We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
(Meaning I don't find that mysterious at all. Releasing reserves actually highlights that oil's out of control, because to do so admits that they don't see an end to it. And governments don't usually manage to shape markets long term, so it could be construed as bullish from that pov)
I don't really understand what's going on here.
The extra production has changed the story for me, but it hasn't changed the price. The federal deep discovery is a bonus, it doesn't underpin the value of the company. If I have funds at the right time I'm buying back in.
I find this very odd now.
The broker's note is rather pessimistic about 2022. Does anyone have any idea as to why it was pulled from twitter, what its purpose was supposed to be, and whether it is likely that the company has anything better to report.
Or is that compression for the two wells and they are writing on the assumption that the first compression unit has been installed already?
Artificial lift was always going to be operational in 2022 but possibly delivered in December, as I saw it anyway.
'For 2022, Serinus is planning a
compression programme for the M-1003 and M-1007 wells, which is designed to lower
the compression pressure from 500psi to 285p'
Wait, so compression is delayed and the artificial lift is not until 2022 as well?
Why didn't they rns? Compression was supposed to be delivered in August.
A big sell right after my estimates! I doubt it's connected but just to be clear, those are conservative predictions for the upside and pessimistic for the downside. It has the potential to do a lot better with the current gas/oil prices looking to remain high in the medium term at least.
A lot of investors waited most of the year in suspension. Much was promised and by this point disbelief can't be suspended anymore. There has to be some material, certain progress, not more hopes and 'we expect, we believe'.
There's a lot of interest in this stock, clearly, it's got a good story and I for one still want to buy in because the upside is tremendous (and I would have yesterday at 20 if funds were available). But I think many investors have shown a lot of patience already and it hasn't been rewarded so far.
Forgot to add the 1-1.5p is predicated on declines being higher than expected too. That's my worst case scenario though I'm sure there are worse cases!
I think it's just the radio silence that leads to that kind of thinking though. Logically, the increased revenues from gas prices and oil prices should derisk the company by providing funds for development, for liabilities etc and they are in a good position should the work programme be advanced in a reasonable timescale.
My view: if compression is working and the decline is minimal and the financials are good then it could get to 3p.
If the artificial lift is on time and works as predicted, 3.5-4p/
If a solution is found to sancrai, on its own 3-3.5p.
If all that good stuff happens then yes we could see 5-6p or even more if more drilling announced.
If compression and artificial lift are delayed, no solution for sancrai, no extra plans, capex higher than expected, financials not great, then 1-1.5p.
Completely intuitive guesses.
I completely agree, they are running the business as if it's a serious, established producer, which they very much see themselves as, perhaps because of the scale of their assets, whereas that's actually in the future.
What I want to know to make my investment decisions is a. production levels month to month, which is a fair ask given declining wells and b. I'd like to know about the progress made on compression. Saying it is due in August then not updating on that for 3 months suggests (by aim standards) that it has been delayed, though I am half optimistic that it actually has been installed already.
If compression was delayed for a long period, would this delay compel an rns given that it seems price sensitive?
Why didn't they announce compression delivered in August though?
The bullish factor is the price of gas, and there has been no slide without news so as you say, no news may be good news, or at least nothing bad has leaked - after this long I'd assume that informed investors would know if something was wrong and the sp would slide.
Question: can there be a reason for no news for so long that is not a negative reason?
I think there can, and I think it's to do with the company not playing the Aim news game historically, and preferring to put everything into quarterly reports and investor presentations. But at the same time I thought there might be something on compression that hasn't materialised so I'm a bit concerned.
Any thoughts?