Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
What a very conservative attitude to risk TT. With that attitude, theyd be better off in a deposit account.
If BIO doesnt come through, ciz will knock on other doors, BioTechne and others (possibly already are) Ultimately the IP is theirs. They don't need cash short term (probably why they raised) and can look elsewhere if needed.
BIOs benefit to acting now, early, is they get in more cheaply than they would once accuracy/specificity are proven at scale. I suspect ciz already knows rough outcome of this already from their own work on Jess platform. And i suspect Behnke does too, hence why going to the bother of setting up BIO.
So ciz is simultaneously
1 a lifestyle company scam that is ripping us all off
2 a hugely valuable company that some Americans plan to steal from us, also ripping us all off
Meanwhile neilin62 is apparently an insider again, despite only yesterday saying he wasn't - " I have repeatedly told you i am not an insider, so please don't make untrue statements when you do not know it as fact.", but Fastfood decides to repeat it anyway.
This board has taken a turn for the worse lately.
A reminder to all that if you have no faith in the company, its product or its future, nobody is forcing you to be here. Sell up and FTFO.
How many times does this get regurgitated?
Its a personalised mRNA cancer vaccine.
For folk with cancer, to prevent it returning after treatment.
I wonder how the tell who has cancer?
I wonder how the tell if the cancer is still there?
So GreenD100,
We're currently trading to at a 16% discount to this placing. I picked up £500 at 1.6499 this am. Some folks have got a bargain at scale too.
And of course oapkk20 was spreading FUD (noted for future), and some poor sods have been frightened out of their holdings this am.
Well TechT, you are the one repeatedly saying
"15% revenue has slipped to 10%" and ignoring the 10% equity stake in Ciz Bio, the funding of the US development and guaranteed min payments, all of which are very big deals for a company like ciz.
Who is the one ignoring "information before your eyes"?
Of course its not a done deal. But odd that you continually ignore that part of the proposal.
I've always said there is risk. We are essentially betting on the test results being good, and that ciz can get it to market, either directly, through licensing, or through buyout.
If there was no risk, this share would already have done its x10.
I think the risk reward here is still fantastic.
But DYOR, as everyone has differnet risk perception,
different assessment of CoS and different ability or preparedness to lose money if things don't work out.
GLA. Back to sleep for me until next RNS...
No I think you'll find they do.
Why else is Behnke so keen to sign up to this before the trial results are known?
Because he knows that once the results are known, there will be a stream of pharma suitors queuing up, for this. He wants in early.
Hi TechT,
I've been quiet lately as didn't seem much point in posting now we have a sequence of events set out. I've rather parked this one to a weekly check until things start moving again or we get an update.
"hope it doesn't mean that Ciz's position isn't battered down more - since Ciz appears to have little leverage in this"
I don't think the position has been battered down at all.
A 15% royalty exchanged for a 10% royalty plus a 10% equity stake in Bio Inc, upfront payments, all US dev funded, and retaining rights to rest of world. I much prefer that arrangement! A nice tasty nasdaq listing down the line, and a slice of a co that will be valued in multiples of revenue.
Secondly. Ciz hold ALL the cards. Its our reagents, our test, our IP, and we've just raised funds and have shares in CDT so are not short of cash. If ciz bio dont want it, someone else will.
Of course, as it always has done, success will depend on the accuracy. But both parties appear to be proceeding on the assumption it will be good, and i dont think you get to that position through hope alone.
Definitely has been a dent in confidence from the raise RNS (I suspect Allan was shocked, but the impact on the sp has, I hope, taught him a lesson. Its probably the first "bad" news he's had to deliver, and wasn't really bad at all, just unexpected! To raise in a way that way, not with E3, and at marginally lower rate, came totally out of the blue. Markets being the way they are right now, don't like shocks like that. And the expectation created that triials were already underway. I suspect the rIse was to ensure a strong negotiating position, and some existing holders wanted to maintain their holding (a sign of confidence IMO).
On the plus side, I have moved my general trading account holding into my ISA and now have a lower average than ever. If it drops further I'll be buying even more.
So I've been out all day from early so have missed all the action. Just been reading up now, and some initial thoughts...
- lower royalities than previously suggested, but perhaps greater certainty of revenue stream and lower risk for ciz
- retain benefis of any improvements to the test for elsewhere in the world. Definitely a plus.
- BioTechne buyout now seems unlikely short-term, but...
- US high net worth individuals will be keen for either a buyout of BIO, or Nasdaq listing down the line. Ciz has 10% of that prospect.
- the $100k up front suggests to me they already know the test results are good, or they suspect its good and we will know within 120 days. Benkhe won't bust his reputation with those folk selling them a pup.
- sets ciz up well for Europe, once the test is moving in the US. Rinse and repeat.
Questions
- does this relate to the LDT only, or also any point of care test?
Market didn't seem to like it much. Probably a combination of folk who were in for a quick buyout exiting, and the fact there is still no.
accuracy, specificity, etc.
All in all, good. If it remains sub 2p for long enough to make nexts years ISA year, I'll be adding.
"simply a file recycle and someone too lazy to change the file name. Nothing more."
I'd rate oapk20s suggest much more likely than this hogbog. Harder to recycle a filename than start afresh. And a recycle of what exactly?
Well if we're going for tenuous links oapk20, try googling "lung cancer london" and go to maps.
Notice anything?
Like i say, my bet is a codename for the placing, but it may have been chosen due to links to lung cancer, or there could be other reasons. We shouldn't have to be guessing stuff like this.
Neil, do you mean there is mention of Marlyebone in the para under General (as I can't see any).
Or do you mean this set of text has never appeared in a ciz RNS previously? I think that is likely added by Allenby Capital, as similar text appears on this recent placing Allenby did for East Imperial plc.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/EISB/proposed-placing-to-raise-approximately-ps325-000/16302105
The download file from the cizzle webside is called Project_Marylebone_Placing_Announcement_FINAL
IMO, most likely a codename for talking about the placing itself, but neilin is noting that its the first to include anything that is not just a straight description of the announcement. So could in theory also relate to a funding to support some project called Marylebone.
Absolutely FastFood. If Widglide thinks this is the competition, then he's barking up the wrong tree.
Years away, currently.more about post cancer reoccurrence prevention, prohibitively expensive in the medium term for widespread roll out. Maybe in 15 years.
Lol, zmoderna and Merck
"
Still, Hoge said that even with the new data it would be some time before the companies can file for approval of the treatment.
The vaccine is custom-built based on an analysis of a patient's tumors after surgical removal. The vaccines are designed to train the immune system to recognize and attack specific mutations in cancer cells."
I think the problem is that the RNSs can be interpreted multiple way.
Ciz never said they were starting clinical trials. They said they had passed key milestones to begin trials, and thay they had commenced trials design.
As I've said before, the final trials need to use exactly the same kit, processes and reagents that will be used in production. So that means they do need to start production of reagenets at scale. Thats my understanding. Others interpret differently.
And that is the problem. The RNSs tend to be vague and lacking full explanation. Thats what needs to change.
I dont want messagees between the company and individuals and shareholder reps and secret Telegram groups. I want RNSs that are clear and explantitiv and follow up interviews that are more than just a replay of the RNS.
The last RNS could be fantastic news (scaling up for production in weeks, extension of reagents to other cancers) or it could be disappointing news (we've had to rework all our reagents as they werent behaving as expected).
Trouble is we dont know which it is and the sp has dropped on this uncertaintly.