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hope you guys are finally starting to realise that a business model that is almost solely dependent on clinical trials simply isn’t going to work.
Things slowly progressing and the outlook is definitely better than a few months ago however cash is king and if Q4 2020 breakeven is still on the cards then another placing will be required and at a much lower price than the last one!
hope you didn’t buy?
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2017/07/20/protect-yourself-from-profit-warnings/
By Algy Hall, Megan Boxall, Mark Robinson, Alex Newman, Julia Faurschou, Emma Powell and Tom Dines
When a profit warning causes a company’s shares to tank, there is always the temptation to view the event as a buying opportunity. That’s especially true for investors already committed to the investment merits of a company, who will in general be more susceptible to view a disappointment as a short-term, one-off setback rather than a more entrenched long-term issue. Behavioural scientists have even coined a term for this “look-on-the-bright-side” trait: confirmation bias.
So when trouble strikes, many old hands turn to the adage “profit warnings come in threes” as a necessary sanity check; best to get out quick, or stay on the side-lines, and wait for the rest of the skeletons to emerge from the cupboard. Most experienced investors will be familiar with the scenario of one warning following another until ultimately a company’s top brass throws in the towel – or has it thrown in for them – and a new broom comes in to deliver one final “kitchen sink” warning (see box) before things finally get back on track.
However, the reality is that while warnings do indeed sometimes come in threes, or other multiples, they can also sometimes be one-offs, and can indeed even prove buying opportunities (see the Bovis chart below). That means it is important for investors to have some ideas about how to distinguish between a profit warning that may prove a stand-alone event and ones that bear the hallmarks of being part of a series.
Is three the magic number?
Defining exactly what constitutes a profit warning can be nuanced, which means there is a dearth of reliable data on this important subject. Fortunately, consultancy EY has done detailed work monitoring warnings since 1999 and has run an analysis for Investors Chronicle to see just how frequently companies that warned on profits in the 12 months to the end of March 2017 did so more than once. Of 207 companies issuing warnings in the period, 30 per cent had made at least one other warning within a year of the one(s) during the period. The full breakdown can be seen in the accompanying pie chart.
While the data does not tally with the strict notion that three is the magic number when it comes to profit warnings, it certainly highlights how risky it can be to view a share price fall caused by a profit warning as a buying opportunity. What’s more, while the market does have a habit of over-reacting to bad news, even when a warning is a one off, there’s no certainty the shares will rebound from any fall (see BT graph below). Furthermore, the less at risk the company in question looks of running into further trouble, the less severe any share price reaction is likely to be. Conversely, when it is highly likely more bad news is to follow, share prices can be obliterated in one fell swoop, as has rec
don’t believe we have seen the end of the drop.
well down 70 % on the year we have had the news share-talk few days late to report, anyway it's a bargain at today price , if i can get a few at 27p would be nice. Let see what happen's in the morning . the 50,000 buy friday might could continue in the morning , will be keeping a eye on L2
well i guess i know stuff you don't, never said directly working with apple, just said using apple watch
new challenge and going contracting..
Looks like I'll be buying more come Monday need to average right down. What's Intresting level 2 shows 3 large buys after 4pm friday totalling £50,000 maybe a leak of new contract. Either way the price is way oversold down nearly 70% on the year
What do you do on a sat night. Troll the boArds when you don't hold a single share. Kinda sad I won't reply to your next message feel sorry for you mate! !! Go out and enjoy yourself instead of leaving messages on lse. Specially when you hold no stock. Stop typing cog on the search box weirdo
You seem to enjoy talking a load of $/££
You really are quite sad and pathetic
And I won't reply but folks beware he is a seriel bull$###
2% sold not that aggressive. There are always some that will try there best to deramp even after its fallen 60%. They were buys for 45k thats confirmed . And buys were on the Friday before close. Offers great value for someone opening a new position
Not a buyer yet been looking at cog this weekend there were 3 large buys around 15k each definitely not a sell checked level 2 and other sources. Any one else had a look
execution Price Currency Volume Trade value* Trade type Trade flags MIC
16:02:28 30-Aug-2019 30.00 GBX 50,000 15,000.00 Off-book LRGS AIMX
16:02:22 30-Aug-2019 30.00 GBX 50,000 15,000.00 Off-book LRGS AIMX
15:56:50 30-Aug-2019 32.00 GBX 50,000 16,000.00 Off-book
Appreciate the insight but as an outsider, i don't see it that way at all. Had another look at the #cog website, last years account and I challenge you to find a clear and obvious message regarding Apple. It may be in there somewhere, but if I need to look for it...it means it is not part of the core strategy. That's where the money is, by partnering with the likes of Apple, not in clinical trial. This company IMHO will not get anywhere by sticking in the clinical trial comfy zone. Waste of time....look at the SP. I sold out in 2017 at 140p....look where it is now. I keep checking in but remain unimpressed. A shame, because expertise in cognitive health is a fantastic USP. Just feel they are not doing much with it.
why did you leave?
Not sure I'd totally agree there cause I did work with them for the last 3yrs up to May of this year
yes, but not the focus for them
they don't just work with pharma clients, see the RNS' from 19th Mar & 19th July for example and real time data collection with apple watch are other areas.
apologies ...Q4/2020 that is
totally agree. I wouldn’t bother until the hit B/E even; which they announced by Q4.
I will also need to be convinced about the strategy of the company. A couple of observations:
1. The pharmaceutical industry has had, and will continue to have M&A’s
2. Clinical development is risky: always is, and always will be.
So Cog, having used those 2 as an excuse for the latest performance, is exposed here and will continue to be unless they diversify
This brings me back to the strategy: surely the money in cognitive health is not in clinical trials but in prevention, diagnosis and management. Where are the big ideas to really go behind that?
Clinical trials are fine, helps them to build fantastic expertise in cognitive health but surely that is not where the big money is. This continues to amaze me about COG. Spot the gorilla!
The loss for the year is expected to be in the region of £2.80 million (2018: £1.44 million loss), largely due to the reduction in revenue and a 30% increase in R&D investment.
so returning into profit in 2020, so await H1 2020 results (aug/sep time) before any take off...
LSE: please don't delete my factual posts again.! or i'll know your corrupt too
paultheotherone - if you don't know why or not prepared to look and find out then you shouldn't be trading shares..
not really
bought into today at 30p surely this is way way oversold now