Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
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The share price should follow the gold price...it it had any sense.
My comments are tongue in cheek and a parody of the stupidity being exhibited endlessly by the mass media (hysteria) machines. Really they have been, and remain, the most worrying global pandemic!
Edward Bernays would be restless in his grave at what is going on. Edward's (for the unitiiated) best-known campaigns include (not limited to!!!) a 1929 effort to promote female smoking by branding extra thin cigarettes as (extra sexy) feminist "Torches of Freedom", and his work for the United Fruit Company in the 1950s, connected with the CIA-orchestrated overthrow of the democratically elected Guatemalan government in 1954 (we dont want to go there! as its a long story)
Go gold !
best
the gnome
Yes we all are nursing losses, although I entered at £1.03. The thing that worries me most is that the single mine they have only has a 12 year lifespan ..with no proven prospects on the horizon ..on this basis its surely a speculative share. .A dividend yield of nearly 7% won't compensate for a share that could be valued at zero within 12 years unless the licences yield fruit or in this case Gold ..or have I got something wrong ? Whatever the answer , this is still a speculative share and buy and hold forever is foolhardy. I am looking to make a stealth move , in and hopefully out with a 35% profit maybe and as quickly as possible given its fundamental resources weakness
Wow ..quite a bleak picture you present ..you are probably right in all of your assertions apart from the share price ..this will act on momentum and at the moment it is still downwards although less so
The Reserve Bank has discovered its projections are overly optimisitic and worng (surprise?), and the realty being painted is very pessimisitic, and will be revealed in the next 3-6 months. Especially if you are in Tourism, Hospitalities and Universities (but they already have been "optimised" for the new economy), ... and now the Iron Ore and Copper price is tanking. AU$ diving.... on the race to the bottom.
Western Australia’s mining giants are facing allegations they have covered up sexual assaults and harassment by failing to adhere to reporting obligations under workplace safety laws...another "shock" to the resource industry, after the blowing up of sacred sites! and the increasing impossibilities of getting clearances to do any work (exploration, site development, expansions) on the surface in Australia. Drugs/gun running could be next? Higher EBITDA margins, and no ground distrubance...LOL
The HYPE is never ending: Latitude CEO Ahmed Fahour is confident Australia will hit its vaccination targets and is preparing (hinted strongly?!!) for a wave of “revenge spending” in Sydney in the run-up to Christmas as consumers finally can enjoy the things they have been deprived of during lockdown. .. debt?..reality please? ...HYPE of course ...because earlier this month he paid $200 million for a tiny start-up called Symple, deterred neither by its dubious spelling nor its mere $5 million in revenue...away we go...ho ho...OPM's.
A little more than a year ago, epidemiologist Tony Blakely was one of the loudest scientific voices supporting Premier Daniel Andrews’ bitterly contested campaign to eliminate COVID-19 in Victoria (after his initial distasters which he failed to take responsibility for, and thats another story of course, he could not remember? think 8 second attention spand, 5 second memory?).
Professor Tony Blakely, previously a supporter of aggressive elimination, says a more moderate approach could lead to better health outcomes (gulp) On Monday, with police pepper spray from a weekend anti-lockdown protest in Melbourne lingering in the city’s consciousness, the Melbourne University professor took the daring step of suggesting what amounts to Victorian heresy: the time may have come to stop battling COVID-19. Probably has worked out that as a tax payer he (or descendants) is going to have to pay for it LOL..for the next 100 years?
Bitcoin topped $US50,000 on Monday for the first time since mid-May as the spread of the delta variant of COVID-19 forces central banks to push back timetables for tightening liquidity taps. Liquidity, there is that word again.
And gold? My medicine has taken hold...
Could I boldly suggest that it will go higher, and much higher?
best
the Gnome
Major stock markets in Europe traded higher premarket on Monday with the focus on today's batch of economic data. In politics, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that additional sanctions may be imposed against Russia if Moscow uses Nord Stream 2 as a "weapon" against Ukraine.
The FTSE 100 gained 0.58%, while the DAX increased 0.37% at 7:58 am CET. The CAC 40 was up 0.69% at the same time.
The euro and the pound climbed 0.16% and 0.23% respectively against the dollar at 7:57 am CET, changing hands for $1.17181 and $1.36548.
Breaking the News / MD
Thanks, Tony. Yes, Yellen raised interest rates back then and gold went up. I knew something interesting happened in Dec 2015.
What interests me at the moment is that the Commercials are very short on the dollar.
https://goldseek.com/article/cot-gold-silver-usdx-report-august-20-2021
They are also happy to take longs on silver and platinum, but are very short gold.
https://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/other_sof.htm
The last time they were so short on the dollar was when gold bottomed at $1670s earlier this year and then the dollar dropped and gold rose to $1920s.
https://goldseek.com/article/cot-gold-silver-usdx-report-february-19-2021
We could see a temporary top for the DXY at around 94 - 94.5 before a turn down and rise in metals and commodities. Dollar to 87? Gold to double top $2075?
I'm waiting to buy some very cheap companies IF we get the turn - I could even get some more Centamin but probably wont.
Maybe Jackson Hole will be the trigger. We'll see. I shall be looking in the MSM for a sign - dollar to the moon; gold down the pan. The trouble is, it ain't free markets any more.
All this excitment would have to happen when I'm at my most busy!
Take care.
Red sparrow
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/yellen-sworn-fed-chair-succeeding-bernanke-202043573--finance.html
Yellen replaced Bernanke and it was Yellen who tried to raise rates in Dec 2015 when rates went up. Bernanke tapering brought gold lower in 2013. Nobody has a clue how things are going to play out but a lot of analysts are calling it a non-event. Centamin divi is the following week and the grown ups come back to the trading desks from holidays and daily volumes increase again. A case of collecting the divi and trying to work out what happens in 2022. Some of us were expecting a 5-10% growth improvement for 2022 and a good recovery on the AISC outlay for CEY. This may buffer any downside on gold if it happens from here.
Hi Goldgnome,
You make a great point about changing the focus to poverty reduction and economic development over trying to force peace in Africa. Although I suppose keeping aid from being confiscated by the unscrupulous can also be a battle.
And regarding B2Gold - I too commend them for sticking to principles and demanding their legal entitlements - even while messing with Mali could jeopardize over 50% of their annual gold production. Guess that's why B2Gold also has their foot in the door over in Egypt. Diversification is survival. Cheers
The Jackson Hole meeting is taking place next week - 26th - 28th. Could this be the spur for precious metals to resume their climb? When Bernanke started 'tapering' in Dec 2015, that was the low for gold and rose until Aug last year - completely the opposite to what everyone thought! Same again, please.
Thanks gnome, so in short B2 didn't pay the ,officialdom ,or not enough now they get their lesson.
I think this is an issue of principle for b2gold. The loud rumour seems to be the Minister of Mines has been lining his and his pals pockets ... so to speak.
Corruption is the major issue in Mali, it is endemic, and from this all else flows. One of the reasons the coup in 2012 happened was because of the lack of any money coming into places like Timbuktu, for community schools, hospitals, and preservation of their heritage. Where did the money go....to bank accounts in one of the Treasure Islands wouldn't be a bad guess
The many dimensions of Mali’s current crisis (pleural) are connected. Rule of law issues, conflicts over land tenure, organized crime and jihadist expansion are all interconnected issues rather than separate challenges that have hit the country separately. Corruption is at the heart of the problems of mistrust that allowed these issues to spiral out of control.
Dont blame Islam, and the unemployed mercenaries who seized the opportunity to grab the great cash flow business in the trade of drug running and human trafficking, and then didnt want to give a cut to the corrupt government.
https://www.u4.no/publications/mali-overview-of-corruption-and-anti-corruption-2020
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/19/a-coup-wont-end-malis-corruption-and-insecurity/
https://www.one.org/international/blog/panama-paper-reveals-africa-losing-billions-to-corruption-and-bribery/
Sad? if instead of wasting us$1b per year (!) on peace keeping, invested the us$1b in schools, infrastructure, job creation...
"The total approved
budget for the 2020-2021 peacekeeping year is $6.58
billion. Operations with the highest annual budgets are
MINUSMA (Mali), at $1.18 billion; "
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10597.pdf
..............................................................................................................then Mali would be a better place.
good luck to b2gold
the gnoem
Hi Rebess - I agree Barrick's CEO must be acutely aware of the dangers that lie in wait for the unsuspecting in Egypt and is wise to act accordingly. Now that I've read your post I can see at least two meanings to his phrase 'tidying up'. One as you say - getting the legal contractual issues sorted and the other (now that I think about it less likely) boasting of his company's 'sweeping' the lion's share of the best concessions.
On the former meaning I found this recent development between the Mali government and B2Gold to be cathartic in a not-so-nice schadenfreude sort of way:
------------------------->>>
The Company [B2Gold] is currently involved in a dispute with the Malian Government related to renewal of the Menankoto exploration permit which forms part of the Anaconda Area and is located 20 km north of the Fekola Mine licence area. The Company strongly believes that Menankoto is entitled to a one-year renewal of the Menankoto Permit under applicable law. After ongoing discussions with the Malian Government were not ultimately successful in resolving the situation, on June 24, 2021 the Company announced that it had formally commenced arbitration proceedings against the Republic of Mali. The arbitration has been commenced pursuant to the arbitration clause...will be conducted by the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes in Paris, France. In addition to pursuing arbitration under the Convention, the Company may pursue, as required, all other available legal remedies.
https://www.b2gold.com/news/b2gold-reports-strong-q2-2021-results-with-continued-strong-total-gold-production-of-211612-oz-5-above-budget-on-track-to-meet-or-exceed-the-upper-end-of-its-annual-production-guidance-range-of-970000-to-1030000-oz
<--------------
Imagine, B2Gold has mined several million ounces of gold in Mali since 2017 — you'd think that would give them some leverage or at least good will with the Mali government. It's certainly a bold move by B2Gold's CEO to take their disagreement to international arbitration within months of the impasse.
The question is will pressing the nuclear button explode in B2Gold's face ? The disagreement is simply about a non producing exploration site — yet it has the potential to impact their nearby 500k+ ounce/year gold mine. High stakes!
Barrick and their legal-team will be fully aware of the Egypt v Centamin court case, it's outcome or lack of it as the case may be and the implications it has had for Centamin.- I have no doubt that they will be negotiating with eyes wide-open.
Agree with his drift Cowichan. - If there's one thing the CC has taught us it's that the T&C's have to be clear an incontestable.
'It's now nearly a year that we’ve been working with the Egyptians to get the tender sorted out because, again, we don’t want to just acquire a tender. We want to know the rules of the game.'
'We were able to tidy up the exploration permits and we worked as an industry. One has to get good ground and to have the rules set properly so that you know that if you find something, you have the right to mine it.'
'All this is in contrast to the promotion of instant gratification that the hot market breeds, that same-old, same-old. When you get to the rules being set properly and you find something, there are opportunities because, as I always say to my team, if there's one thing I’d like to do is to find another Morila.'
'If I don’t, I’d like to find the person who has found another Morila before he knows he’s found it.'
Then a third one is the opportunity to buy high-quality assets because mining is so inefficient, and that’s more opportunistic. The first two are really in our hands, and to do that, you’ve got to teach people what a good asset looks like because so many people in our industry actually don’t even know how to calculate an NPV. They talk about it, but they don't really understand the impact.
We’ve probably looked at three dozen gold projects to due diligence and of those, at least 30 haven’t provided the return.
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/friendly-south-african-face-could-quickly-attract-exploration-investment-bristow-2021-08-11/rep_id:3650
----------------------->>>
My Thoughts: Egypt is soon going to be a bigger deal in the gold mining space than industry observers currently think.
I agree that the share price doesn’t reflect the value of the company just now as on this years profits should be half what it is, but this year is hopefully a very abnormal year and if AISC falls back as much as Mr Tibbles hopes to anywhere near where it was before, as (if) ounces rise, then at these gold prices we should be worth 50% more, so the value in between seems about right particularly as gold stocks are anticipating falling gold prices and rising mine inflation, in both of which hopefully they will be wrong. We have been on a downward staircase for a year now, pausing and then lurching further down and there is nothing yet to suggest this is over either in gold price, costs or ounces but hopefully we will turn sometime not too distant! Have a get weekend
What I was inferring was if the Dollar drops or even worse crashes, all stocks will drop because of panic and short covering / margin .
I am not suggesting that will necessarily happen.
At the moment trading volumes are very low ,two weeks time when vacations are over there may be a large upturn.
Last year August was a huge improvement for Gold because of the lockdowns and virus so it was a freakish year.
We all know the share price doesnt reflect the value of the company,but our reasons dont count.Some loss making companies share price have done very well in recent months due to the Ftse at around all time highs,but we are going down and down each week and even when gold recovers we dont follow it up,so something is amiss
So if like Mrbond suggest that things could get much worse where does that leave us perhaps 70p
I agree
Don't know how long you have held this share but the long term holders will remember it was at more than this when the POG was lower, stage four was still being built , the CAPEX had yet to be repaid, profit share was way down the road and dividends were a dream for the future!
Then there were a couple of revolutions , explosive and fuel shortages, allegations of corruption and an invalid Sukari license regarding original 160sq km initial area, withdrawal of agreed fuel subsidy putting up operational costs and barely a thought of a solar plan t ant time soon !
So consider now, a mine still producing 430, 000 ozs at near $1800 POG with other concessions close by granted, West African reserves confirmed, yet to be exploited or sold . $300 million in reserve, no hedging , the allegation's made in court face admitted to be groundless by ex politician making them,the Sukarii license enshrined in law , solar power coming on stream soon, new CEO with a credible strategy to safeguard and stabilise future Sukari production at around 500,000 ozs at potentially higher gold prices.
The rest of the market may drop, although common sense rather than market mentality suggests that there is no justification for the present share price let alone ant further drop.
I dare say some some will consult the charts or whatever other predictive methods that use to try and state otherwise but that is there prerogative.
Sukari production is being restored and with it AISC costs will fall, but perhaps more importantly and what will help the future share price is the restoration by Martin Horgan's strategy of market and investor confidence in the running of the company for the future!
Posted by Daniel Gleeson on 12th August 2021
Centamin’s Sukari gold mine in Egypt is in the process of upgrading its fleet of Caterpillar 785C haul trucks with “lightweight truck trays” designed by VR Steel and fabricated by Egypt-based Aresco.
In 2020, the miner trialled the use of these high production trays, which demonstrated a 10% gain in truck productivity through larger payload and faster cycle time. This led to a decision for a broader roll-out in 2021 across the haul fleet, Centamin said in its 2020 sustainability report.
The introduction of these trays, designed so the floor can be replaced for extended overall service life, are part of the company’s plans to improve cycle loading times and truck/loader matching at the gold operation. They also bring sustainability benefits to the operation given they reduce the truck body weight, increase the payload and improve fuel and tyre efficiency.
Centamin, in the 2020 sustainability report, confirmed it had placed an order for the local fabrication of 44 high production trays to fit the haul fleet in accordance with OEM specifications.
https://im-mining.com/2021/08/12/centamin-working-with-vr-steel-real-mining-and-aresco-on-truck-tray-rollout-at-sukari/
THS offers far better value than slp on all metrics.
You have to remember the stock prices in general have been artificially boosted by QE.
If QE is tapered ,then everyone may be in for a surprise.
Not a pleasant one. IMO.
And that’s at 1780 usd gold price!!
Canetoad
I think most of us are sitting on a paper loss, as the share price hasnt been this low for the last few years apart from the Covid blip for a couple of weeks in March 2019
What worries me is if the share price doesnt rise quite soon and the markets in general fall then so wil CEY despite the price of gold