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Copl's first quarter netback was $48.53
Copl's bbl/d was 1114 x 90 days =$4865
Cuda's bbl/d was 477 x 90 days =$2083
Combined is 1600 for a total $6948
Minus .9 million loss on their hedge =approx $6000 first quarter or $2 million per month
This is calculating Cuda's oil netback $48.53 but it may be more, but the financial report doesn't make it clear.
Gla
Arts original predictions for 2022 output was 5000 bpd, but instead we are producing 1600, if the pressure problems can be fixed, then hopefully we will see a greater output, at 3200 this would give us approx $4 million a month profit....all without our new wells. Absolutely no point selling atm, gotta give this 6 months at least. Gla
REVENUE
Hedge total for year remaining table page 18 is 290,982 barrels for period April -Dec 2022, average of 1200 bopd in period.
https://www.canoverseas.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/COPL-Q1-2022-FS-_May16-FINAL.pdf
Total production is 1600 in month lowest rate for April for this example
COPL have confirmed they have been net billing CUDA, assume 85% WI retained for calculation
Net 1360 bopd to COPL
Hedge total 1200 bopd average at $56.58 = $2.06m per month sales revenue
160 bopd remains , plus confidential 120 bopd Dakota well = 280 bopd at $110/b = $955k month
Total revenue = $2.96m a month
COSTS
Tax and royalty at 30% = -$888k
G+A per month -$687k G+A
Loan interest is actually at -$440k /m
Lifting costs at 85%, shared with CNOOC = 1360 x $11/b = -$464k per month
Butane - not required until Q4 - Tallgrass deal liability (page 21) at $1.4m for remainder of 2022
No drilling costs at this time
Cash is on account.
Total monthly cost estimate = $2.48m
Leaving $500k contingency profit banked per month, this at the lowest monthly production rate to date as listed.
Their ability to undertake gas gathering upgrade and drilling is not based on current net revenue or production rate but on the leveraged reserves securing RBL, imminent once CUDA signed off 100%.
COPL are a going concern, examing the published evidence - soon its all systems go.
Cop, you figures are made up in your head, your talking s ...
May @ 49802 divided by 31 days = 1606
Now we seperate Cuda's share @ just below one third = approx 500 of unhedged oil $109 a barrel
Leaving Copl 's share @ 1106 of which 1000 @$56 and 106 @ $109
Total unhedged = approx 606 x 31 days = 18786 x $109 = $2047000
Now hedged...
1000 x 31 = 3100 @$109 =$3380000 minus .$900000 loss on the hedge = $2480000
Gross revenue for May = $2047000 plus $2480000 = $4526000 approx $4.5 million
After production cost and royalties ect, Copl has approx $2 million plus, to cover any interest payments ect
So smile CoplHodler, the future is not as bad as you thought...gla
Sorry forgot to account for the minus 15% not ours...but the facts are there, we're making a monthly profit @ our dire production figures atm...
The only way is UP !!!
Join the party coplHodler !!!gla
Profit is Profit, and COPL maintains its cash flow positive direction now and into the future
GLA LTH More production to come on stream in the second half of the year, to fund future drilling
No doom and gloom here, the high oil price has helped Copl dodge a bullet, plenty of cash from the placing atm to help put things right....my figures were total tosh due to me missing the 15% which equates to about $1million gross of my calcs, but that just shows how much a small increase in production can add in $$$...gla
Every time they post,dont bother being rational with them,merely ASk THEM why they are here. They cannot answer.
Another excellent post Tiburn, just a matter of sitting it out until news starts to hit.
Hoping for a good day today, hoping Fridays NT was for a reason.
GLA genuine holders, them that are not, give up as your negative postings are having no effect on the researched.
Going to open slightly up, blue for a change !
Confirmed 0.60% blue opening
You think jberg not smart enough to play ya even if the seller done?
Still at Bargain Basement price, currently
GLA LTH Under 17p a steal, imo DYOR ,
15K max available, down from £25K on open.
1.20%, COPL owes us a double digit rise
Well just had another buy my last now just wish I had more money
Started from 16.70p to buy - steadily going higher.
08:14:53 17.000 60,000 10.20k O
08:12:27 16.94999 21,000 3,559 O
08:11:32 16.90 1,035 174.92 O
08:06:04 16.90 8,805 1,488 O
08:05:51 16.789 29,781 5,000 O
08:03:16 16.73 4,710 787.98 O
08:02:33 16.73 1,721 287.92 O
08:01:21 16.73 8,965 1,500 O
08:00:22 16.56 2,000 331.20 O
08:00:20 16.70 5,000 835.00 UT
Sums it up beautifully London.
I think JBER are about to move.
17 10,000 JBER 07:31
18 10,000 FCAP 07:53
18 10,000 MREX 07:57
18.2 10,000 SCAP 08:06
18.5 10,000 SING 07:50
18.5 10,000 WINS 07:32
19 10,000 PEEL 07:50
19 10,000 STFL 07:56
20 10,000 CANA 07:51
On the contentions noted:
Agreed - on the costs side, its right to include the CUDA interest - however its a short term bridging loan until RBL kicks in - so not relevant as to the going concern main thrust of the argument - however for the sake of accuracy assume $100k per month for this interim period? however we have no information on this.
As to RS resource report cost - is a one of cost as are other contractors and absorbed from profit/cash on account when commissioned back in December, its also not an ongoing cost affecting COPL as a going concern - not sure of the fee but will be in accounts and so has already been paid for.
It still leaves $400k profit plus cash on account going forward.
Production is actually pretty stable for the last four months, within 10% range , there is no long term trend of reduction affecting this as a going concern or COPL becoming unprofitable over time, just the contrary.
April - 49789
May - 54791
Jun- 50764
Jul - 49802
Also, CUDA hasnt been priced in at all yet as its not 100% confirmed.
Im also encouraged by the progress towards objective reality made by one detractor who has moved from this position May 22nd 20h55:
"So the fact we are loss making and production is dropping is great because it’s still more production than last year."
to this today when sourced evidence is presented to the contrary:
"So, scraping a profit..."
Profit is indeed profit - this situation is the case for just a matter of weeks until RBL allows gas gathering kit to be installed and so production to scale.
In H2 period aswell - Frontier drills online, each one around 800 bopd as short laterals - all at full WTI sales price - one well online = pure $1.3m net profit per month.
Its just a matter of time to get there in order:
CUDA 100% confirmed
Allows RBL
Frontier drill
Well online (as oil is found, tech issues understood)
Oil flows and profit scaling begins
Coplholer,
I do not know what the case is for Wyoming but usually Operators can 'cost recover' approved capex 100% against production revenue and generally related Government tax is not paid until that sum has been fully cost recovered...a bit like amortizing upfront...does that impact your financials ?
Feb- 49789
Mar - 54791
Apr- 50764
May - 49802
There has actually been a growth from Feb production rate to May latest production results of 0.026%.
A difference of just 13 barrels, but a growing trend :)
To me this indicates close management of the field by the very capable SWP team, the stable production range targeted which shows they have it fully under control.
They are fitting well head kit one by one to allow the higher production value once the gas gathering pipelines are built, this reduces production each time for each well but is a managed process - they are not taking multiple wells offline at the same time but over a period, with an eye on revenue maintenance.
Gold/LB
I present evidence - you just made up opinion with no basis - provide links or source for your views as I have please.
The $400k profit is a big safety margin, albeit not anything to shout about, but the field production is stable as evidenced over last few months, oil sector is not easy but they are doing well given the constraints.
"Then we have your gas gathering in a few weeks, which i don’t believe to be true, it’s been pushed back from Sept to 2023. "
Really? - source please - dont you mean the "gas thingy" LB?
"Plan is to flare for the next 6 months, if allowed"
Really? - source please
"And then of course 800bopd per well. That based upon anything other than a desire for likes? "
No - its based on benchmarked production from other horizontal wells in PRB and allowing for the short laterals intent. Such as this:
Longer laterals drill result example from 2019, in Converse County from Frontier, shows the potential in time for COPL:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/samson-resources-ii-llc-announces-strong-initial-production-results-from-two-frontier-formation-wells-in-the-powder-river-basin-wyoming-300954838.html
"Samson Resources II ... announced today that it recently turned to sales two additional operated horizontal Frontier formation wells in Converse County, Wyoming.
"The Bohlander Fed 3974-1720 2FH generated ..... 3,408 barrels of oil equivalent per day "
"The Allemand 21-2017 39-74FH produced.... 3,044 boe/d "
Also
"Given the history of the posters saying that i expect we’ll see 80bopd if lucky."
What you mean my history of providing sourced evidence which decimates your position posts?! This 80 bopd statement just shows you categorically do not understand vertical versus horizontal well performance .
coming around to the knowing that we are making a Profit!!! seems to recognised by the previous doomsayers
GLA LTH Changing their tune now.
Time to starting buying here news coming anytime
Currently 17p to buy, so lots of those red ones are buys around that level.
I can’t help thinking that the next update will be a big one and when both markets are open.