The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Strange but the address's ending with je do not get though.
Anyone else noticed ?
Growth is now returning and the US jobs market figs issued today shows that the stimuli is working to get things started. With any talk of rising interest rates for a year or so to go we can expect a good run in from here. I can see we are now recovering with some support, well that has been the case for the past few days anyway. I am happy to wait however as I see a long sustained recovery, which may accelerate with a positive release that is over due!
https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1411026892002631682?s=20 ;)
Nice rise in CEY and AU today.
Hoping it will continue.
GLA.
https://twitter.com/CentaminPlc/status/1410962057802010625
Our CEO, #MartinHorgan, features in the latest edition of @MiningJournal where he candidly discusses with @TomHoskyns the quality of #SukariGoldMine; our clear plans to unlock further value; and the route to delivering growth & diversification: https://loom.ly/liKXJT0
#CEY #gold
------------------------------->>>>
and my response...
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1410991071996170246
B4 @CentaminPlc divests Burkina it must disclose true resource
Around Batie there's 600k+ meters drilled including Napelepera&Wadaradoo
CEO Horgan —where's the maiden resource?
@Jefferies
@rbccm
@MorganStanley
@PeelHunt
@TelegraphInvest
@DavidBurton1971
@proactive_UK
@TMSreach
Hi Bonker,
Some conflicting opinions it seems on NFP ?
"Gold posted mild gains [earlier this week] despite ADP payrolls beating expectations [on Wednesday], providing a good preview for Friday's numbers," says a trading note from Swiss refiners and finance group MKS Pamp.
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-070220213
Possibly Marmot will posts later with his view on the NFP?
Look at the June "jobs" breakdown - horrific.
Depression/stagflation at best:
https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1410979487378984963?s=20
Yup - bottom line right now is they've gotta break $1,780 - if they can't then it's going up, period.
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire breaks down the gold and silver markets in the wake of the Basel III June 28th implementation date.
The precious metals expert addresses differing opinions on Basel III, explains his bullish outlook for the historic ruling and makes the case for a gold price re evaluation.
Andrew Maguire is also joined by proud Wall Street Silver member and sound money advocate, Jim Forsy the, to talk all things silver and discuss the latest initiatives of his non-profit organisation, Citizens for Sound Money (C4SM).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYUdqE0t9-c
Sorry typo title should read "Writing on the wall"
Indeed it would but we must remember there is so much un-allocated paper out there the investment banks have to try and cover.
On the other hand it may cause some panic buying of physical AU, to try and cover.
A web of deception.
GLA.
It would be nice to see Gold burst through $1800 early on this uptrend. That would leave $1800 as strong support for any little pullback.
Teachers +269k lol
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3695246-centamin-get-going-good
1. Introduction
Here is another interesting analysis by my fellow countryman Kees Dekker, and it is about Centamin Plc, the Egyptian gold producer. Notwithstanding the omnipresent jurisdiction risk (in my view Kees has been generous with a NPV discount of 5%, which is acceptable for running operations in top 20 Fraser Survey jurisdictions, however Egypt doesn't belong there, it doesn't even have a rating), Kees shows why Centamin might be facing challenges regarding grade and production (this might even be a case of ongoing grade variance when looking at mined grades vs reserve grades), and might be severely overvalued. It is quite a long read as usual, but it gives a good impression of the actions and communications of management, and of Centamin as an investment in my view.
All presented charts are provided by Kees Dekker, unless stated otherwise.
All pictures are company material, unless stated otherwise.
2. Executive Summary
This is an update of a report published on Seeking Alpha (“SA”) that went out under the title “Get Out While the Going is Good and earned the classification of Top Idea from SA. This valuation report, completed in November 2015, concluded that the best times were past for Centamin, with the company facing, among others, higher operating expenses associated with an increase in strip ratio and having to share the net free cash flow equally with its Egyptian parastatal partner.
The conclusion proved to be wrong in the short term with the share price appreciating in line with an improving gold price and the market not giving cognisance to the cash flow sharing that would start within two years.
https://criticalinvestor.eu/analysis/gold/kees-dekker-reviews-centamin-plc-analysis
Thank you for your explanation, the previous Centamin management regime are undeserving of your loyalty, although, having said that I understand your point about trying to keep the share holders happy with output.
I'm sure this wasn’t your intention, but this statement seems to imply that we shares holders were in some way informed of risk, or given options of condoning the sacrificing of fit for purpose, appropriate and safe mining methods at Sukuri in preference for increased output.
I was certainly unaware of Pardey and Co ever making share holder’s aware of the risks being taken on their behalf to inflate production and share price.
I feel confident that had share holders ever been informed of a choice of running the open pit in a safe manner using the appropriate mining methods, or throwing caution to the wind and "Winging it" in favour of short time gain with the inevitable risk of catastrophic events involved, then theywould have been horrified and most likely wondered just what bunch of chancer's were running Sukari, but certainly chosen for the former option of how Sukari should be operated!
There is no excuse; the previous management were guilty of putting their own self interests first by "Glossing over the facts" and completely disregarding their professional responsibilities to the company and its share holders!
One analyst who was honest enough to flag up some serious concerns and question what was taking place at Sukari was disregarded and discredited by Pardey, and bysome others who claimed he didn’t understand about mining issues!
I am also guilty, stupidly in hindsight of choosing to believe that surely Pardey knows what he is doing, as it turns out he certainly did, and Kees Dekker was proven to be right in just about every respect!
So I have to agree with the paragraphs from part of Cowichans Martin Horgan interview below.
However, the company's bumpy performance since 2018 - when it suffered three production guidance misses due to operational issues - means some are yet to be convinced!
"I just can't trust those guys - they don't do what they say they're going to do" was the verdict of one London-based analyst who wished to remain anonymous!”
As far as I am concerned during the previous managements tenure they purposely deceived share holders on so many occasions, yet after every deception became apparent Pardey pledged lessons had been learned things were going to be different, communications with share holders would be improved, it never happened and instead they yet again betrayed the share holders trust and yet again Kees Dekker’s concerns were proven right!
So as I already stated Martin Horgan and his team have a lot on their plate in Egypt, but they deserve the chance to prove themselves as really being the new order to share holders, so I wait optimistically once again!
For those who are interested see the Kees Dekker reports I have posted from 2015 & 2018
Et voila
Quite so as a long term holder it certainly seems that Martin Horgan brings qualities that were were severely lacking,even devoid in the past such as integrity ,truthfulness ,professionalism, methodology and a determination to do things properly!
Yup - 10 minutes until the casino kicks off again.
Just one point on the NFP though: Bad jobs = more bbbbrrrrrr, good jobs = more inflation.
This is how we get PM bull cycles.
I have no knowledge of mining / geology.
Having just read the interview posts below, I get the impression of a man who believes in ‘slow and steady wins the race.’ Sensible and logical decision making.
Given the current position of the share price, the POG and the global financial situation, I am happy to have my money invested with a company featuring that kind of management.
His words provide a tactful condemnation of previous management-practices. - Practices that were condemned by many of us at the time, but equally, supported by posters/experts with mining experience as I recall.
Gold movement sometimes at 13:30- 700k est. A miss it generally goes up, and vice versa.
Shares on the major European stock traded higher in the premarket on Friday, as the investors awaited June's nonfarm payroll report from the United States.
Apart from one of the key economic indicators, the traders will monitor the second day of OPEC+ talks, as well as the remarks of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.
The DAX rose 0.15% at 8:00 am CET, while the FTSE 100 went up by 0.26% at the same time. Concurrently, the CAC 40 increased by 0.22%. The euro and the pound were flat versus the dollar, selling for 1.18408 and 1.37636 at 8:00 am CET.
Breaking the News / BU
For what it’s worth I maintain total faith in Martin Horgan
Happy Friday y’al
Off topic, but on topic for some on this forum. The aging (developed) world and what does it mean.
Well-known geopolitical strategist and author Peter Zeihan joins FS Insider to build on the topic of rapidly slowing population growth and why this is a pretty big deal. Peter says one of the major problems is that economic models and the financial system as a whole is predicated on constant growth. So what happens when populations start to see a sudden decline in the ratio of young to old?
https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/19990/peter-zeihan-why-world-about-radically-change
Will do. Thanks for this information. Recapping, Martin Horgan is employed by the shareholders of the company. Its good business sense to listen to the owners of the business, a minor detail which is missed by many in the mining industry. Some of the CEO's tend to operate under the assunmtion that they have been appointed by a "higher power".
best
the gnome
For anyone wishing to comment on the interview why not send an email to
alexandra.carse@centamin.je
or reply to Mining Journal's tweet (make sure to tag @CentaminPlc)
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1410735674660036612
It's apparent from the interview that Mr Horgan does indeed consider feedback from investors concerned about the dividend being in danger — great, but what of the other issues raised by investors? Are we not worthy of a response?