haul and I think the team have done a great job.
Possibly beyond great.
SP will eventually reflect in the destination - VALUE.
Or, more likely, Special Dividend(s).
I believe that is likely to be in a Special Dividend (more than one probably).
So, I pay not too much heed to our resident Klingons.
Soon we can get in Rentokil to address the problem.
My observation on KeithOz is that he has added huge value to this BB.
As have quite a few others, GRH particularly but some other truly spectacular contributors (Seabright, Methodology - there are quite a few).
We are very lucky to have these quality posters adding to our understanding of the situation (which looks like it will be Michael Caine stuff in blowing the doors off).
We also have some Klingons on the starboard bow (and maybe even also port bow).
So be it. There are sewage plants for a reason.
To those that add value to this (largely excellent) BB, thank you.
In my time holding PRD and being on this BB, GRH has written some pretty insightful stuff.
Of enormous VALUE.
One does not have to agree with everything he says (it is no secret that I largely do) but reading his posting trail is well worth the effort if you want to understand this company and the greater context - and potential/likelihood (I believe it to be more likelihood, though we have had, undoubtedly, some challenges on the timing front.
take what view you want on the likely outcome but one would be very well served by looking at GRH, Wacky, KeithOz, BRV, Jimmy23 and others to get a picture.
And, though I do not agree with him/them, in terms of context, one also might care to read the postings of Little Nige and his bag-carriers (Porters, PastaBelly, etc).
As ever, DYOR.
Enjoy the weekend.