Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Just to pop in again briefly as I try not to comment on stocks I've sold out of.
I sold out at a loss at 0.29p not because I don't believe in the story here but because of the uncertainty related to the consolidation, and, I have to say, the CEOs timing after the Zak Mir interview (though consolidtion may have been a response to the inability of the stock to maintain its rise after that interview?). I am definitely looking to get back in, but I'm waiting for some clarity about the consolidation, yes, I know I may miss the boat...
I'll be back either if this drops (which I don't wish on you folks), or if what I'm currently in does well before COPL does, and hope to chat here again soon. I expect I've made a big mistake because the value here seems indisputable, but then so does the lack of regard to shareholder value and communications from management. I said right after relisting 'COPL hasn't established a reputation for creating shareholder vaue yet, but it may well do'... and that seemed to be a decent reason for me to wait this out; as I say, 50/50 or even 60/40 I'm wrong so good luck to all.
Does anyone more knowledgeable than me know anything about the likely gas field decline and how well the compressors will mitigate this? This is happening now, so not something we need to wait ages for.
'· Compression on the Moftinu gas field continues to be advanced with the first compression unit due to be delivered in August. The compression project is designed to stabilise the natural decline of the Moftinu gas field and allow for extended production in the future.' (from interim results)
I was looking at this yesterday; it has decent production, seemingly decent management, lots of potential resources on their licenses, its has active programmes to exploit new resources/increase production/stabilise production, it found a big gas field, found 20m gross pay, and the drill there didn't exactly fail, though it is still uncertain and planning continues, plus it has liabilities but no serious financial issues. Negatives are declining gas production but this is being addressed and, as I said, there is plenty more gas for the taking. With the current gas and oil markets this looks pretty solid going forward.
Because it needs more wells. But yes, it is undervalued as it is; I checked the balance sheet thinking there'd be some horror lurking there, but it looks ok.
Elements of concern: what does 'stabilise production' of the existing gas wells look like, how fast are they declining and how much can this be mitigated?
And chances of success of artificial lift.
Plus costs of all these works plus cost of Sancrai.
And of course if Sancrai can be made to work everything is wonderful.
Any decent news anticipated in the short term?
From the website:
'The Ordovician reservoir at Sabria contains 358 MMbbl OIIP (P50)1, into which only eight wells (12 including re-entries) have been drilled. '
I don't quite understand this. They have 45% interest in 358mmbbl and there are only 8 wells? And drilling here is low risk? Why haven't they drilled 100 wells?
Nigeria/big commercial oil discovery = rocket? But Nigeria won't happen tomorrow.
This already started to if not rocket then vigorously pedal uphill to 0.39ish before the sells hit it. It's not one of those out of favour stocks no one gives a damn about whatever it does, though it could become that after some of the worst case scenarios discussed.
I think we all know that this stock has potential to rise long-term.
8am tomorrow predictions?
I'm leaning towards the pessimistic or heavily pessimistic if news is consolidation and no other news.
But if good news it could also rocket, because I get the sense from the recent short-lived rise that a rerate is very much waiting to happen (but can of course be derailed).
Lets row back here.
Ok, consolation seems probable, though not certain. What might that do to the sp?
A raise to buy some of Cuda's assets, of say 20 percent or less of our mc at 0.31, let's say it's a good deal, adding way more value than the cash. How would that be received?
A raise of 50 percent to buy Cuda PLUS debt...? How did the conversation end up here, at this extreme? We've moved to this worst worst case step by step over 2 days. I think that would be catastrophic for holders at least in the medium term. Would that even be likely? Or wise?
If we diluted by 50 percent then would we not remain undervalued because potential buyers will see it happening again and again to build an empire? And they might be right.
Again to be clear, I am not saying this is likely, there may be no raise, there may be good news instead. But I think a 50 percent dilution would both hurt shareholders in the short term and make the long term prospects of the stock price extremely uncertain. I don’t think we can find much solace in that scenario, worst case as it is.
Panamabob I was asking about that earlier. What is the incentive for Art to reward shareholders at this stage, and what is the disincentive for him to debase our holdings? Weighing that up against the lure of an acquisition or extra funding may give us some sense of where this could go.
I always hear this and it is faulty logic because a loss is for most people more of a problem than a gain. If one sells out then the opportunity cost does not include the original value of the holding. One then has the choice to buy back in or buy elsewhere.
The other side of the argument is that the upside to be forfeited is unlimited, however, stocks do not generally fly up instantly by 1000s of percent and it is very likely that there would be an opportunity to enter on a retrace.
If I knew this was going into the low 20s of course I would sell out and so would most here. Hopefully it won’t come to that though.
I can handle 0.3 for a while, I only panic at the thought of 0.2 as Tiburn suggested. Can value and sp really get so mismatched?
Even now, very troubled companies with 1/10th of our reserves are priced at 1/3 or half of us.