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I don't usually buy that thesis; people say it on every board when the stock is languishing... But... The trading does look a bit odd.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/european-gas-rises-record-100-061053096.html
Apparently around 190 dollars per barrel of oil equivalent.
We may see demand destruction eventually, but does anyone have an idea of our netback on that price, and to what extent are we locked into contracts vs our revenues tracking the price?
Because it looks like a game changer for Serinus, I can't see how it could not be.
I doubled my money on rmm.
But my portfolio also looks grim. Biggest loss was buying on a spike of Braveheart Investments when they had good results for their covid test and people were saying they'd treble...
I'm not sold on the CEO or the hype/narrative of COPL. I know they have a great asset but there are lot of producers with great assets which don't have a 50m mk. When/if they have 5000bopd net then sure.
SENX also has great assets, arguably better, definitely better longer term if they can exploit them. But then I would say that now I'm invested!
It was between this or UOG, but again, I don't trust the CEO. So far I've lost on everything where the CEO looked dodgy to me and I ignored it - Argo Blockchain, COPL, BZT... made a fair bit on WSBN by following my instinct about the CEO and selling at the top of a short-lived rise, same with ECR.
There are just too many ways a company can disadvantage investors. SENX has done so too when it made sense for it, retiring their debt into equity then granting the BOD lots of incentives; I don't trust them either, but I think that at this time that's not part of their strategy.
All year, production has gone down, the sp has gone down. More bopd, this is going up.
Any other rises are temporary. Show sustainable, increasing profits, it's going up.
Yes, in spring I was buying stocks to see them double in days. None of those are doing well now.
Stocks go up a few percent on news then slide further down, then go down again on bad news.
But most of those penny stocks did nothing or slid down for years then were ramped to naive private investors like us during covid. Like SENX, COPL...
But the commodity situation is real and probably not ending soon. These are not top notch companies, however, if you've got hundreds of millions of barrels and plans to get that out of the ground, and oil/gas prices give you cash to expand? It's a good bet. For this reason I prefer a company like SENX that is not servicing debt.
I haven't seen a company be ignored that is ACTUALLY producing lots more than previously. I've seen lots of companies try to sell potential and be ignored by the market, whereas in spring the market was buying potential, a story, a dream. Now it's buying certainty; even in a rocketing gas market, the market isn't buying SENX with its vast potential.
Perhaps that is wise, perhaps that's the market's mistake, because at least one thing SENX is doing, the Tunisian well lift programme, is not very risky from what I can gather.
And i mean confidence that they want the sp to rise and will work towards that. Whereas with COPL, I just don't like having to worry about whether and how fast the production is increasing, whether the new discovery is commercial, Nigeria, the not insignificant debt, the consolidation, AND the maverick CEO.
Yeah, I'm on the other side! If this goes up and Copl drifts down after consolidation then i may sell some of this and put it back there.
I reckon this is potentially hugely undervalued but it depends on how fast the gas wells are declining... The company doesn't seem to say anything about current production, which worries me. If we're still close to 2000 barrels or above even, this has got to be fairly safe with the gas prices, right? Because they have so much to develop with that cashflow. But if we're at 1700 or something and falling fast then that's a problem.
I see this as riskier medium term, copl riskier short term. But if the pumps work in Sabria, if the decline is stabilised and not at a low level, then it's all good. But even so, an RNS saying we decided to forget about Sancrai will hit the sp.
I just don't have the knowledge and can't find the information to understand whether wells with 20m pay can usually be made to flow with a bit of tinkering, or whether it's probably a no go.
Also as I said before, not seeing much short term newsflow and covid could delay things in winter.
To be frank I wouldn't put much faith in my opinion... Ive picked a few winners and ive generally avoided getting wiped out, but ive made the wrong call every time i could have made a fortune, which is a few times so far.
I have more confidence in this BOD at this time, than in COPL's.
I would suggest that given the amount of oil and gas they have to exploit, given that they have production increasing projects underway in Tunisia which look low -risk but major, given that should as we speak be stabilising their gas wells and will have the income now to exploit their licenses at a faster rate, this company has everything going for it.
I think the market is still uncertain as to those gas wells though, we don't know what current production and medium term production is/will be - need gas to benefit from high prices.
Maybe on current production, I saw it happen to a neglected gold miner in spring when gold rose... doubled in days. Certainly if any of the company's projects pay off.
I think, looking at the timescale of the plans, there's not much news due immediately except Sancrai (if they find a solution), but certainly some good stuff this year and early next. Imho, what gas and oil prices are doing seems to derisk this, whereas it was a bit risky before.
Link?
http://www.rockriverminerals.com/knowledge-center/oil-and-gas-decline-curves/
Useful and fairly reassuring, perhaps we aren't looking at 24 percent every 6 months but something less apocalyptic?
The problem for this company, or more for current shareholders perhaps, is that it's on a timer, which the price of gas and of oil has slowed but not stopped. Needs the pumps in Tunisia, and/or a Sancrai plan ASAP.
Get anything solid to work and with those prices I think this will rise, perhaps spectacularly.
Does anyone have an idea of current production levels? Do you think we're still over 2000bpd?
From company documents:
'The production exit rate (boe/d) at 30 September 2020 was 2,211 consisting of 1,730 in Romania and 481 in
Tunisia. '
First quarter 2021:
'Production for the period averaged 2,097 boe/d, comprising:
o Romania - 1,495 boe/d.
o Tunisia - 602 boe/d. '
First half 2021:
'Production for the period averaged 2,012 boe/d, comprising:
o Romania – 1,442 boe/d
o Tunisia - 570 boe/d'
'During the six months ended 30 June 2021 production volumes decreased by 483 boe/d (19%) to 2,012 boe/d
(2020 - 2,495 boe/d). The Company’s production volumes declined due to natural well declines and COVID-related
workover delays.
Romania’s production volumes decreased by 461 boe/d (24%) to 1,442 boe/d (2020 – 1,903 boe/d). This was
primarily due to natural well declines. The introduction of compression onto two wells on the Moftinu gas field is
anticipated to stabilize and extend production in the future. '
Anyone have an idea of how fast we might be declining now? From glancing at a few graphs, is it correct to say the decline curve usually levels off? I would hope it's not accelerating.
Thinking of getting back in because it all looks so bullish, but just have this uneasy feeling that the company is building a gold mine without gold.
It's almost as if they got impatient, because they have money, they are so sure of their geology, and if they find lots of gold then everything falls into place. I had the impression before that they knew more than they let on and a major discovery was certain etc, but after listening to the interview, I'm not sure, and I wonder if the extra shareholder placing gave them enough rope to either cart off a wagon of gold, or hang ... well, us.
They are obviously confident, but then they're confident with shareholder cash. Problem is as usual the puzzle won't be solved until it's too late to get in at this share price...
Thankyou, I watched the recent presentation on youtube.
Oil production in Tunisia may go up, however. One thing this company seems to have in its favour is an abundance of possibilities on its licenses.
But obviously Sancrai is tantalising given that pay was encountered.
Yes, and I was asking you to share that research, if you understood the usual results of this kind of intervention, best case/average/worst etc. I agree that the staff of the company seem competent, but they can only work with what they've got, and it's fairly crucial. High gas prices will allow us to drill more wells but that will take time.
So I am just camvassing to see if there are any knowledgeable people around who can offer opinions. Similarly with Sancrai, if anyone has a view on that.
Thanks a lot... that makes sense... this company makes its actual situation a bit opaque.
Thinking of getting back in. If the water issue has been resolved, why am I able to get in at this price/why hasn't this shot back up? Matter of time or sentiment or any other ideas?