Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
This will 100% go through. TB are a CASH buyer . . . .
Talking of odds of the takeover succeding:
‘Schemes of arrangement provide a more certain path to success. Consistent with 2020, we saw schemes of arrangement deliver much higher success rates as compared to takeovers in 2021 (90% vs 55%).15 Mar 2022”
Given the holdings of the original investors, EBT, and employees set to get £440m (Sunday Times), maybe the odds are more likely to be 99% plus.
I can see this drifting towards 560s the longer it drags out so the sooner they get it done or new bidders declare interest the better for holders
Bravo are a good fit , but Jeffries might be able to find another buyer with deep pockets
Because now everyone knows Darl is up for sale
Bravo are good robber barons
Don’t forget staff and directors and other shareholders want more higher price , there is pressure to vote no , and pressure to get the price higher
The USD exchange rate is certainly a a head wind for us to get 620 even …. At this price we are all screwed out of what could have been
And I am 99% percent the deal will go through, Poppy et all become mega rich and the LSE becomes more of a laughing stock
Love it
https://www.ft.com/content/40a01e74-7eb1-4d76-a34a-1e7fdb827bbe
Yes the USD pound exchange rate likely not move in our favor
Jeffries will do it’s best to increase the offer and start a bidding War , I am 69 % sure the price will jump towards 821.5 p
Forecast is 1.37 USD/GBP Nov 2024
$7.75 = £5.66 some 8.7% below offer in Apr 2024
$7.75
@ 1.25 = £6.20
Variance 1.2 to 1.4
@ 1.2 = £6.46
@ 1.3 = £5.96
@ 1.4 = £5.54
Also in 8-9 months the USD to GBP could easily fluctuate 1.2 to 1.4
$7.75 could easily £5.95 which is why I think it will hover around 600
Unlikely we will see 1.2 lows USD/GBP
A stronger £ isn’t good news for this deal over an 8-9 month period
I have to agree. They have prior connectivity having rebuffed them previously. i cannot see anyone making a move to step in so £6.20 seems right to me once contracts finalised.
I bought AA in 2020 when in trouble and talks of takeover started and came and went with withdrawn offer/failed offer
Bought 15 Sold 30
Bought in again 22 Sold 40
Bought in again 22 sold 36
Stopped there but it did go 36 down 32 back 36
Before final sale
Anything can happen here
They state it won’t get through court & vote until late Q3/Q4
4-9 months of fun here
I’ll sure be trading any drops on negative news or share price drifts as people sell (like I did) to get stagnant cash out - why leave it sitting idle for potentially 8 months?
Clank - no it will have no impact, as the offer has now been made. I very much doubt anyone else will step in either; like highly unlikely. So, £6.20 (give or take depending on the US v GBP exchange rate) is what you will receive when the contracts are finalised. ATB
Please excuse the naive question, but if a majority of shareholders decide to sell next week and take their profits, wont that cause the share price to tumble from it's current price regardless of any prospective bidding war?
Hi CR888,
No problem, Mirriad's problem is that its totally flown under the radar for so long, personally I'd never heard of the company until the 8th of April, but dig deeper with the help of a couple of oracles on where all its tentacles go & suddenly you see a £100M+ company staring you in the face & I'm not just saying that.
go here https://www.mirriadplc.com/investor-relations/reports-and-documents & download the 25th August 2023 presentation.
Page 7 & you'll soon get the idea, but it might not be for you.
As for trends, well Helium is the one that will definitely explode, trouble is no-one yet has found a viable source of it. Yes exploration is now occurring but all the targets have unanswered question including London listed HE1 & HEX so not worth going there yet, but Helium is a dead cert because of the absolutely dire need for it.
If I come across anything of note I'll let you know.
Good Luck
LOTM
Share and fund ideas listed in Uk welcome
Thanks for your idea
I am looking for medium risk although can do a few smaller puts on things like your idea
For example China is low now , so maybe buy some china funds and wait 3 to 5 years , almost sure bet for 30 per cent up
Or liontrust is low ? Brwm is low a commodity fund ?
Big trends that we ca buy into
Hi CR888,
Re
"Darktrace is Sexy...........whether 620 p or 820p .....where to invest the proceeds.... which UK listed funds or Shares are low now with a 25% upside or more , within next 12 months ??? your top 3 ideas???
AI Cyber/UK the leader in big industry in UK
https://sponsorcontent.cnn.com/edition/2024/ukdbt/cyber-scaleups-are-experiencing-significant-growth-in-the-uk/?utm_medium=cnn&utm_source=hpnat&utm_campaign=ukdbt_A3_emea "
It might not tick all your boxes, but will for AI & the potential upside is multiples of your 25% target. Mirriad - MIRI
I know its small right now but worth checking out, has a collaboration with Microsoft & Microsoft have done a webinar with them that has yet to be published. They have 40% of USA Content providers signed up & talking to another of the top 3 that would take them to over 55% of the market.
Some of those Content providers are going to showcase the Mirriad solution in there highly anticipated TV Upfronts 2024 presentations in May, starting possibly on May 13/14th, can't be sure because Mirriad has never officially named the signed Content providers. & yet here we are, where some of those Content providers are going to reveal themselves.
Good luck with your research & hopefully a better offer price for DARK
LOTM
Thanks HKK , Lending
If the vote fails to pass we face a drop of 80 p to 530 p then a rise towards 600 p if ML court case not derail Poppy and Dark ( 10 per cent chance )
Dark board have been promised something by Bravo and KKR wants cash out with the other
But but but KKR and the other one , would love to see a higher price now with second bid from others ( because one Dark is sold it’s colds ) and KKR are greedy
So likely Dark will receive another Bid
Therefore 820 could be more or less final price after Bravo up their price
This scenario not so unlikely 40 per cent likely ?
HKK - I like your reasoning, and I’m sure you are right regarding 1. Rereading the RNS it seems to me that DT was leading the aagenda and KKR and Summir were at te forefront.
The whole tone of the RNS too, is on how DT will prosper better under TB than our own BoD. If that is not an admission of inc ompetence by our BoD what is it?
Who controls how many votes ?
Can someone add up the votes ?
Good analysis HKK
If Poppy thinks 620 p saves dark from court case and she still need to testify ? Then 620 p could be it , however I think there is a 30 per cent chance for Jeffries to find another buyer at 720 to 750 p … because they announced 890 p recently I sense they knew this bid was coming
How long does a new bidder have ? 30 days or 60 ? Or 90 ?
When will the vote be ?
I am not sure how many shares the big shareholders have ? How much does retail have .. I sense the vote might pass the sale if no better bidder comes
Investment banks are hungry for deals , huge lack of IPO and M and A … I am sure more than Jeffries Ibd are trying their luck to find a buyer …
I am still holding … Dark in the hope a new buyer emerges
Then we could have 720 to 750
I still think Bravo are a good partner for Dark so they may increase to 820 p and we are all sadly bought out !
820 is my target
I believe even if 620 is not approved by a vote , Dark shares will still get there within this year ( but I will miss out buying on the dip )
As i previously commented
There are still a few scenarios at play here as they stated Q3/Q4 until its possibly gets done, thus;
1. Alternative offers come through push over 620
2. It fails vote and SP drops 25-35% like 2022
3. It goes to vote and is approved at 620
I sold my entire holding at 620 because if scenario 3 comes to play (high probability) then I've got my cash now vs leaving as dead wood until Q4. It also allows me to jump back in should scenario 2 happen (possible but less likely but could happen). Scenario 1 is the only one I potentially loose on but this is least likely.
We brits love short selling and killing our own companies which is why the LSE is a joke of a market
This pathetic offer that makes the Ceo a multi millionaire and makes Thoma Bravo billions in profit overnight should be rejected.
It does not begin to reflect the true value of Darktrace