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Hi Tech,
Your comments “minted” and highly “successful businesses” caught my eye.
Do you have any further details on these businesses as all I can come up with is that The Behnke Group has a turnover of circa $5m and is in the 2-10 employee classification. From my POV, the value in the Ciz Bio tie-up is Bill’s industry knowledge and contacts which would include potential access to $$.
Cheers
VV
I've always said there is risk. We are essentially betting on the test results being good, and that ciz can get it to market, either directly, through licensing, or through buyout.
If there was no risk, this share would already have done its x10.
I think the risk reward here is still fantastic.
But DYOR, as everyone has differnet risk perception,
different assessment of CoS and different ability or preparedness to lose money if things don't work out.
GLA. Back to sleep for me until next RNS...
Hmmm.."suitors lining up"..
We shall see, Capt Brondby!
Over optimism and blinkers have been the defining characteristics of this forum to date.
No I think you'll find they do.
Why else is Behnke so keen to sign up to this before the trial results are known?
Because he knows that once the results are known, there will be a stream of pharma suitors queuing up, for this. He wants in early.
Jace..hope you're still reading. It's good to be hear other views.
When you said that the block sells were "political' and I responded that was "ludicrous" , you took that (in a rather immature way imo) as a personal attack
What turns out in reality is that my misgivings were true and was something fishy (probs forward sells or those in the know pre selling). It's ok to disagree, that's how we learn.
Brondby: i have much respect for you and like you on here..BUT it's naive in the extreme to think "Ciz has all the cards"..
The power is with Bill Behnke's group. They are already minted, with highly successful businesses. Ciz is aspirational and has nothing at all without funding. It has no pathway into the US without them. The cards are undoubtedly with them.
Autocorrect keeps on pulling my pants down...
Replace of for if.
And on the message previous is for it.
And with that context then pay Allenby nothing of their clients have led to this.
Whilst the company effectively owes PIs nothing is does have an obligation to ensure that all parties, unless restricted, have access to an even market.
If I was the company, I'd be asking questions of the placees with Allenby. Allenby should be able to account for holdings past and present in this sense.
The trading activity in the run up to the news screams that parties knew and sold expecting to make a quick 25-30% whilst retaining holdings.
For this alone, we should have stuck with E3 instead of dropping the ball and momentum.
If there had been good financial advice and PR advice, this wouldn't have happened. Most of us was expecting E3 to be called up anyhow.
Jace, cheers. I personally think CIZ and Allenby Capital have underestimated how many shares were in long term PI holders who believed the information given to them in previous RNS releases, especially the 10th of August 2023 RNS, and the negative reaction leading to the current share price.
I hope this comes good for all PI’s here, yourself, Tech, Brondby and Green.
As a PI you are treated and thought of as a Parasite be under no illusion of that. Until, if, against the odds, you get to be a PI HNWI, then you’re an ATM, but treated to far better information.
I've asked the company about this too OAPK.
As I've pointed out before, we remain in the dark on what was contained in this placing agreement.
It doesn't create a balanced market. It should effectively mean that all placees are also inside because of this advantage. So for those that traded their positions before this placing, have they also broken the rules?
Why hasn’t there been a Result of Placing RNS ? Today is the 12th of April. If there is nothing on Monday 15th April will there be an explanation ? Is it going ahead Allenby Capital ?
Hope so for the PI’s here.
“The Company and Allenby Capital have entered into a placing agreement pursuant to which Allenby Capital has, subject to certain conditions, procured subscribers for the Placing Shares at the Issue Price (the "Placing Agreement"). The Placing Agreement contains provisions entitling Allenby Capital to terminate the Placing (and the arrangements associated with it), at any time prior to Admission (as defined below) in certain circumstances, including in the event of a material breach of the warranties given in the Placing Agreement, the failure of the Company to comply with its obligations under the Placing Agreement, or the occurrence of a force majeure event or a material adverse change affecting the financial position or business or prospects of the Company. If this right is exercised, the Placing will not proceed and any monies that have been received in respect of the Placing will be returned to the applicants without interest and Admission will not occur. The Company has agreed to pay Allenby Capital a placing commission and all other costs and expenses of, or in connection with, the Placing.
The Placing is not being underwritten by Allenby Capital or any other person.”
Hi TechT,
I've been quiet lately as didn't seem much point in posting now we have a sequence of events set out. I've rather parked this one to a weekly check until things start moving again or we get an update.
"hope it doesn't mean that Ciz's position isn't battered down more - since Ciz appears to have little leverage in this"
I don't think the position has been battered down at all.
A 15% royalty exchanged for a 10% royalty plus a 10% equity stake in Bio Inc, upfront payments, all US dev funded, and retaining rights to rest of world. I much prefer that arrangement! A nice tasty nasdaq listing down the line, and a slice of a co that will be valued in multiples of revenue.
Secondly. Ciz hold ALL the cards. Its our reagents, our test, our IP, and we've just raised funds and have shares in CDT so are not short of cash. If ciz bio dont want it, someone else will.
Of course, as it always has done, success will depend on the accuracy. But both parties appear to be proceeding on the assumption it will be good, and i dont think you get to that position through hope alone.
Definitely has been a dent in confidence from the raise RNS (I suspect Allan was shocked, but the impact on the sp has, I hope, taught him a lesson. Its probably the first "bad" news he's had to deliver, and wasn't really bad at all, just unexpected! To raise in a way that way, not with E3, and at marginally lower rate, came totally out of the blue. Markets being the way they are right now, don't like shocks like that. And the expectation created that triials were already underway. I suspect the rIse was to ensure a strong negotiating position, and some existing holders wanted to maintain their holding (a sign of confidence IMO).
On the plus side, I have moved my general trading account holding into my ISA and now have a lower average than ever. If it drops further I'll be buying even more.
One of the phrases that I feel may have been overlooked in that last RNS is that, although we have the MOU, there is now a period of further negotiations.
This may be bog standard stuff, but I hope it doesn't mean that Ciz's position isn't battered down more - since Ciz appears to have little leverage in this.
Hi Green, hope you're well.
Just wondered how you felt about it all now, still as optimistic?
Something definitely changed with those RNS'; maybe just a subjective feeling, but I think there was also a palpable loss of some trust/ not truly knowing what's going on.
That was the moment of realization for me , the epiphany - that no one on this forum actually does know any more than anyone else!
In fact, through a few phone calls and looking at those block sells, I started feeling that there wasn't something right.
I didn't act on it and I'm as guilty as confirmation bias as anyone else.
Now the dust has settled , how does everyone feel?
Are we just as optimistic with longer time scales, more mistrustful of the BOD, concerned or soothed by the High Value investors?
Are we now going to get regular news feeds..
Will there be someone expected shocks to the positive? (Other cancers)
Will it take even longer than expected and more money?
Will Ciz ever really get high value revenues , and when?
Loads of questions, that I was quite easy with before those RNS'. Now I'm not quite so sure. Got about a quarter left in now. Too much risk for the amount I had in, with the misinformation from BOD.
My feeling is that I'm still fairly optimistic but there could be any old shock around the corner after what's happened.
A heady £450 traded yesterday…
I assume this will stay flat for 2-3 weeks yet - would think the $100k deposited end of the month should be announced around annual results time (assuming it’s late April/early May) and hopefully will be coupled with a clear forward looking statement around mAb scaling up etc… AS did mention there would be an announcement re mAbs partners “fairly soon”.
You would think it’s the 3-4 month period after that when clinical test results are complete, and the MOU is converted to a contract agreement that we’ll see significant positive momentum return. Hopefully see some wider updates re patents, LFT, other tests etc… in the interim…
I would assume, at some point they’ll state they’re going to use Ella for the 96 well ELISA test, so ongoing progress with Bio-Techne, given they say they are still working with them.
https://www.bio-techne.com/instruments/simple-plex/cost-advantages
Re the US, given what is needed there, it’s going to cost many millions, and while there seems to be confidence HNWI are lined up, can’t envisage us getting any real detail on that given it’s a private entity and Cizzle are just the licence provider. Would be useful to know the credentials of those who will deliver on this in market (you would expect them to be already in discussions given how long Bill B has been working on this).
I still can’t fully square the circle on the placing - stating they had previously budgeted to do it themselves in the US, and hence needed funds, doesn’t align with the time lead for a placing and when Cizzle Bio Inc was set up - only thing I can think of is:
1. that it was leverage while terms of that agreement was being finalised, and more likely
2. You need working capital while that deal is being negotiated over the coming months to maintain momentum, as could be another 3-4 months before funds land.
Common for the spread to be like this down here...
It's actually closer to 1.74-1.86
I second that got isa money burning a hole in my pocket....
Waiting patiently...for the spread to reduce.
Got my average below too. This could be a great opp, and easy to get a better price than most currently
Agree. Averaged my holding down a little at below placing prices.
Good price for the first purchase of the new ISA year.
“ just game playing”
No games Green.
You can say the same about accounts that only post on one board.
Never been more sure of an investment. They wouldn't be setting everything up if they didn't think they'd get somewhere.
CIZ and LLAI complimentary investments not competi g ones.
LLAI extremely illiquid
LungLife are aiming to use AI post CT scan.
1) Diagnostic test (eg Cizzle)
2) If likely lung cancer, CT scan - clinical pathway
3) Use of prognostic tools to determine best route forward, where LungLife AI play…
Would still be nice to get the test out this year though!