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Hi Lynn,
Thank you for asking that Tibbles character to pipe down with the politics. I had to filter him in the end. This is a CEY board not a forum for political blow-hards like him to bore everyone with his narrow views.
Mr Dribbles woo! Sorry of course you know it all being a union man and talking to the man on the train. The rest of us poor mortals know nothing.Why don't you Just keep repeating the same old gibberish and crying you want the E U see how that works for you. Good luck Lynn
Nigel Farage tweeted today "US inflation figures today tell a story. Governments will inflate their way out of Covid debts, you have been warned!"
It looks like gold and silver prices are going to start moving sharply higher very soon?
Yes,agree.But as we know "the news follows the stock market,the stock market doesn't follow the news".If gold had soared today they would have cited todays news as a reason for it.How will they explain the fall today ?.They will probably put it down to "profit taking after the recent rise".
When you find out what is common to the rises and the falls,then you have cracked it.
So the present government listens to you does it, I think not.
The present government is only in power because the present first past the post electoral system and the way the ward boundaries are arranged is advantageous to the Tory party and denies the smaller parties of taking any seats, hardly democratic
I'm still waiting to learn of the great advantages the people of the UK have gained since leaving the EU.
What happened to the £325 million a day we were going to save, Oh sorry I forgot Boris & Farage lied, although now Farage denies ever making the claim.
So Lynny what have you got to tell us about gold then?
Have you ever takenthe trouble to write to Centamin about anything , probably not..
What have you ever contributed to this forum by way of debate or discussion, nothing apart from the same old boring or spiteful prattle that is on most of the other forums.
Perhaps you should take the trouble to read what some of the other forum members post, it's not solely or directly about gold or Centamin, but never the less very interesting and possibly related in other ways.
Why not join in, you might enjoy it, or possibly even learn something,
Only the big nuggets left!
No surprise really, most of those that have sighed aren't in the same class as those that are still negotiating final terms.
Of all the licenses awarded the key ones are those who have the resources and capabilities to actually build new mines, and Centamin, Barrick and B2Gold are precisely those!
Planets aligned
It does not operate the way you may think in the gold market but what is really reliable is when long contracts have vastly out numbered short positions in the paper market. On top of that physical is not being bought so much in May for a host of reasons such as the India market awaits monsoon as well as getting on the pandemic down curve, USA market is redesigning their coins and they come out as new editions in the summer. It may take a month for the market to behave more like you would expect in the current circumstances, its that demand in paper contracts (already fulfilled) and physical market that is not aligned. Tony
Mr Tibbles You say Labour will oppose changes well that will reasure people. Labour tee hee Labour wouldn't know Labour if it walked up and smacked them in the face your problem is you can't see there is no credible opposition you can't see it can you. Open your eyes stop lecturing what's the point lecturing on here. Go out there you are so biased you can't see singing the praises last week of Charles Dr Gaulle someone who sat in London while his country tried to fight. This week singing the praises of Claude Junker what's it all about going on and on with yourself. As for Labour when people vote do you just disregard anything you don't like you actually should be standing for Labour you are the perfect Labour politician. Just ignore the voters and the tax paying British public. Just carry on trying to get the remain vote through that should work especially if you only lecture on a site that's dedicated to a gold mine. Have you nothing better to do. You haven't lectured very much today must try harder. Good luck Lynn
The corollary of this is that “value” stocks, which are either less reliant on low interest rates or positively benefit from rising ones (such as banks), are more resilient. Hence the “great rotation” continuing. For example, the FTSE 100 managed to end the day yesterday a little higher, despite the tendency of US stocks to set the tone for a day’s trading.
So what’s next? Well, three things can happen...
Read the whole of this article on the MoneyWeek website
Until tomorrow,
John Stepek
Executive editor, MoneyWeek
The last time US inflation was this high, you were a lot younger
Last month, the US “core” consumer price index rose at an annual rate of 3%. That was a lot higher than expected. Meanwhile, headline prices (which include volatile things not in the “core” reading, like fuel and food) rose by 4.2%.
All in, it was a big increase. And yes, you can pick at the argument. You can point out (rightly) that there are serious “base” effects here (in other words, prices collapse in April 2020 during the pandemic, so you’d expect them to bounce).
You can also point out (rightly), that almost all of the surge in prices was driven by “reopening” plays. As Michael Pearce of Capital Economics notes, the price of plane tickets jumped, the price of hotel rooms soared, and the price of car rental jumped by more than 16%.
That sort of price rise is a genuine one-off and it’s exactly what you’d expect. When you can’t fly anywhere, a plane ticket is worthless. When you’re suddenly allowed to go on holiday after being stuck in one place for over a year, a plane ticket is, if not quite priceless, as close as it’s going to get.
So it’s easy to see why this surge in demand meeting sectors that have been shut down for 12 months or so has pushed prices up so aggressively.
Still. All the analysts and experts already knew this stuff when they were making their forecasts. So either these one-off surges were just a lot more powerful than their models had suggested – or we’re on the verge of something a little more durable than just one-off rebounds.
There are certainly signs – as I pointed out earlier in the week – that US employees are demanding and getting higher wages, even while many people remain out of work. More importantly, they have the popular and political support to do so.
And it’s not just about inflationary forces. A deeper point, made by Louis Gave of research group Gavekal, is that many of the most powerful disinflationary forces – primarily, though not exclusively, the globalisation of trade and the massive expansion of the global workforce – of the 30 to 40 years or so, are behind us now.
In other words, there are plenty of inflationary forces and no obvious disinflationary ones to offset them.
Why tech stocks in particular don’t like rising inflation
We can argue about this all day and I suspect we’ll be doing so for some time. But what’s clear is that stockmarkets took the news badly. That’s because they’re worried that higher inflation will force the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, to raise interest rates earlier than expected. And the worst-hit were the tech stocks, with the Nasdaq index falling hardest on the day.
This makes sense. The problem for tech stocks is that rising inflation is a losing environment for them either way. Even if the Fed doesn’t raise rates to combat inflation, the longer-term value of money still falls (because inflation reduces the value of tomorrow’s money).
Inflation in the US smashes expectations (equals widening negative real rates)
Israel fighting Hamas potentially leading to a ground war
Tesla no longer accepting Bitcoin for its vehicles
All bode well for gold, and yet we are down. Go figure
Hi Hedgehogg,
Anyone that is in Bitcoin must be very brave or foolish, anyone that is in gold is very wise and fortunate as things are panning out!
Coming back to Centamin its about 109p holding on a rising support line. Do not be surprised if we hit it tomorrow or early next week. Gold was overbought and its a shakeout until its oversold or just not overbought. This could take days or weeks.
On the verge of some big market moves. Bitcoin finally tanking on the way to its real value. Inflation looming, though people are trying to say interest rates will go up. Show me a government can afford to raise interest rates. Gold always been good for inflation, it’s the reason we are all here, because we don’t trust their devious ways. Big market swings like 2020. Let’s hope gold performs again like last year.
Well done Cowichan!
Thank you for all your hard work and taking the trouble to write on behalf of all share holders.
It suggests CEY haven't signed yet but hopefully not far away.
It would require quite fundamental changes to the UK food supply chain and a huge reduction in product choice to move to a self-sustained system!
Longtime investor and board reader checking in as I just came across this link:
Egypt signs new gold exploration contract worth $5.2m
Daily News Egypt
... four Egyptian companies, the most prominent of which are: Centamin; Medaf; Park Gold; Al-Abadi; Red Sea Resources; Nubian Mines; North Africa; ... https://dailynewsegypt.com/2021/05/13/egypt-signs-new-gold-exploration-contract-worth-5-2m/
We need to import over 400,000 tonnes of fresh tomatoes every year to meet demand. “The retail value of British tomato production... is around £190 million out of a total retail market value of £740 million,” the organisation explains. So we’d need a hell of a lot more polytunnels to get anywhere near self-sufficiency. Our pasta sauces and our salads would suffer for quite some time, never mind the investment required.
Sheffield University’s professor Duncan Cameron is the co-director of the Institute for Sustainable Food. He says we should be thinking about the sort of food system we want rather than how that system is acquired.
“Personally, and academically, I think the issue of self-sufficiency is a classic case of the wrong question.
“We talk of an air of Little England, and quasi-nationalism in relation to food. That might be present. But with sustainability and food security, we need to think about what sort of diet we want.
“When we talk about buying British, it’s difficult to know what that actually means. We generally do with lamb, but we all still want to drink coffee and eat mangoes. It’s hard to see how far it can go.
“Certainly there is a logical case to be made for a more local and seasonal food system. That’s usually the more sustainable option, but it isn’t always, even when taking food miles into account.
“Tomatoes are grown under the sun in Spain – they’re more sustainable than tomatoes grown here in a polytunnel. It’s not always that local is best.
“Another overlooked point is where does the labour come from? Say we did all buy British exclusively, who would grow and pick the fruit and vegetables? Around 30% of food manufacturing is filled by EU workers. It’s more in the summer.
“We need these skills and we have a heavy reliance on EU workers. Our food industry wouldn’t exist without a migrant workforce.”
It ought to be supposed that there might be a degree of short-sightedness in this sudden, overarching premise of buying British, not only as a regenerative motion but as a political standpoint!
It works in some aspects but falls well short in others. And as it pushes on, the tide of Union Flags waving triumphantly atop joints of roast pork and summer strawberries, let us spare a thought for bananas, and olive oil, for supermarkets would be all the more boring without them.
Dominic Goudie, the head of international trade at the Food and Drink Federation, is a force of balance if I am not: “UK manufacturers are committed customers of UK farming, and also depend on imports of ingredients that aren’t produced domestically or not in sufficient quantity.
These imports complement our use of UK-produced inputs and are key to delivering the world-leading choice, quality, and value for money enjoyed by UK shoppers.
“Ultimately, the UK’s food and drink manufacturing sector is driven by consumer demand and over time consumers have come to expect foods and ingredients from across the globe.
It would require quite fundame
We’re witnessing the toxification of the British brand!”
Joe Stanley says Europe is as important as ever, both when importing and exporting food!
We absolutely need to nurture trade links,” he says. “There’s a reason America is so desperate to sign a trade deal with us – because we’re a wealthy nation that imports a lot of food.
“It’s taken generations to foster relationships with our European partners to get the food system we have. Liz Truss thinks, ‘oh, Kuwait eats a lot of lamb, let’s go there’. Europe is full of wealthy people, and we should want to sell them our food.
“I’m sure people don’t want to go back to a diet of potatoes and cabbage. We were a culinary backwater. Everyone expects to be able to access a decent range of food. Sure, we should buy seasonal, and be local, but it cannot be only about that, realistically.”
The farmer and broadcaster Gareth Wyn Jones says the 'buy British' discourse is largely positive. After all, he says, last year was one of the best years for lamb, which was “up £1 per kilo”.
“I think it’s a really good thing. People are getting behind British agriculture. It’s about bloody time. We have a lot of bridges to cross.
“We should be adding to it – salad, fruit, veg. We need to be building that British economy on what we’re growing and eating. In the bigger picture we’ll be more sustainable, more seasonal, and with no added cost. We shouldn’t have strawberries in December and French beans from Kenya.”
But Wyn Jones adds that while the buying British sentiment is a welcome one, so too is continuing to nurture links with Europe.
“Diversity is good for food. We do have to ask ourselves, when it comes to cheaper food, ‘how is that produced?’ Do we want avocados brought in from Mexico, where its popularity is causing problems.
“But yes, as some who put Welsh lamb into Europe, I don’t want trade to stop. It’s one of the best products in the world. That’s why it’s imported. And yes, it works both ways. French Camembert. Spanish ham. Wine.
“But carrots – there is no reason why all our carrots shouldn’t be British. I was a Remainer. I want to stay in Europe. I’m not Nigel Farage screaming about buying British. But I’m also a farmer who cares about the environment, so there is a valid point to be made, however it’s dressed up.”
When it comes to carrots, we’re pretty good, actually. The British Carrot Growers Association says the UK grows approximately 800,000 tonnes of carrots annually and is self-sufficient for 11 months of the year.
Patterns get a little more drastic when it comes to food that favours a warmer locale. British tomato production amounts to about 92,000 metric tonnes per year, which is about a fifth of the total volume sold in the country in that timeframe, according to the British Tomato Growers’ Association.
We need to import over 400,000 tonnes of fresh tomatoes every year to meet demand. “The retail value of British tomato production... is around £190 million out of a total retail market
The link is very evident from the discussion sites exhorting people to buy British.
It might turn-off those who identify as Remainers, but isn't it ultimately a good thing?
After all, when it comes to sustainability, limiting food miles and making the most of our lush pastures, sought after since before the Roman empire, are only good.
Granted we should be elevating our food sector, which has, over recent decades, been evolving, diversifying, and improving in quality, and as the pandemic has shown, there is much to be said for shorter supply lines.
But just far can the 'buy British' exhortations get us?
If we applied it to all our purchases, would we have the food to get by?
In short, no, we would run out by August, according to experts!
The National Farmers’ Union says we are just over 60% efficient, and that is talking generally.
When it comes to vegetables, we grow less than 50% of what we consume, and fruit is even less, we produce just 15% of what we eat!
“For an island nation, being able to feed our population is absolutely critical,” NFU president Minette Batters said recently.
“Even as a global trading nation, shocks can expose fragilities in any reliance on imports.
We all experienced the impact of this during lockdown!
“Imports will always play a crucial role in our food system but our own self-sufficiency must be paid more attention by the government. It is stagnating. We sit now at only 64% self-sufficiency, having fallen from over 75% in the mid-1980s.”
There are lots of reasons for this fall, and, granted, some of them are down to cheaper goods, such as Danish bacon, and Polish apples, being shipped in. There are arguments to suggest concentrating on British pork and apples would be a positive repositioning of resources.
But since the 1980s, the British food system has also become a whole lot more adventurous. French Camembert is basically a staple now, and slices of Iberico ham are hardly luxuries.
We should probably not regress!
The farmer and author Joe Stanley says there has to be balance: “Is buying British fundamentally better? Just because it’s grown here doesn’t make it more sustainable.
“There is a lot to be proud about when it comes to British produce. We have the highest welfare standards in the world, some of the highest quality meat. When it comes to sustainability, let’s hope people buy British, and shop local, and support our industry. British consumers have been traditionally concerned with price, which is a more American mindset than a European one. So there’s a lot to celebrate if people are paying more attention to food.
“But it’s also a huge shame that the buy British mindset, this Union Jack patriotism, is getting tied up with nationalism.
The petty flag use we see in our government is altering things!
“We’re having these conversations about buying British, and at the same time we are straying into an unfortunate nationalistic territory.
cont
Good to hear from you Zambian & Lynny,
It is not just food. On the ‘Buy British’ Facebook group, recent requests for advice on UK-sourced homemade goods include everything from Lancashire sofa cushions to ‘leisure batteries’ power sources for mobile homes
Food, though, as it so often is, has become the foremost application in a new surge towards supporting British industry.
Since Brexit, there has been a tectonic shift in consumerism as shoppers look to champion UK-made goods, aware as they are perhaps of the additional costs of trading with Europe, of the benefits of contributing to the national economy, and possibly also to supplement national pride.
Whatever the reason, this collective desire is very apparent.
Recently, there was concern in one Facebook group that Quaker Oats are apparently made in Dublin!
Soon, other members were suggesting supermarket-own varieties, namely those produced by Aldi and Lidl, which are milled here on British shores, and are apparently still “smooth and creamy” when stirred with water as with milk.
Another social media post celebrated a bag of granulated sugar that displayed the words “proudly grown in Britain” on top of a Union Jack!
One man shared a picture of a chocolate bar, going so far as to explain the fact it is not only manufactured in Stoke-on-Trent, but is also the work of a British-owned company.
A double win, there, for British pride.
That said the supermarkets in Britain have long sold goods featuring Union Jack flags, they have espoused a homely agricultural ideal when it comes to beef, talking of 'Welsh lamb' and 'West Country beef', local cheeses and English wines, today they are maximising this output.
There are an increasing number of flags on packaging.
Aldi and Lidl, possibly in a move maybe to counteract impressions they are German and reliant more on imports, have been heavier still with their trumpeting, it seems.
Both have pages dedicated to British food on their websites, pledging to do more to buy from internal suppliers.
Traditionally, the paradigm of culinary culture has been firmly cast as seasonal and artisan. It is about looking to our close countryside, where fruit and vegetables grow and are packed into handsome delivery boxes, and it is about recognising the tireless endeavour of the farmers who bring us the tenderest of steaks, if not the Romanians who pick our summer strawberries, a job we only want to do on Saturday afternoons for fun.
Running alongside this now, however, is this apparent shift towards British food not just for its cultural relevance, not only as an ethical, sustainable choice, but as a distinct and robust lifestyle choice, reflecting a pro-Brexit stance.
Cont
Interesting Tornado- the big question is when it turns... about 1 hour after US opening? Good time to be watching for sure...
Other parties have gone "woke", reacted way too much to twitter etc which represents such a small part of the total vote. Labour now gaining "woke" Uni voters and high earning middle class, Tory gaining the working class. Opposition focus is poor and misguided.
He called it and was spot on last weekend. Have got ammo buying for this retreat when it settles to support next rally. (Thanks to sells Monday to Wednesday).