Member Info for Tillerman

Having used mealatonin for jet lag from time to I think there is some pointless obsessing going on here as well as a simplistic over reliance on ChatGPT. It isn't going to make anyone fall alseep driving, it is nothing like traditional sleeping tablets but more of an enabler you need to work with, see for example

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/wellness-and-prevention/melatonin-for-sleep-does-it-work

NC, Not sure the current turnover of Croda beauty is the kind of containing factor you seem to imagine. An ingredient like Zenakine (don't tell me actually they paid someone to come with with that name), could easily be capable of expanding that figure dramatically given its list of attributes. If ever an ingredient was tailor made for a hurricane level viral marketing campaign, surely this the one.

Worth bearing in mind the annual global market for antidepressants is 20-30bn, and growing circa 8% a year. Typically a pharma antidepresasnt will produce an improvement in just 20 patients in 100 more than the placebo response. There might thus be a significant market for people wanting to avoid official prescriptions or suppliment them with a natural approach with fewer/no side effects (such as reduced sleep quality issues with some pharma product!) and the bonus added skincare benefits.

I see someone has posted the link below on ADVFN and claims it is the Lysate despite the very obvious presence of a giant floating hairbrush and the use of the word 'bond' in the text i.e "innovative bond building ingredient". People will believe what they want.

https://www.crodabeauty.com/en-gb/stay-connected/something-new-is-coming?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email_beauty_english_global_product+launch_2025-04-02_bond+buildng+teaser_0_mlt_0_0_0_incosmetics+2025_0_0_0&sc_camp=DBCAEBEBFAD34834C22D5F950583EE84

Different CGT treatment is a possible reason to convert, e.g. some tax shelters exclude warrants to cite a straightforward example.

The absolute best case scenario is being pushed here relentlessly aginst a backdrop of insider selling and no insider buying.

Consider that if the lysate is just viewed as a useful ingredient rather than a stand alone blockbuster you can cut all those best of best case forecasts by 90%+, secrecy allows shareholders to indulge in wish fulfilment fantasies on a grand scale. Best case on a hyper ramped AIM stock almost never eventuates, especially where the management has form.

LOL

Looks like major insider dumping here imho, 5 million or so at 9p. It is a wonder to me that Elrico still has any subscribers. Bad news as soon as tomorrow? They are not exactly subtle.

If you are prepared to take a view over several years you could do okay here. Assuming delisting goes ahead I can see this being relisted in 4 or 5 years time at the equivalent of 20-30p (£100-150million Cap) with both drugs on the market, and assuming 80% dilution en-route circa 10p. Of course selling in the meantime won't be at all easy and there is always the realistic possibility of things going wrong, leading to a worse, or even zero, outcome.

"The crucial test for him now is how he deals with a very difficult situation", which he himself has probably been influential in helping to create.

You might say he was doing a good job on the COO level with the day to day running of the company but is showing a lack of experience as CEO level beyond just taking strategic technical decisions.

Also, maybe he was at least partially, and possible mainly, motivated by a desire to be a force for good on the antibiotic front, when he joined the co, having made his money at GW.

Looking good value as the self inflicted uncertainty drags on, but the worry is if they can't get even a partial deal on lead product xf-73, what does that say about the prospects for any product on the XF platform being of interest to big pharma?

Imo they need a minimum 15million contribution if they can't attract full funding. Selling the co may yet be more attractive.

SP holding up reasonably well considering, some kind of support at 10p?? That could be a straw in the wind IF it was broker related, very speculative though..

"My interpretation is CT came on board because he thought it would be a slam dunk"

Maybe if Tovey was an AIM investor he would have been that reckless but as an incoming very experienced COO I am 100% sure he did his due diligence and would have understood the dual issues of M3 reformulation and the need for a new trial design for Nasal before arrival, and indeed been questioned by the BOD extensively about his approach to both issues before being appointed. That is how it works in the real world. Whether he forseaw the precise situation they are in now is another matter.

The danger is that the company will end up so diluted it would take years to get back to the price they could achieve now for a sale, and that is assuming all goes well in trials, China does not invade Taiwan, etc. Hard to know how enthusiastic investors would be without big pharma doing at least a majority share of the lifting. Yet any kind of formal agreement is probably months away at best, all in all a bit Catch-22.

The uncertainty could drag on for weeks, it really is amateur hour here. Faintly possible they had some kind of financing basically in place before the shambles of an AGM. A sale of the co is probably the least bad option now imo, but to progress Nasal some kind of deal that includes marketing by a major is essential, financing it all themselves then hoping for the best is not an option.

Pretty certain that selling the co is one option they will be looking at, I doubt any kind of large placing is possible amongst the uncertainty they have created. In the review announcement they said not currently in talks re a takeover, in itself a hint.

So what we would be an achievable price? 25-30p max at a guess given the value of the Sebela deal. A RENX style maintenance placing if required to give them time to sell should be possible, as should raising enough cash for a further 12 months and cutting costs and refocusing. Given the current val of about 6mill plus cash an offer or 'in talks' statement is possible anyday, but probably best to stay on the sidelines for now.

For whatever reason that presentation was not aimed at promoting the SP, possibly so they could present an offer as a good deal, possibly for some other reason.

Mind you selling a 100million packets OTC for $2 profit a time to worried people in Japan vs a few thousand prescription cases at $1500 dollars each, you begin to see the power of prohylactics.

Perhaps just possibly in the long term as a prophylactic, never as a treatment for the full blown condition.

POLX is a primarily a medical device startup is it not? Those are rarely good investments ime. I don't follow it but looked at it briefly a while back and dismissed it for that reason. Also US Co's listing in the UK is usually a red flag by itself .

The obvious medical device comparison for Dest is not POLX but Ondine (a Canadian co listing on the AIM is also a red flag imo), despite this and a poor record they have had no problem raising cash recently and on an ongoing basis on the back of their story, which is in the same space as but rather less compelling than Dest's imo.

The presentation was poor and did not look like something intended to drum up interest in a fund raising imo, they can do much better than that, for example very little was said about M3 which is curious in itself. Plus if Ondine can raise cash with little fuss Dest can, especially with their board. Finally the SP fell on relatively minor volume so there will only be limited stock at these levels.