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any informed speculation?
and mine !!...
Blue. How do you get to this
"We could register NO sales for the rest of the year and 2m+ in sales could support a share price 2-3x where we are now. "
Obviously, we will have further sales but how do you calculate £2m total revenue this year will support a share price today of 80p? can you show me how you compute this.
Simple: when the market can credibly see another 10m coming in the near future and then also being able to understand better how the outlet growth will progress, both through more granular information from the company. Then, armed with this increasing understanding of this massive growth evolution, Mr Market can then run those numbers through its Leading-Product-Innovator-in-Exciting-New-Consumer-Product-Growth-Sector module, using rolling, projected growth of revenues AND profits, where it is able to look at the latter because of the new company's industry-beating gross margins (again: look at TAAT! That company won't be profitable anytime in the near-to-middle future because of massive overhead and admin costs and thus lower gross margins, yet it maintains a massive market cap. Chill meanwhile has stated recently that even at current store growth, 'margins have been maintained' at levels we reckon are well north of 50%). Let's just say that Mr Market does not put 10x multiples on such companies.....I started explaining all this to you this months ago in a different format, while you were trying to tell me that a 10x PE was some kind of 'reasonable' multiple to use to try and value a company like Chill and I was, for the first time, trying to patiently explain to you that that was patently idiotic. I have no such patience anymore so please refer to my comments here on how you simply do not understand this company, how its business is developing nor ESPECIALLY how the equity market works. Now I don't know if that is intentional or not, but I no longer care. Read a book.
Bluerill,
Fully agree that when Mr Market sees another 10m revenue then the current negativity will be replace by positivity..
I do need to pull you up on your margins "well north of 50%" comments. May I respectfully ask where you are getting this info from?
My understanding is that the original 50% comment has been replaced by 30%.
Also, the six moths to 31st March showed zero margin (in fact a trading loss, but admittedly very limited store sales as mainly online sales). It will be interesting what margin is proved in the six months to 30th September, as this will reflect much higher store v online sales).
Good to debate this with you...
BB2.
That's unfortunate bc I'm not debating anything. Gross margins are not 30%. Regardless, LOOK AT TAAT!!!!! I won't say it again. That company's valuation has a degree of long-term views on everything from the product category's massive potential to a clear forgiveness of what will be TAAT's continued loss-making into the near-to-medium term that, with even a fraction of such ambition accruing to CHLL's valuation, would set the sp on a massive upside move. JUST ON NUMBERS ALREADY RELEASED. PERIOD. Finally, Mar 2021 year-end are M.E.A.N.I.N.G.L.E.S.S for absolutely any analysis of any consequence, except overhead burn rates as I detailed in a previous post which was taken down. Please don't embarrass either of us again by trying to use them for something as serious as the company's gross margins.
Bluerill,
This is taken from the Co website.
"Gross margins for the period were approximately 30%"
Can I ask where is the info that you are referring to the states "well north of 50%" ???
BB2
Billy 'This is taken from the Co website.
"Gross margins for the period were approximately 30%"
Could you add a link please to the relevant info?
Hi Pecten,
https://zoeticinternational.com/investor-relations/investment-case/
last sentence right at the bottom of Investment Case... A commitment to Shareholder Returns.
I cannot personally find ANY reference to "well north of 50%" not even "50%". If others can post a link that confirms these figures then it would be much appreciated.
BB2
BB2.
Thanks - it is imperative imo to see the context of figures when quoted
Pecten,
I agree. I also understand that this was in reference to period to 30th Sept 20.
I have ignored the lack of margin for the period to 31st March and would rather wait and see the reported margin for period to 30th Sept 21. That figure will be more relevant.
BB2.
Hi Billy,
From the bushiness update for ZOE on 29th July stated
"The Group has now received orders for Chill products totalling more than US$2.0 million. This follows previous announcements issued on 17 May 2021 and 1 July 2021 of combined sales totalling US$1.34 million and US$0.72 million respectively. Margins, as previously announced, have been maintained across all product lines and the Board expects these to grow in-line with manufacturing volumes."
So 30% is a safe assumption to make at this time.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZOE/business-update-7iziiodr6ej9lh3.html
And moving back towards the 50% margins previously communicated is also likely....
"The Board expects these to grow in-line with manufacturing volumes."
Again - Try to start valuing the company on where it is going, not where it has been....
Hopeful. "And moving back towards the 50% margins previously communicated is also likely...."
Where was it previously communicated that they were achieving 50% margins....?
From the 28th Jan RNS "Gross margins for the Period were approximately 30%. Embedded in these margins were start-up costs and promotions associated with the launch of the Chill and Zoetic online stores. Management anticipates the gross margins will trend towards the previously announced levels of approximately 50%."
Keep looking back Vas & BB2 if you want. I prefer to look forward.
From the 15th Feb RNS "Eric Schrader, formerly of Shrader Oil, commented: "With four generations of experience in the convenience store sector, we have seldom had a brand that, with no in store promotional spend, outsells famous brands with million-dollar marketing budgets. This kind of performance is why so many retail groups are keen to carry the Chill brand, and it's easy to come to the conclusion that we have something special here.""
Again Vas you are stating when did they achieve 50% and making something of that…..
The point is simply:
They achieved 30% GP and “the board expects these to grow with in-line with manufacturing volumes”
Now all you want to do is highlight the past, and what is done now….
The company has distribution deals for 10,000 initial stores.
It is therefore inevitable that manufacturing volumes would increase to support that, economies of scale will be introduced as they achieve that, and therefore as the BOD expect to get to 10,000 initial stores, they would also expect those margins to be bigger accordingly……
Look forward not to the past.
50%+ was communicated. It was communicated in investor presentations given in the past, I’m sure it’s been mentioned in interviews in the past before also.
I’m not going to listen to them all again and then pinpoint precisely which one it was in, and the time it’s at because:
A) GP’s were ~30%
B) They expect them to increase with increases in production.
C) In 3,000-4,000,5,000 -> 10,000 initial stores there will be that increased production…
D) GP’s will trend higher with those economies of scale.
It’s not difficult to grasp (but doesn’t suit your agenda to acknowledge)
Moving with the theme of the conversation, they made fu ck all in 2001 I believe!
They look at the past because they know it's not so good when looking to the future with the distribution deals already signed, the markets to move into, etc. The "future" shows the potential of what the sp could be but it doesn't suit certain posters agendas as ever.
Makes me wonder if they chose last week lottery numbers for this weeks ticket? And before you spout off, yes I know about probability, etc.
Let's face facts here Matt....
the chuckle twins, and their clickbait sheep, hate abs ANYONE who speaks a positive word here...it goes against the grain of their agendas.
So to s l a g off this Co constantly 24/7 that is ok....
To be positive we are rampers.
When actual hard facts are put fwd, they automatically change tac, and try to twist to fit in with their blatant agendas.
As long as any helpful posting gets buried in 10 page essays they are fine...but they are the same trolls who moan because nobody brings " anything of any useful substance here".....WONDER WHY ???!!!
Lots of upbeat news over on TG....any guessing as to why the trolls got themselves hoofed outa there .....
The Crew.™
I've been away all morning, so thankyou HD, CM and KD for providing the backup to my 50% margin assumption. I think everyone benefits from seeing how successive RNSs guided back to the level as well as illustrating just how invidious the inbred trolling of some posters can be.
Blue you said . "Chill meanwhile has stated recently that even at current store growth, 'margins have been maintained' at levels we reckon are well north of 50%).". Stated where? Where did they say well north of 50% ?
Hi,
Just for clarity.
You did not state "my 50% margin assumption".
You actually stated " 'margins have been maintained' at levels we reckon are well north of 50%)"
Bearing in mind that since the 50% statement in the RNS dated 28th January, margins have apparently subsequently reduced to 0% (as per the results RNS dated 31st August), I would personally be happy to see margins firstly restored to 30%. If economies of scale eventually lead to a 50% margin in the medium term, then that would be great for shareholders. However, this will (in my opinion) be difficult to achieve whilst still needed to give 30% discounts etc (as is currently the case) while trying to build the brand in the short term.
I am still struggling to see stated margins "well north of 50%" as you originally stated....
BB2
Fred, can't believe you've trademarked The Crew!
With all the green on here I have unfiltered to read and will keep unfiltered and try to engage once the obvious deramping ends but guys can you try and be at least a bit objective -
Billy, you pointed out about the 30% margins in your post at 9.18 but then have to add an irrelevant point about 6 months to March showed zero margin (in fact a trading loss) - Everyone knows that the previous years trading have no bearing on the future of this company but you can't help adding it to deramp! No other explanation. And to compound matters you mention it again by saying you are ignoring the lack of margin. Stating it isn't ignoring it! Again a classic deramp! These are why only a few people actually engage with you on here. Query the future not the past. The profits aren't going to be made in March 2021, but some in March 2022, more in 2023 and so on.
Vascular - you've rightly pointed out that another share has been smashed despite a decent rns and it's the way of the market at the moment. A share that you have invested "big" in. And good luck to you on that, it is very disheartening seeing a strong rns followed by an sp drop. Yet in the last 30 days 12 positive commments on OO, 10 positive comments on SEE BUT 100 negative comments on here, a share where you have very little invested according to your comments. 100 very long deramping comments, bringing up old data, looking at the now or the past when again surely it's the future when the money could be made here. Once the store count is in the 5000 to 10,000 range. once the UK's FSA finally get their act together and we can see Zoetic creams on store shelves. Pre March 2021 is not important.
Like I said try and be objective, same goes to everyone and hopefully this BB will become a place of info and analysis not ramping and especially reramping.
Billy, where is it stated or how do you come to the conclusion that margins are now 0%?
Hi Matt,
From the Results to 31st March 2021 RNS dated 31st Aug 2021.
Revenue £320,870
Cost of sales £361,517
Gross loss £40,642
Hence, Profit margin 0%. Loss margin (is there such a thing ?) 12.67%.
The Interim Results RNS for period to 30th Sept 2020 dated 28th Jan 2021 stated;
Revenue £54,554
Cost of Sales £37,976
Gross profit £16,578.
Hence, profit margin 30.39% (which is the 30% figure stated within the comments section of that RNS).
By deduction, the six month period from 1st October to 31st March saw revenue of £266,316 and cost of sales of £323,541. So a six month loss of £57,225. Profit margin 0%. Loss margin 21.49%.
To clarify, I understand that these are historic figures to 31st March 2021. I also understand that stated revenue since 1st April to date is approx $2m (some feel that there is more revenue not yet disclosed during this period). However, in my opinion, I feel it is very difficult to suggest profit margins "have been maintained" at "well north of 50%".
BB2.
Freddy Boy "Lots of upbeat news over on TG....any guessing as to why the trolls got themselves hoofed outa there ....."
Hmm let me think, could it be because the rampers bubble don't like to hear the truth, maybe all the clever one's chucked out can form their own Telegram group (rampers not welcome) so potential new investors can hear both sides of the argument.