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Gotta love this but getting a bit ahead of ourselves building in the Calibre share price a year down the line ha ha
It could be tomorrow πππππππ₯πΊ
Assuming Calibre are the eventual buyer. Cash + shares would likely be the most obvious offer. Calibre are mine builders and are looking at re-rating to a higher level. If you examine the Lassonde Curve you can see that given parts of Calibre are in the mine-building phase and therefore the share price top is probably 2-3 times higher than now within 12 months. Assuming this works out a third in cash offering now (say) plus 30p's worth in shares (disregard dilution for a moment) that re-rate would produce a forward value of around a total of 90p (15p + say 75p) in twelve months.
Still going Chinese
Every week that passes means we are a week closer to sale confirmation. I certainly help for everyoneβs sanity we conclude this deal in May. Very quiet from Condor and Calibre who are now sitting on a $300m warchest. Come on lets get that deal announced.
Someone doesn't think so Sakura....
Oops a little premature
Is this going to happen before the summer holidays? I am starting to wonder
After the false excitement of yesterday, we are back to tumbleweed!
I posted this on 1st April 23
"Of course all of us here would like a bidding war. But best not to get carried away - companies will put a valuation on the asset of CNR as a whole - and will not exceed their maximum purchase price - a bidding was though may mean nobody can buy it below their maximum purchase price.
I think a Chinese company may be favourite - Chinese miners seem to go for assets in low cost regions, biggest one operating abroad is Zijin Mining Group, The year 2022 was a big year for Zijin Mining in terms of M&A. The company completed 10 acquisitions within the year, spending a total of RMB 31.9 billion, more than any other company in the industry. They are already operating in South America."
Since then Tibet Acquisition https://www.zijinmining.com/news/news-detail-119845.htm
15% stake in Solaris Canada https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/chinas-zijin-mining-takes-15-stake-canadas-solaris-2024-01-11/
Although this article from 2022 is interesting - Zijin downgrade due to large number of acquisitions on the books. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-24-11-2022
Not be *
Not sure if this has been posted, but might El Salvador not to be a lost cause.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/feb/03/gold-why-the-fight-over-mining-el-salvador-precious-metal-may-not-be-over
I will say its easy to spot the short term flippers vs. The long termers.
Disagree with yours and/or frizzers logic, 45p wouldn't be appropriate in the slightest, indeed for many LTHs that would be a significant loss.
Https://insightcrime.org/news/increasingly-brazen-gaitanistas-attack-colombias-biggest-gold-mine/ I think Zijin is of the Chinese bidders with Ortega getting into bed with the Chinese and pleading with them to invest in his country. Zijin paid an even $1BilU$ for this troubled mine and quickly increased production to become one of Colombia's largest gold mines now have run into this constantly. Far less chance of this happening in Nicaragua with a pit mine and the way the mines there go out of their way to substantially increase the quality of living for the locals. Calibre furnishes clean water systems, housing, schools, medical and a fair wages with benefits for the local communities around their mines. All the new owner has to do is follow Calibre's business model.
Unfortunately it means bugger all here!
37.8p approx Canadian close
Frizzers is about right with his estimate of 45p for a buyout based on the usual metrics especially since CNR management has effectively said they are not mine builders. I fully agree with his assessment that Calibre is the obvious choice, given the proximity of their (under-utilised) La Libertad mill and the possibility of building another hub, sometime in the future, at La India (already approved and mill in storage). This would further increase their capability for expanding their other mines at Limon and future-proof production capacity (reducing the risk of plant shutdowns). Calibre has put together a funding war chest beyond that required to take Valantine into production, which is unusual. Calibre management are mine builders supported by B2Gold (originally invested in La India) and looking to get to 500 koz per annum which would re-rate them as a mid-tier producer... adding Condor's assets would achieve this by 2025/6.
Expect 15p cash + shares in Calibre (currently on a tare price-wise) to approximate 45p overall.
Maybe the updated presentation is updated for the benefit of the shareholders of the soon to be new owner :)
Next update will be news of sale, hopefully.
Agree that there needs to be a proper update at some point. Frisby's article will only drum up interest for so long.
I note there are no upcoming Events on the Condor website so I'm assuming Mark won't need new presentation material in the meantime. It's a puzzle I tell ya.
Maybe I'm being pedantic but just a few observations:
The first slide clearly says May 2023 but it clearly this year with the updated numbers and other references to 2024. Come on, does anyone proof read these presentations?
Secondly, although it is nice to see some updated numbers with the higher gold price, but who is this presentation for? If we are in advanced discussions, shouldn't we be passed this at this stage?
More unanswered questions if you ask me which is really annoying considering where we are at pretty much 18 months down the line. Does it mean we are trying to drum up more interest? Are the 2 companies we are in talks with playing hardball?
Don't get me wrong, it's nice to see our sp rally and I'm not selling any, but has that mostly got to do with all the recent pumping by frisby and swen? Will it slowly drop again as new investors get bored? We need a proper update.
Do you guys n gals know what the late trades may bode for tomorrow? TIA.
I figure JM has a gold price in mind, and a valuation for Condor based on that. Buyers may well say, as they must have done 18 months ago, we're not paying that, and JM will have gone, fine then, just wait and see what happens. And so we have ! lol
He may not be the messiah, and he may not be right about everything (let it go Seingred), but he's called gold pretty well so far and he didn't get rich by being a fool, so I will also wait and see what happens!
I suspect they would have agreed a price of gold on which to do the valuation. Not 3k that's for sure. Maybe 2k, perhaps slightly less.
Then like anything it comes down to drumming up a bidding war between 2 maybe 3 buyers to get a higher valuation. Condor unfortunately say, well if you don't pay what we want, we will start mining ourselves, as it would clearly be a bluff.
You werenβt too far out with your end of day prediction after all Slim! You havenβt got the lottery numbers by any chance have you?
40 by Friday but what Friday very very soon πππ