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So do we now need a just under 80 million market cap for people who bought at 40p to see profit?
Is that realistic in the near term or medium term, i.e. this year or early next?
And for the most conservative accepted 1p prediction on relist, we need a 200 million market cap?
Is this something that could be achieved next year?
However.... if this is to be a billion £ company that woukd still be
40p = 80million therefore
10.25 bags = 1 billion = £4.10. This sits comfortably in the middles of previous upper and lower estimates.
Happy to be challenged on the maths but if the stated aim is a billion how else would it be calculated. If there were mire raises then that wiuld clearly impact on eventual share price.
Yes. Read Tedobys projections.
All you need to know is that Institutional Investors having done DD and having invested at a higher price are so convinced of the prospects here that they were fighting to invest more in the recent Placing.
That's all you need to know. They know much more than we do. They certainly know much more than our resident Bashers.
Follow the money and you won't go far wrong
How do we know that the placing wasn't bought by, as hfb called them, 'Wonga Lenders'?
It is all very much news dependent.
A 4 year investment plan in DL’s LGO with 18 nodding donkeys sat in in a jungle clearing each producing 6 bopd & the field production at 100 bopd. The investment was upgrades on the technicals & the 3D mapping, then doubling the number of those donkeys setting a target of 60 bopd each, so a total of 2000 bopd from the field being aimed at by the end of 4 years, then hopefully giving a 3 fold return & so moi pocketing 0.5M. First donkey then came up with 240bopd & that 4 year target was hit in 4 months. Doubled 2 months later.
Similar on 88 when PB with DW went looking for a shale oil reservoir when WTI was at $20.. Reservoir then produced some oil soaked samples from its exploratory well & again the market went into high excitement mode off the back of a good story.
The figures of flows / reservoirs were all very low, but it is the story that sells inclusive of a good combo of reservoir figures in addition to flows, in addition to today’s green qualities, in addition to the ergonomics. I still think we are in with a good chance that Am can put a good story together, from the initial 750bopd net field production to something significantly more sellable. Worth waiting for perhaps even in the deafening silence that is COPL’s settings mode on all things comms.
Because at 20p there is nothing in it for them
Did they not forward sell and get a 500k fee?
Noob, that is my worry.
What I fear following the placing and gas and upgrade delay, and the problems with the federal deep sands, are that we go on as we began with further delays or operational or exploration failures which take this down to 10-15p. Then it languishes, more placings are required to fund drilling as cash is short following operational delays, equipment failure and downtime, and well and exploration failures. These things always seem to happen in oil companies so you need slack, you need to get in at a good price.
Market cap holds up but the sp is now 7 or 8p following the dilution. Cuda is eventually acquired at a highish price requiring another 3 or 4 million raise, the sp is now 5p. Eventually the company turns itself around, the predicted increases take hold, in a year or two the market cap is several hundred million and the sp is around 30-35p.
I'm not saying this is likely. I'm saying we need to see some success now to stave off this narrative.
I think Tandmeister was almost there,
Its not the IQ that is functioning but its the EQ from the R/H lobe creating some peeps rather colourful stock analysis.
Lol, not a good situation to be in.
lokan., assuming that there is some logic capacity upstairs,
Care to put a timescale on how long the $20M war-chest would last for, by inputting last month’s flows v the hedge rates v the netbacks v the WTI…. ?
I didn’t think so either, bud.
Tennyson confirmed that it went to EXISTING HOLDERS WHO DID NOT SELL.
We'd be making about 1.4 million a month roughly at present, is that a fair guess? And the debt repayments from March are significantly more, plus we're drilling and doing workovers, plus there was an equipment upgrade. The WTI is approaching the hedged price at the moment and could go lower.
Ok, I'd guess about a year if production doesn't increase, but then the debt repayments increase because we take on more debt?
That is very reassuring, thankyou shaa.
Hadron got nothing!
Company were explicit in saying none for them.
That is all you need to know. It was funded by existing holders all of whom have " Sticky Fingers"
Stop looking for unknown unknowns. Just follow the sticky money. Stop worrying yourself. Relax. It WILL come good sooner than you think
I have looked at the numbers and I remember that they looked fine at the time, you are right that I don't concentrate on them; I know that the numbers are always something of a work of fiction and always work on paper.
The point I'm making is that I've also seen other companies go round the block developing promising assets and end up successful without rewarding shareholders. You have to factor in problems arising, and they have here right off the bat. With high debt involved, there's less margin for error here.
It's gone from treble your money on relist to maybe get half your money back by Christmas. But if two things happen 1. Dakota well produces and recovers the millions spent and 2. most importantly we get unassailable confirmation of the incline curve then I'll be confident going forward.
I'm just tired of best case scenarios presented as likely, they so seldom are.
'Stop looking for unknown unknowns.'
No, I'm not looking for them. I know that's pointless.
I'm factoring them in.
lokan., don’t put a time scale of Christmas on this, the court papers give an approximation and sadly whilst that is underway, then the news flow is likely to be zilch.
So the opportunity cost is huge here, and what's on offer is, take it on faith, because the business does not intend the stock to perform before next year?
BFU should see further results similar to the 400bopd increase within the first couple of weeks of November although it does not benefit AM to announce that whilst waiting on potential bids.
Hence why I suspect he will slow production. As a logical explanation.
I did not think that was possible, and it sounds like something any investor would be exceptionally gullible to believe.
Surely he has to report the gas injection levels so how would he explain to investors if he decided to reduce them?
Then the share price would inevitably slide, a further placing for cuda would have to involve greater dilution, there would be less money for developing the Federal Deep and so on.
We are coming round to my earlier, admittedly shoddy theory, of how shareholders could ultimately lose out despite the company being successful.
he’s already done that…. ‘4000psi is a very dangerous working environment’.
Lol ‘safety issues’ from 10’ piping? when perhaps upgrading the pressure indicators to read the new highs may have sufficed.
Care to think of any other issues, eg. skilled manpower & driver shortages..
Ok, say he's done it once, can he keep doing that?
It sounds as if he does not intend to reward shareholders at all, unless one buys in early next year.
Said it already, the man’s a shark. A cold calculating shark.
Sp could certainly slide, but Tennyson selling of 30M shares will no doubt have involved selling the lower priced tranches to their own clients, so I’m guessing a 30 to 32p benchmark may be achievable short term, which could be done from BFU results that aren’t necessarily orbital.