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To any that may think this is all jsut BB differences, please read my post.
95-5 weighted AGAINST MEM's calculations (and it is no secret is regard MEM very highly indeed), it comes to VALUE (which could reflect in SP) of 82.5p (5% of the tcf calculations on Morocco alone).
If I am wrong in that weighting, please stand forward and explain - in real numbers - why I am wrong.
Rather than nmuck about getting upset because someone said something about energy prices going north - just go to a bloody gas station to see he was not wrong!!!!!!
I suspect, though I have no reason to know - Nico and I have never spoken or emailed - that that wording could have been better done (I would not necessarily suggest Flagstaff be called in to advise on wording).
Nico can entirely defend himself if he chooses so to do but I suspect there was not malign intent at all and rather an observation as to how the total incompetence of politicians in the UK and Ireland may actually benefit us - the shareholders in PRD.
Read my historic posts as regards you - though you often post some great stuff.
I expressed very significant reservations about you fairly on in your passage on this BB (it took me a while to sense that something was astray because your post are often so good).
Just something strange in that. Bit odd, really.
And then F&M - who often posts great stuff him/herself - comes right into back you up.
And, before you start yelling like Tom58, I am no general praise-singer and certainly not for Nico (read some of the uncomplimentary stuff he wrote about me).
I do, however, have a nose for VALUE.
That could be in the SP or the special dividend/whatever mechnism is used to crystallise VALUE.
But, on the journey to VALUE, the most important thing is information.
And Nico has done truly sterling work on sharing information.
The last thing anyone sane on the BB would want is people being scared off from posting because of the woke brigade.
This discussion is not helping anyone.
I did not AT ALL suggest Nico was insane - just read my post. Quite the opposite.
What I said - VERY CLEARLY - was that I felt Nico had added very significantly value to this BB by his comments and research, especially on Ireland (which tends to sometimes get less attention from posters).
I felt he had done sterling work by often brininging information to the table.
That should not preclude him from being then able to express an opinion on said information.
Which he sometimes (not always) does.
And he tends to express his opinion in pretty reasonable terms.
But if something is a turnip, there is no reason not to call the bloody thing a turnip.
Which the Irish energy situation is.
I would further observe that his comments were related to how this could affect PRD's SP/VALUE (you can pick or choose).
A comment/information on a situation that could affect PRD's SP/VALUE should surely be of interest to any open-minded investor/reader on the BB??????
This PC/woke stuff has really taken on the infection rates of a pandemic.
I would further wish to observe for the record that Nico (and he and I had some contentious issues before, so this is hardly "praise-singing") did not make any statement that was not factually-based as regards the Ireland mess.
No-one sane would wish misfortune on others or to seek to profit out of someone's misery.
Nico simply observed that both Ireland and the UK have very little gas storage capacity.
They will both need to sort out the gas issue.
PRD stands to benefit - from the total incompetence of political leadership.
Had these government clowns reacted earlier, PRD would have made less money - but much faster.
Now PRD stands to make much more money - but it was delayed while the Irish government dithered and played Coco the Clown.
My submission is that Nico did nothing more than point out those facts.
To all those that have gotten their knickers in a twist (PC on steroids) over Nico's comments on the Ireland situation, I would seriously suggest you read his posts over many months (he had to change handle name but it is the same poster).
And see that he has a) been on stag duty on the Ireland situation pretty much all the time, ensuring we were all alerted to developments/news there and b) has also been very informed and insightful on Morocco and T&T.
Posters like Nico are very valuable on opportunities like PRD because there is limited research outside of here.
And I am very gratfeul fo read his stuff - because then I am more likely to take a better informed ivestment decision for having had more information to calibrate.
Those having hissy-fits over political incorrectness should weight that up against the information loss we would have if the likes of Nico decided not to post.
Some people really need to get over themselves and stop running around trying to find something to be upset about.
Algeria has always been a problem child.
The Afghanistan of Africa, if you will (the DRC would contest that claim as to being an ever more never-ending disaster).
Historians called Afghanistan the "graveyard of empires" and were pretty much right on that front.
Algeria will always be, like Afghanistan, just truculent towards anything sane.
Morocco, on the other hand and, whilst not perfect, is pretty well run and has many strategic factors in its favour - one of which is its geographical proximity to the UK and Europe.
Another geo-political factor is the increasing depth of the relationship with Israel (as has happened also with India-Israel).
All of which is just the observations of a random poster on a BB.
Except, maybe not.
The VALUE of PRD's assets in one of the few stable, well run countries in Africa (Morocco), closely proximate to the UK and Europe (which are going through energy crises inflicted on them by totally incompetent political leadership and dependence on Russia), optimises the VALUE of those assets.
What may seem to be a perfect storm, with the government disasters in the UK, US, Ireland, Germany, etc, may be providing the mother of all FOLLOWING WINDS for Morocco and, by extension, because of its brilliant positioning there (by PG), PRD herself.
It is obviously no fun watching the disastrous government situations unravelling in the major economies - but, whatever view on may take of those situations - the thing that matters here is PRD.
And PG would seem to have positioned the company most excellently, espeically as regards Morocco, in the midst of a global energy crisis.
I would suggest that be a job well done, even if the SP may take a while to catch up.
Some very clever people read this board but they are very busy and sometimes do not have time to delve down into the detail of what certain comments might actually mean - this is often the reason for the divergence of SP's from VALUE (PRD is very far being unusual in that - Tesla had that problem for a very long time (I was on that bus) but there it flipped and, in my view, went well, well north of VALUE).
Even if we use my numbers (see post below) - and I do understand I have under-priced the bcf and, thus, tcf values- we get to £16.50 per share in VALUE.
Before any of the LL crowd have kittens, I am not suggesting ANYTHING about the SP and what it could or should do. And I have been totally consistent in my view that the SP is frequently dis-connected from VALUE.
If one probability weighted to 95-5 against (put simply, 5% of that number coming home), the number is 82.5p (5% of £16.50).
The current SP is 5.55p.
That could be some accounted some decent pricing arbitrage.
Not all the clippers always made it home.
The Cutty Sark always made it home.
FWIW, I believe the good ship PRD likely to emulate the Cutty Sark and make it home.
And much of the reason I believe that is because of the serious quality of fact-based data posted on here by you, GRH, Wacky, Methodology, KeithOz, Adon, etc.
And before anyone has kittens about me "praising everyone", read the posting of those and see that I am doing nothing but giving praise where praise is due.
Fact-based data research, based on what can only have been huge amounts of time and effort, provided at no cost to a BB.
Because their research is pretty amazing, whatever one make think of their conclusions from said research.
I have never made any secret that I think some of the bigger numbers for VALUE posted on here could actually be conservative.
That does not make me a ramper.
It just makes me an investor (who has invested a decent chunk of change here) who thinks there is a MASSIVE VALUE aritbrage here.
I could be wrong.
In this case, I think that to be (possibly significantly) unlikely.
I fully take aboard (!) (MEM is a pilot, for those that don't know) your comments on the price per bcf being too low.
So, the numbers could be significantly north.
As regards the serious investors, I would know (very well) and I know one of them has already built a small position over the last 4 weeks while looking at the whole opportunity.
It is very possible that they - including that investor - decide to pass. Everyone must do as they decide.
If they did decide to pass, that would be fine by me. I would still be very much in myself (and I am). I have always been confident in the VALUE so, on my own investment, I am very comfortable with the situation.
I am actually more than quite optimistic about the situation (recentally SP squalls notwithstanding).
I know there are some seriously smart people on here who really know their O&G stuff (and then some).
I be but a mere itinerant investment banker currently in Africa, but I do know some people with some serious money looking at this (and they are not O&G types at all), so I am going to try and translate to real numbers (SP or VALUE, howseover extracted, probably special dividend).
So, for the technically knowledgeable on here, please do not waste any further time and skip on to better postings than mine.
But,as I understand it, a bcf in-ground is worth about $3.5m net to PRD. Let us call that £2.5m.
Let us take what you believe to be the minimum of 4 tcf (so, 1,000 x a bcf). (And I have read your postings at some depth and think you really do know what you are talking about and are more likely to be right than wrong - anyone who has doubt should read MEM's posting history).
Let us just halve that to 2 tcf (50% of your conservative estimate) for the point I wish to illustrate.
2tcf at net £2.5m per bcf, comes out to a PRD VALUE of £5 billion.
Which is around £16.7p a share.
Which would be very interesting, given the current SP.
And is not far off what one very wise chap on here, GRH, suggested the likely VALUE level to be.
No-one should go counting chickens.
The ship has not berthed till she has berthed.
But at least the destination has some hard numbers to which one can assign probability-weighting.
And they look quite attractive, even if one probability-weights heavily against.
DYOR, blah, blah, blah - but I would suggest that much of that research should be into postings by GRH, MEM, Wacky, Methodology, etc because I think that, in that range of people who really do seem to know what they are talking about, there is really something very SPECIAL here.
MEM is, I sure, much ore than capable of defending his credibility.
But, for any that may not be sure of what could be going on here, I would suggest you read the respective posting histories of MEM and Tom58.
And make you mind up then.
The credibility gap would become very apparent very quickly.
Any credibility deficit is most certainly not on the MEM side, whether you agree with him or not (just read the sheer quality of his posts versus Tom58's stuff - different league, entirely).
To any BIG external investors (and you know who you are...........) looking at this BB, have a close read of the postings of GRH, MEM, Wacky, Metholodogy, Obahdia, Private Tesla, TT-T, Androcles, Nicodemus, vegasnomore, Adon.
It will take a fair while because they have all posted a fair bit over a long period of time (for which, I for one, am very grateful).
And some have taken a fair bit of flak on the journey home.
It will be well, VERY WELL, worth the reading of their posts.
Just my view before the weekend, which I hope will be a good one for all here.
I am a major fan of PG.
Rather less an admirer of his advisors.
A CEO should NEVER, NEVER EVER opine on the SP at any given moment.
That is the job of investors, whether informed or otherwise, not the CEO.
That is just an observation.
I would hardly be on the good ship PRD (to some amount of invested capital) if I did not think PG a great captain....
Maybe even more than great.
I agree with you GRH (now there's a surprise for the Kingons).
I think you might not have been exactly right on 45p had the RNS's not resembled Phil Tufnell's fielding.
I think it more likely to have been 42p.
Anyone confused, have a Google of Douglas Adams......
Your writings are excellent.
But, as you know from my past postings, I am EXTREMELY wary of you and your motivations (and often wonder if it is CluelessTim avatar - very articulate and seemingly reasonable - and poses many things as a question).
But, for the moment, I will contemplate the possibility that there might be bona fides in your question.
The initial crystallisation point (whether into SPV, JV, whichever structure is used) should be high - the tail (royalty stream can be low).
The royalty stream itself can be securitiesed to further enhance the VALUE crystallisation NOW.
To be very celar, I am not advocating selling CCS/EOR at a discount - it was why I was here in the first place - but that using the appropriate structure wil extract the maximum NPV NOW.
Not fannying about waiting years for dribbles of royalty streams.
The SPV can take that riks - there are lots of investor types that would be happy to take that kind of income stream.
But it is much more akin to debt/bond return than equity - which is really about crystallised VALUE in a relatively constrained time frame.
The Cutty Sark usually made it home from China in about 120 days.
Those on this ship have waited longer - and quite a few longer than me - so the time aspect, whilst helpful, is not a big problem.
CCS/EOR could be worth a lot to PRD, whatever structure is used to crystallise that VALUE.
I have been saying that for quite some time.
But I think it likely well north of $10m (2.5p per share).
Well, well north.
Risk:reward ratios are important in any investment decision.
Many of the really clever people on here (GRH, MEM, etc) were here for Morocco.
I have come to understand from them and other research that they have likely been spectacularly right.
But I came in here first for CCS/EOR (because I am really a tech investor, not really an O&G investor).
And I have bought at very price levels, including at 17.8p (not my best piece of timing ever!).
But my base case was always CCS/EOR and if that is just worth $10m (STG 7.4m) - or about 2.5p a share - then I must have really gotten things totally wrong and be a totally useless investor (that might be very possible).
Of course, I know that most the investors in PRD are actually in for Morocco and that, for them CCS/EOR was a sideshow.
They may very well be right.
For me, CCS/EOR was the main reason to come in (one reason I have stayed and bough much more was because I came to see the bigger play).
And I think that 2.5p a share for CCS/EOR - whilst absolutely understandable, given the publicly disclosed information - may be south of what could be crystallised there.
It is very difficult to do much evaluation outside of publicly disclosed information (and I am definitely not pivy to any undiscled information as regards PRD).
The upside varies significantly field to field and is very much dependent on the nature of the vehicle structure (royalties, licence, equity participation, etc).
I am not privy to any of that knowledge as regards PRD, though I am more than passingly familiar with how to set up such structures.
Properly licensed across various Trinidad fields, I have been consistent over nearly 18 months, that the number could be 200p.
That pre-supposes it was properly structured and licensed and that it was sold into a royalties SPV to extract the terminal value immediately without waiting for the cash flows.
My views on the investment banking advice PG is taking are well known to anyone who is bored enough to read my posts. And they be not favourable.
So, HM, I think there is a decent case at $10m and that can be backed up by the numbers you ran.
Done right, it could be well, well north of that.
No-one should take one iota of notice of my opinion.
Still less base any investment decision on it.
But, structured right, there could be some serious value in CCS/EOR - and that then that value crystallised could be further force-multiplied into Morocco (where the real clever boys on here have opined as to possible VALUE there).
DYOR, etc, etc.