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Allegedly!
Also said 'you are all getting yourselves worked up over nothing. The markets have been volatile globallysince Friday. The small cap space has been especially volatile. There is no need to interpret the share price as an interpretation on the company's operations.'
So make of that what you will, if legit....
Come on LB surely you can come up with something better than that,
Name a stock on the markets when placings end up in the hands of pi's.
Then we can all put some money in it and be happy.
The suggestion that Art is playing 4d chess and hiding positives in order to negotiate a favourable price for cuda...
The problem with this, given that the timescale for acquiring cuda is likely to be a matter of months, possibly several, is that it doesn't give much incentive for buyers of the stock up to then.
What are people's thoughts on that?
Is there a document we sign well before sale competition to say we will buy at that price and Administration have to sell to us, legally binding?
A question for the business folk on here.
There would likely be a an mou signed prior to completion of purchase once a figure has been agreed . There will likely be caveats in it in both directions so would not be 100% binding in case of different events . Receivers tend to either want to sell quickly if there isn’t much for their fees or drag it out if it’s a good pay day to milk . Either way they don’t give a flying **** about anyone but themselves , literally.
Would this process begin after the various bankrupcy hearings, of which what looks to be only a very preliminary one to establish the proceeding as a foreign main is scheduled for the 30th of December, or would the auction be ongoing through the proceedings?
http://cfcanada.fticonsulting.com/Cuda/UScourtMaterials.htm
Rolls Royce, British Airways, Petrofac, etc. A long list.
Morning all.
So we have raised funds, it was overscribed and went to existing holders.
Those holders are already down on original investment but still invested more.
Can we all agree that these multi million companies know ‘a little more’ about future COPL activities then someone writing on a public BB on a Saturday morning?
Also, the fact that nothing priced in and we are below Atomic purchase price?
If you answer yes then stick on that tin hat, head down and wait for developments.
Who knows, CR out the way, we could be scrapping our hinds at the bottom.
Morning.
Following John's post which mentions possible perforation of Dakota on Monday.
Assuming a pumpjack will be used for this well and all goes well are we looking at circa 2 weeks before production starts?
You can't just say it's below the Atomic purchase price because there's the debt to take into account.
Well come on then Iron,
you are the market man where do you think we are going,
i am not a market man but will give you my thoughts.
I think AM may have been planning this even before we came out of suspension and had already informed the bigger ii's of his plan.
He probably knew that Hadron would sell out in relist thus killing the sp stone dead,
since then we had small rallies which were quickly stifled,
then when AM knew he could not get Cuda without receivership the plan had to be changed slightly ,
the ii',s were asked to drive the price down to this level( with the added sweetener of LB's 50 % discounted placement ).
They were happy to oblige because they know from the horses mouth
( what the good researchers on this board have already worked out ).
They cannot lose.
without Cuda + news there will be a rerate.
With Cuda + news will be an even bigger rerate.
If you examine the trading over the preceeding weeks you find mostly matched trades passing beteen th ii's thus controlling where we go.
What do you think ?
Well tbh the doomsayers predicted the correct direction of the price so far not all those that predicted much higher prices.Thats a fact that can`t be denied.We`ve gone nearly as low as we were before Atomic you would imagine the only way is up now but how long that takes is anyones guess.I just hope the Fed deeps give a shot in the arm and not a kick in the teeth!
Would 10-15p, representing roughly a 17-25m market cap, be unthinkable?
That's the question I'm asking myself as I decide whether to hold this stock.
On the one hand I'd say yes because our assets and near and medium term production upside are immensely better than the oil stocks languishing at that level.
On the other hand there is the debt, which is far higher than that of those other stocks I'm comparing this with, and which magnifies every failure of management here.
So yes, we need some good news now to prove that the value is more than speculative.
Second question: down the line, are we vulnerable to a loan restructuring transferring share equity to debt?
Would that have to be voted on at an agm?
Yes Lb that is correct also,
but the dilution has stayed in house with our own ii's.
They are clearly convinced the sp issue is not a problem.
I am sure they know far better than us.
So why are you worried abut it.
https://youtu.be/HC9-7fIIc3c?list=LL
Stop the world i wanna get off
Because if the stock is strong, there should be stronger counterpoints in the debate. That's why we debate here, or should be.
I'm staying in because I agree, there are multiple areas for rapid progress. But after a 25 percent dilution, which did not follow great and uplifting news but rather a series of seemingly unforced errors, there's much less slack afforded to failures going forward, and it's as well to take stock because the proposition has changed somewhat.
For investors who bought in at relist, a 70 million market cap is now required before they see profit. Is that realistic in the short or medium term?
Restructuring loan for debt at the current production levels would be unlikely.
There was c.$11M cash pile plus $7.5M placing, so we are sitting comfortably with c.$20M.
AM always seems to go to heavy on shareholders to either surreptitiously acquire (as per July 2020’s Ryder Scott CPR) or as seen in March to hedge against an extended down time.
Last night’s nautical themes then had one considering that this ship could only ever be named the SS Attrition. Is that why AM put extra cash into the books ? Perhaps. We can see that Cuda may take a while, with a 30th December sitting on preliminaries, so during this extended down-time when you can’t advertise to possible bidders that you may have a significant Fed Deep reservoir in addition to perhaps a second BFU well at 750bopd. Hence… lots of attrition. 10p to 15p and is possible but I suspect that at least some news flows will be forthcoming, to then keep this closer to 30 - 32p which was the support price for almost 6 weeks and which was the price that Tennyson started unloading to their cronies at.
Thanks dougb189, that was a very helpful post.
'Competitive reasons'... I hope this means hiding success to keep the cuda price low, because it could equally mean hiding a lack of success in order to gather funding for cuda!
Some things you can feint and AM couldn’t feint his reactions to the 25% increase in production achieved within a two week spell prior to immediately shutting down the excess production for ‘safety reasons’. As apposed to the body language exposed whenever his ‘3% holdings’ got mentioned.
In addition of course is the simple metric that if Fed Deep was a duster and was loudly advertised as such it would then see Cuda sitting with a price tag in single figures.
Lokanraej, how is 30m 25% of 164m? As with LB, if you can't get the most simple things right, why should we take any notice of anything else you might say.
Lokan i agree about Dougs post,
There is merit about the bad news arguement,
this would certainly be the doomsday scenario and is always possible,
but would it explain what is going on with the placement ,
he is clearly trying very hard to get it,, but if he only had bad news would the ii's have bought in ?,
also if our WI was worthless so would the Cuda portion be he could have waited longer and got for an even smaller price,
and saved his placement for when / if the Nigerian situation starts move.
GLA.
You are right, I forgot the 500k fee, and I was using the lse market cap, which says 33m. That is better.
Is the real market cap at 19.80pence 38.5 million?
'In addition of course is the simple metric that if Fed Deep was a duster and was loudly advertised as such it would then see Cuda sitting with a price tag in single figures.'
Another good point.
Yes Brel, nothing priced in.
So if we get to 30p on NO FURTHER NIEWS, what spin will the ‘arm chair geologists’ use.