Telegraph Article1 Jun 2021 11:27
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/questor-either-gold-price-miners-share-price-wrong-say-back/
Questor: either the gold price or this miner’s share price is wrong: we say back the miner
Questor share tip: Centamin has been a serial disappointment but even its curtailed targets for this year imply a yield of almost 6pc
Gold is hovering around the $1,900 an ounce mark, which means the precious metal’s price has risen by 55pc over the past five years and trades at barely 7pc below last autumn’s record high. By contrast, shares in Centamin, the gold miner, are no higher than they were in June 2016 and stand at barely half the peak reached last year. It is therefore tempting to argue that either the gold price or the share price is “wrong” – and given the current macroeconomic backdrop this column’s inclination is to believe that the share price is too low rather than the gold price too high, even allowing for Centamin’s history of operational disappointment.
America’s Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are showing little or no inclination to tighten monetary policy. This is despite the fact that near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing were described as emergency policies when they were introduced in the West in 2008-09 and despite signs that inflation is gathering – last month’s 4.2pc year-on-year rise in the US consumer price index was the fastest rate of advance in more than a decade.
The central banks’ view is that this surge will be temporary because it is partly the result of pent-up demand and supply-chain dislocations as lockdowns ease and partly due to the low base for comparison offered by the economic downturn of 2020. That view may be right. But commodity prices are rising, factory gate prices are on the up and consumer price indices are surging. If wages start to rise sharply we could indeed be in a situation in which inflation is truly making its return after lying dormant for the thick end of 40 years. Real assets – commodities and property – or paper claims on real assets via shares in miners, for example, provided portfolio protection in the 1970s as the cost of living galloped higher, so those investors who do fear the return of inflation could be forgiven for researching gold miners such as Centamin once more. That said, those who see inflation as a transitory phenomenon will be unmoved.
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