If you want positives to prove I'm not a deramper, it's the miscible flooding, the reserves and the oil in place. The reason I invested is that I just can't see that going wrong, relative to other oilers who have to keep doing risky drills for their bread and butter, medical and tech companies who have to keep innovating and winning contracts and so on. Copl has the wells in place and anything else like a discovery is a bonus.
I was posting questions on the senx telegram board before the results. I sold before the results at a small loss. The sp didn't treble, it fell after I had sold.
I ended up back in copl because I prefer this style of management ultimately. Senx played it safe and will probably come good but at a much later date. Art seems much more active in building something here, difficult though it has been for investors.
I may sound negative, Brel (not Art of course!) and others, and I know people don't want to hear negativity on a stock board. I do think this will come good, certainly more confident in it than other stocks I've looked at.
Seriously no, I am in, and I'm still relatively confident about the stock. After what happened the other day with the placing, I think we can be allowed to entertain some doubts, but the basic story here hasn't changed. Production is increasing and we are funded, with a new discovery. Good luck all.
I've only seen a couple of interviews, but Art strikes me as, and this is the kind version because I am a kind man, a well-meaning, enthusiast-optimist who tends to handwave away his own doubts and the doubts of others, and therefore thinks big and neglects detail. And his personality is projected onto this board, which collectively resembles his psyche and occasionally as with dougb189, takes the form of his superego.
I have looked at the numbers and I remember that they looked fine at the time, you are right that I don't concentrate on them; I know that the numbers are always something of a work of fiction and always work on paper.
The point I'm making is that I've also seen other companies go round the block developing promising assets and end up successful without rewarding shareholders. You have to factor in problems arising, and they have here right off the bat. With high debt involved, there's less margin for error here.
It's gone from treble your money on relist to maybe get half your money back by Christmas. But if two things happen 1. Dakota well produces and recovers the millions spent and 2. most importantly we get unassailable confirmation of the incline curve then I'll be confident going forward.
I'm just tired of best case scenarios presented as likely, they so seldom are.
We'd be making about 1.4 million a month roughly at present, is that a fair guess? And the debt repayments from March are significantly more, plus we're drilling and doing workovers, plus there was an equipment upgrade. The WTI is approaching the hedged price at the moment and could go lower.
Ok, I'd guess about a year if production doesn't increase, but then the debt repayments increase because we take on more debt?
What I fear following the placing and gas and upgrade delay, and the problems with the federal deep sands, are that we go on as we began with further delays or operational or exploration failures which take this down to 10-15p. Then it languishes, more placings are required to fund drilling as cash is short following operational delays, equipment failure and downtime, and well and exploration failures. These things always seem to happen in oil companies so you need slack, you need to get in at a good price.
Market cap holds up but the sp is now 7 or 8p following the dilution. Cuda is eventually acquired at a highish price requiring another 3 or 4 million raise, the sp is now 5p. Eventually the company turns itself around, the predicted increases take hold, in a year or two the market cap is several hundred million and the sp is around 30-35p.
I'm not saying this is likely. I'm saying we need to see some success now to stave off this narrative.